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How will the April 8, 2011, U.S. federal budget battle be resolved?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Budget is adopted by 8 April 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.67%

Actual: 0.00%

Continuing resolution adopted

(closed)

Predicted: 83.46%

Actual: 100.00%

Government shutdown occurs

(closed)

Predicted: 15.87%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

April 08, 2011 @ 08:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

106

Most by: SneakyPete (30 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Up Date

SneakyPete   •   Wed Mar 16 2011 at 08:46pm PDT

Congress, both the House and Senate, are going on a one-week break starting 21 March 2011. Must be nice, with all the peoples work, needing to be done. Will Congress drag this battle until 2012’s budget needs to be done?

SneakyPete   •   Thu Mar 17 2011 at 09:00am PDT

There has not been a budget passed since 2009. This will be, the 7th continuing resolution, with how many more to go this year?

mvguy   •   Thu Mar 17 2011 at 04:14pm PDT

Well, members of Congress are saying the one passed today by the Senate will be the last one for this budget cycle. I’ll believe it when I see it, and that’s apparently the viewpoint of participants here as well.

SneakyPete   •   Thu Mar 17 2011 at 04:19pm PDT

I agree full hardily with your comment. I do not believe, that the end is in sight, yet. Much more in-fighting, will take place yet, in my opinion.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 29 2011 at 08:14pm PDT

It appears that the Democratic Senate team may be pushing for a Government shut down rather than a CR or passing a budget. We will know in a week or so.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Apr 03 2011 at 10:58am PDT

Why a Government Shutdown Isn’t Likely … John Dickerson:
“If a government shutdown is averted, it will be the third time the fears about a crisis will have been unfounded. The reason will have been the same all along. Despite all of the talk and threats of a government closure, both sides have always known that a shutdown would be disastrous for everyone.”

mvguy   •   Sun Apr 03 2011 at 04:56pm PDT

We’ll see. I think Congress will approve a budget soon, but I’m not convinced it will happen by Friday night. I can envision a scenario in which there’s a not-very-disruptive weekend shutdown while the final details are being hashed out.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 05 2011 at 03:05pm PDT

I believe you have hit the nail on the head. I really think that Speaker Boehner and Senator Reid are both going to try and seek a budget solution, as a government shutdown, draws near. Whether it occurs, before or after the 8th, remains in doubt. Either way it goes, the blame game will continue on and on.

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 10:03am PDT

A clarification that’s probably not necessary, but just in case: A shutdown will be considered to have occurred even if it’s quite brief. If President Obama signs the budget bill at 12:01 a.m. Saturday, for example, a shutdown will still be deemed to have occurred.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 01:17pm PDT

Sounds good to me. A “Shutdown” of one minute, one day, or one week, is a “Shutdown”. The way things are developing, I believ it is going to be an academic issue. Neither side are wanting to give in. We shall see at 11:59pm EDST, what the outcome, will be.

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 02:02pm PDT

I’m not sure how long it takes for a bill to be passed and signed once there’s an agreement. And I doubt if anything is going to be passed with a voice vote. So we should know before midnight — but maybe not before this market closes. It’ll definitely be interesting to see what happens.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 02:22pm PDT

Agreed. Particularly if anything the Senate passes, which I doubt will occur, would have to go back to the House for approval. I also agree and doubt that anything is going to be passed with a voice in the Senate vote. Will be, a long night, I would assume.

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 08:39pm PDT

I’ll have to take back what I said. The Senate passed the resolution on a voice vote. The House will have to do the same if it is to meet the midnight deadline.

Tom501   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 08:54pm PDT

Let me get a clarification from you. Is there a shutdown even if the CR is effective as of midnight and there is no actual shutdown even though it was not voted on until after midnight? That would seem odd to me to cash out for a shutdown even though it didn’t occur.

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:04pm PDT

Good question. The terms of the market are as follows: “The resolution of this market depends on what happens by April 8. Any events transpiring after that date are irrelevant.”

Because of the number of inkles I have at stake, if it appears that any decision on this is going to be objected to, I may let a neutral party decide.

Tom501   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:15pm PDT

I have a small stake in this market, almost anyone that is going to look at it at this point will have at least some stake in it. Considering there isn’t going to be shutdown and there wasn’t a continuing resolution signed into law neither was there a full budget completed it almost looks like a refund would be the best option to take.

If I had to argue a result I would say the CR is the most applicable followed by the option for a full budget compromise reached since it appears it has been reached and the delay is solely do to processing. The least likely outcome would seem a shutdown since it seems apparent that no shutdown is to occur despite the technicality that the legislation had not completed the processes for approval.

Considering the complexity of the issue and the unforeseen way this played out I would accept whatever ruling you decide on.

dabee47   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:18pm PDT

If you’ll allow me a point of congressional nerdery… :)

Technically, the House is still going to pass the CR on April 8th. The “legislative day” began when they convened April 8th, and because they never adjourned (only recessed), it’s still April 8th as far as the Congress and parliamentarian are concerned.

I’m just sayin’ April 8th may have come and gone in the real world, but it’s still alive and kickin’ in the world of congress… :P

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:25pm PDT

But is it still April 8 by the House’s reckoning if Obama signs the bill after adjournment? And/or, when the president signs a bill, is there a date on it? And is the official time standard time or daylight time? Will any respected news media say there was a technical shutdown? So many questions …

Tom501   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:36pm PDT

I agree, I don’t envy you trying to sort this one out since there is no way anyone would have predicted that they wouldn’t have the resolution or budget before the deadline but that there still wouldn’t be a shutdown. I suppose the house could simplify things for you by voting down the CR.

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:40pm PDT

They passed it overwhelmingly. Here’s something interesting from MSNBC: “So was the government technically shut down for a few minutes before the House passed the bill and the president signed it? Nope, per the Office of Management and Budget …” http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/04/09/6437246-budget-chief-agencies-are-instructed-to-continue-their-normal-operations

Tom501   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:45pm PDT

The structure they used to avoid a shutdown doesn’t surprise me. I write contract language for a living and it is not unusual to have effective dates, or in this case an effective time which occurs prior to finalization.

mvguy   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:47pm PDT

And I betcha when you write contracts that one of your goals is to anticipate every possible way an event relevant to the contract could be interpreted and define your terms accordingly. In this case, I didn’t adequately define “shutdown,” and I didn’t anticipate the precise series of events as a possibility. I think I’ll call in an arbitrator …

Tom501   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:59pm PDT

I work with arbitrators and mediators as well. Now there are some interesting people. Yes I try and anticipate every possible outcome, I don’t know anyone who gets it right every time.

dabee47   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:56pm PDT

I’m pretty sure, when the president signs an “enrolled bill” (the parchment printed final copy of all legislation passed by the house and senate), the only date listed is that of the beginning of the Congress itself. By that I mean the 112th Congress, January 3, 2011.

The NARA (National Archives…) probably puts a date of some sort on it denoting when it actually became public law.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Apr 08 2011 at 09:51pm PDT

12:50am Saturday morning and the CR is still in the House unsigned by the President.

mvguy   •   Sat Apr 09 2011 at 06:38am PDT

I remain undecided about how to cash out this market. The problem is that what happened in actuality — that no resolution was adopted by the end of April 8 but that there was no shutdown — was not one of the three options that this market offered.

My inclination at this point is to cash this out as “continuing resolution adopted” with the following rationale: Notwithstanding everything I’ve said in the comments, the intent of the market, and the way the question would be understood by most people, was over how the budget issue would be resolved, not the technical aspects of timing, and the headlines in country’s newspapers this morning is that a deal averted a shutdown. Also, the resolution passed and to be signed by President Obama makes the funding retroactive to the start of the day.

I can understand arguments for a different resolution of this market, so one possibility would be to refund the market. But I’m not sure that would be fair either to the many who have participated over the past three weeks. Another option would be to deem that a shutdown occurred in some technical sense, and I can understand why someone would take that position.

So here’s what I am doing: I’m not making any final decision for at least 24 hours in order to get comments here. At that point, I will either cash out the market with “Continuing resolution adopted” at $100 or ask the Inkling administration to make a decision about the market.

I take no personal offense if anyone thinks this is the wrong approach.

I would point out, if it matters to anyone, that if I cash this out according to my inclination, it would be at a significant financial loss to me (well into the six digits). Fortunately, it’s play money, and this is only a game.

Comments are welcome.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Apr 09 2011 at 09:08am PDT

I am not sure when the President signed the CR, but am sure that it was well past, the midnight hour. But, as Tom501 stated, they (Congress), probaly had all bases covered to insure that a shutdown would not take place, even if the the CR was signed into law well after the 8th, which it was. Anyway it will be your call and we will have to live with it even we do not agree. I also took a good hit on this one, but as you say, it is only play money. Just hate to lose when I believe I was right.

Tom501   •   Sat Apr 09 2011 at 10:01am PDT

As I’ve stated before I have a bias in this so I would prefer one outcome over others but I believe you have accurately summed up the issues and how the events played out. This is only play money and I will respect any way you choose to resolve the market, the events as they occurred could not have been foreseen.

dabee47   •   Sat Apr 09 2011 at 01:36pm PDT

I agree w/ Tom and Pete. Whatever you decide is fine by me. It’s a tough and odd situation.

K1050   •   Sat Apr 09 2011 at 05:19pm PDT

I agree with your inclination to cash this out as “continuing resolution adopted”. The Budget was not adopted, so that’s not the answer. And, the government did not shutdown in any real sense, so I don’t think that accurately portrays what happened.

Good luck with your dilemma.

foobar   •   Sat Apr 09 2011 at 05:29pm PDT

I tend to agree with K1050 – and it is how my inklings are invested. But I would accept any decision. I did not expect this market to be so complicated…

DodgeStRegis   •   Mon Apr 11 2011 at 05:52pm PDT

Any further thoughts on this? Currently the government is running on a CR till Thursday . . . . There were no office closures pay checque delays or any other disruptions . . . . A shutdown did not occur . . . . The 2011 budget has not been adopted . . . I think you should cash out with CR at 100 . . . . Or at least refund it and add the option “other” next time

mvguy   •   Tue Apr 12 2011 at 09:26am PDT

I have just cashed out this market and sent the following note:

After much thought, I have decided to cash out this market with the result that a continuing resolution was adopted, even though technically that didn’t happen until President Obama signed the bill the next day. The problem is that none of the three options in the market occurred — there was no shutdown, and the budget has yet to be adopted. My other option was to refund the market. If you feel that that would have been the better decision, I would not be offended if you appeal my decision to the powers that be. I could have gone either way, but I think that the outcome I chose fits best with the spirit of the market. I can also assure you that my decision wasn’t made for my financial advantage, as I had hundreds of shares riding on there being a shutdown. Thanks for your participation!

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Apr 12 2011 at 10:29am PDT

A fair decision, imo. I had most of my money on passing a budget, btw.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 12 2011 at 01:15pm PDT

Agree a fair decision even though I agree that that the bill was not signed until the next day. I also lost on the shutdown for what it is worth.

Rationales

"There's not much time left to reach an agreement and not much progress has been made in the past 3 days"

!myceYu4 bought Government shutdown occurs at 62.44%
April 08, 2011 @ 11:18am PDT

"I'd call the chances 50-50, so this is way underpriced."

mvguy bought Government shutdown occurs at 6.94%
March 29, 2011 @ 02:38pm PDT

historical trend

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