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Baseball Dual Duel, Chicago vs. New York: Which city will win each of the following baseball categories in the MLB 2011 regular season? (See description)

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Hitting: Home Runs

(closed)

Predicted: 40.14%

Actual: 0.00%

Hitting: Slugging Percent

(closed)

Predicted: 31.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Hitting: Stolen Bases

(closed)

Predicted: 1.22%

Actual: 0.00%

Hitting: Team Batting Average

(closed)

Predicted: 31.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Pitching: ERA

(closed)

Predicted: 31.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Pitching: Home Runs Allowed

(closed)

Predicted: 57.45%

Actual: 0.00%

Pitching: Saves

(closed)

Predicted: 40.14%

Actual: 0.00%

Pitching: Strike Outs

(closed)

Predicted: 76.86%

Actual: 100.00%

Team: Runs Scored

(closed)

Predicted: 19.79%

Actual: 0.00%

Team: Shut Outs Against

(closed)

Predicted: 26.90%

Actual: 0.00%

Team: Shut Outs For

(closed)

Predicted: 40.14%

Actual: 100.00%

Team: Total Wins

(closed)

Predicted: 19.79%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

September 11, 2011 @ 11:59pm PDT

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

52

Most by: chelseaboys (25 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

chelseaboys   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 02:50pm PST

Jaysabi- It’s been 6 weeks since the regular season ended. I couldn’t stand it any longer so I did your work, except I can’t find Shut outs against.

Pay all stocks at 0 for a New York winner except Strike Outs and Shut Outs For which were Chicago winners at 100. And again, I can’t find SHA.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 07:59am PST

Tip of the cap to wstritt, Shut outs agains should also pay 0.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Nov 09 2011 at 11:50am PST

Get this closed, please!

chelseaboys   •   Wed Oct 19 2011 at 07:24am PDT

jaysabi- You alive? Way past time to close this out.

chelseaboys   •   Mon Oct 03 2011 at 08:09am PDT

Time to close this market out….

jaysabi   •   Wed Aug 17 2011 at 12:25pm PDT

As of August 16:
Chicago HR (batting): 235
New York HR (batting): 242

Chicago Shut Outs For: 12
New York Shut Outs For: 12

Chicago Shut Outs Against: 15
New York Shut Outs Against: 10

Hugh Betcha   •   Tue Apr 12 2011 at 11:21pm PDT

Let’s Go Mets! Let’s Go Yankees!

chelseaboys   •   Mon Apr 11 2011 at 03:21pm PDT

Also, I ALWAYS like markets that pull at the heartstrings of our King, wstritt. A new Yankee gloating market has just got to be killing him (as to his “promise” not to enter new markets). C’mon Bill, make a prediction…..

“Hey Chicago, what do you say, the CUBS/SOX are going to win today!”

jaysabi   •   Wed Apr 13 2011 at 08:08am PDT

I’m not familiar with his promise not to enter new markets. Why is that?

chelseaboys   •   Wed Apr 13 2011 at 08:17am PDT

He made that announcement a few months ago. As a way to ease out of the game. Otherwise, he’d be comfortably into the 30MM area.

There may be an explanation on his home page; or, perhaps he’ll restate his position here.

But, I like to jab at him about markets that I am sure he is drooling over to play (anything Yankee).

chelseaboys   •   Wed Apr 13 2011 at 08:20am PDT

As I looked at his home page just now, he is trading. Perhaps the restriction was to not trade in new markets….

Perhaps he’ll clarify. Bill?

wstritt   •   Wed Apr 13 2011 at 04:50pm PDT

CB – you are basically right. After I hit 25MM last November, I decided to slow down and limit myself to markets that I had played in. Sort of to ease out – 16 pages of markets, too easy to make Inkles solely because I had so many but, to some extent, not enough places to keep investing, etc.

After creating the When will Garth Brewer (or anyone else) surpass wstritt as #1 in Inkling’s public market? market and stating my “activity reduction”, it seemed rather rude for me to start trading actively again and screw up trades people made on the assumption I was slowing down (even though I have been tempted by some markets).

So, I have largely kept myself limited to those markets I had traded in prior to November 2010. Since many of them had long tails, still provided plenty of opportunity to trade though most aren’t terribly lucrative anymore. Still, the English Football markets can tie up a lot of Inkles.

Several minor but two material exceptions to that.

First, the wstritt #1 market coincided with the start of a bunch of “who will finish where in the rankings” markets (don’t recall which was first) leading ultimately to the potentially Inkling busting What Will Each Player’s Rank be at the End of April 2011? market where I bought some shares out of self defense before the cap was placed on payout.

Second, while I was always a very big fan of shorting (easier to figure out what won’t happen than what will), in the interest trying to glean what MFWA saw in his MASSIVE SHORT strategy, I shorted 4000 shares of every open stock in Rugby: Who will win the 2010/11 Heineken Cup? a week or so ago (took 3 rounds of trades to execute). Set my net worth back by ~1.8MM Inkles but, perhaps due to some rounding error in the process from trading unequal number of shares along the way, I am a lock to make 35 Inkles when they eventually all cash out irrespective of which one cashes out at 100. In the meantime each cash out reverses part of my paper loss. Based on what I did, I’m guessing that MFWA’s trading method may leverage the underlying bet he is making in any given market at the short term cost of negative net worth. Not sure about that though.

Also that shorting confirmed for me that the payout cap was necessary on Job’s market since any of us could lower our rankings to wherever we wanted if so inclined. Better yet would be a refund for anomalous ranking behavior in such markets in the future – still a boatload of Inkles to be had going from #1 to a 90 Inkle payout…

chelseaboys   •   Thu Apr 14 2011 at 06:40am PDT

Thanks for the reiteration/explanation.

Not being “in the game”, I still am mighty hesitant of those ‘massive short’ plays. I do enjoy shorting those stocks that I see/perceive as being wrong answers. But, to just short all stocks 4K…. I don’t comprehend how that makes money, oops, inkles.

Maybe I’ll take the plunge someday, I do have inkles on the sidelines now.

chelseaboys   •   Mon Apr 11 2011 at 03:19pm PDT

I was just wondering about your linguistic play on words in the title. Maybe you won’t want to admit it, but, did you intend Dual (as in double) to refer to the twin teams in each city, or did you mean duel (as in dueling cowboys in the old western movies) to refer to the battle between the two cities?

Just curious.

jaysabi   •   Wed Apr 13 2011 at 08:00am PDT

I’d like to admit I was being punny, but it was a spelling mistake on my part. I meant Duel as in a good ole fashion throw down.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Apr 14 2011 at 06:42am PDT

Dual Duel…Ha Ha….not bad.

chelseaboys   •   Mon Apr 11 2011 at 12:56pm PDT

Just a semantics question: Home Runs Allowed stock. What is the definition of Winning in the category? “More info” just says if Cubs/Sox wins, pay 100; but “winning” here should mean gives up the fewest HRs, right? It’s a bit of a double-negative and I just want to get it confirmed now. Same thing for “Shut Outs Against”?

jaysabi   •   Wed Apr 13 2011 at 07:56am PDT

Winning will always be interpreted to be the most favorable outcome, so for HR Allowed, the winner will be the combination of teams that allows fewer HR. I’ll add this to the info.

wstritt   •   Sun Apr 10 2011 at 06:45pm PDT

How about a 4 way market – NYC, Chicago, LA (Dodgers/Angels) and SF Area (Giants/Oakland).

jaysabi   •   Mon Apr 11 2011 at 09:50am PDT

I like that idea. I’ll probably set it up as a different market once I’ve had some time to figure out how to set it up.

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Hitting: Home Runs

Hitting: Slugging Percent

Hitting: Stolen Bases

Hitting: Team Batting Average

Pitching: ERA

Pitching: Home Runs Allowed

Pitching: Saves

Pitching: Strike Outs

Team: Runs Scored

Team: Shut Outs Against

Team: Shut Outs For

Team: Total Wins