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When will Newt Gingrich drop out of the 2012 GOP nomination contest?




01. June 2011


Predicted: 0.18%

Actual: 0.00%

02. July 2011


Predicted: 0.23%

Actual: 0.00%

03. August 2011


Predicted: 0.16%

Actual: 0.00%

04. September 2011


Predicted: 0.46%

Actual: 0.00%

05. October 2011


Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

06. November 2011


Predicted: 0.09%

Actual: 0.00%

07. December 2011


Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

08. January 2012


Predicted: 0.32%

Actual: 0.00%

09. February 2012


Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

10. March 2012


Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

11. April 2012


Predicted: 2.71%

Actual: 0.00%

12. May 2012


Predicted: 99.50%

Actual: 100.00%

13. June 2012


Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

14. July 2012


Predicted: 0.12%

Actual: 0.00%

15. Runs till August 2012, not nominated


Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

16. Wins GOP nomination


Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 29, 2012 @ 06:48pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: MFWinAlford (572 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

east1999   •   Wed Apr 25 2012 at 01:51pm PDT

So. No one believes he’ll quit on a Monday?

job   •   Sat Mar 31 2012 at 02:42pm PDT

March can be closed

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Mar 21 2012 at 07:26am PDT

They are going to have to carry this guy out in a coffin. The fact that he came in 4th, behind Ron Paul, in Illinois doesn’t seem to bother him. Nor the fact that Santorum got more than 4 times as many votes as he did.

“Presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich says Rick Santorum’s double-digit loss in the Illinois primary shows he is not the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney — and he can’t defeat President Barack Obama. The former House speaker also told Fox News’ Sean Hannity Tuesday night that he is staying in the race because he is that alternative — and he can win in November.”

Yeah, right!

SneakyPete   •   Wed Mar 21 2012 at 07:33am PDT

Youa verry corrrect on his not being able to win. Not sure that he will last to July. Neither will Santorum win the nomination. Too far to the right it seems to me. He, sometimes lets his mouth overload his behind as the old saying goes, in many of his comments.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 09:17am PST

I will go out on a limb by saying, if he still remains in the race until the 6 June primaries, he most likely stay until the end. Just not sure that Romney will have gained the 1,144 delegates needed by then. Utah with 40 delegates, being the last GOP primary on 26 June, just may take Romney over the top.

No one is going to drop out of this contest any time soon. We shall see.

ecotax   •   Sun Jan 29 2012 at 11:58am PST

He says he’ll go all the way to the convention:,0,2714574.story
Only a politician’s promise so far, but good enough for me to buy some august shares.

Politico   •   Sun Jan 29 2012 at 01:12pm PST

What else is he going to say? “Vote for me in Florida, and I’ll drop out in May!”

This is not “a politician’s promise” — it’s delusional thinking on his part. I’m sure the Party elite would like to find a better candidate than Romney, but Newt ain’t gonna cut it!

ecotax   •   Sun Jan 29 2012 at 01:58pm PST

He could have said nothing. And staying in the race is not the same as winning.

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 29 2012 at 06:50pm PST

I agree with Politico (but I’ve been wrong before). If it’s clear he can’t win, Newt will drop out well before the convention because, if for no other reason, he’ll be under a lot of pressure to help unify the Republican Party.

On the other hand, August shares are so cheap it might be worth the risk.

JeffWinger   •   Mon Jan 02 2012 at 04:05pm PST

I can’t see him dropping out anytime before Super Tuesday given how long he continued running while polling in the low single digits, with little campaign money and his campaign organizers quitting.

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 29 2012 at 06:53pm PST

Yeah, my money is on March right now. Even if Gingrich loses everything in February, there will be a sense by some that someone needs to represent the party’s right wing as long as a not-Romney has even a small chance,

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 01 2012 at 09:53am PST

December is come and gone and Newt is still in the running but fading fast.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 30 2011 at 08:14pm PST

um, probably not in November!

SneakyPete   •   Wed Nov 30 2011 at 09:11pm PST

You are correct….probably not in November. 1 hour to go.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Nov 29 2011 at 09:29pm PST

Let me see… First: There are 4 primaries or caucus’s in January. Second: Herman Cain is going down fast. Third: Newt Gingrich is running extremely well in all the four. Will he drop out in January? I don’t think so.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 01:42am PST

Newt may have more staying power than seemed possible just a few weeks ago. No surprise here:

“A week of turmoil in the race for the Republican presidential nomination has benefited former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich while hurting Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Herman Cain, new polling numbers from the Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey suggest.”

SneakyPete   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 06:44pm PST

I agree that the continued termoil can only help former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in their quest for the nomination. In the long run, the termoil will assist Romney more than, Gingrich.

ecotax   •   Sun Jul 03 2011 at 11:25pm PDT

June can be cashed out.

mvguy   •   Mon Jul 04 2011 at 11:17am PDT

Thanks for the reminder! I had kind of forgotten he’s still in the race.

ecotax   •   Sun Oct 02 2011 at 01:04pm PDT

You’re welcome. Meanwhile, september has come and gone, and he’s still hanging in there.

mvguy   •   Sun Oct 02 2011 at 01:13pm PDT

Got it.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Jun 27 2011 at 06:51am PDT

The Ames Iowa straw poll will be a sure indicator when he will drop out. Odds are he will come in last in the poll.

Politico   •   Wed Jun 22 2011 at 03:36pm PDT

I think it’s safe to say that Newt will not be our next President!

mvguy   •   Wed Jun 08 2011 at 07:15pm PDT

Here’s the article that prompted me to start this market:

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Jun 11 2011 at 04:11pm PDT

I agree with 1 thru 4; I disagree with 5 + 6!

SneakyPete   •   Thu Jun 23 2011 at 10:00am PDT

I also agree with 1 thru 4 but gererally agree with 6. I particularly agree with the comment that, not only will the Obama, Democrat and Republican campaigns unleash sustained negative campaign retoric across all levels of canidates from President on down. Negative ads will most likely be the worst we have seen in modern American political history. I do agree with 5, in that the Republicans will have win at least 52 seats and control both branches of Congress, House and Senate.


"Newt has too big an ego to drop out of the race."

loaldo bought 15. Runs till August 2012, not nominated at 14.32%
January 21, 2012 @ 06:16pm PST

"With 4 primaries/caucus voting taking place, it is doubtful that he would drop out in January."

SneakyPete sold 08. January 2012 at 33.81%
December 30, 2011 @ 03:40pm PST

"Newt will drop after Super Tuesday contests. "

Longstride bought 10. March 2012 at 8.62%
December 17, 2011 @ 08:21am PST

"By then voters will realize he is actually for big government, more spending, and has no morals"

tee#y3Ae bought 10. March 2012 at 8.17%
December 08, 2011 @ 05:27pm PST

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historical trend

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