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What will be the disposition of Muammar al-Qaddafi @ 23:59CDST on 15 September 2011?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

His location is still free in Libya.

(closed)

Predicted: 14.95%

Actual: 0.00%

His location or status is unknown.

(closed)

Predicted: 65.96%

Actual: 100.00%

His status is as a prisoner in Libya.

(closed)

Predicted: 6.71%

Actual: 0.00%

His status is deceased.

(closed)

Predicted: 5.91%

Actual: 0.00%

In another country free or prisoner.

(closed)

Predicted: 6.45%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

September 12, 2011 @ 04:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

64

Most by: SneakyPete (11 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Fri Sep 16 2011 at 06:33am PDT

The Location and status of Muammar al-Qaddafi @ 23:59CDST, on 15 September 2011, reamins as unkown. No one knows where he is, if he is alive or dead, and it has not been announced that he is a prisoner in Libya or any other country, as of the specified date.

Tom501   •   Tue Sep 06 2011 at 07:09pm PDT

How will you judge the status if it changes over the course of a day? For instance, what if he starts the day out with his status unknown but is then taken into custody some time before the day is over.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Sep 06 2011 at 08:55pm PDT

Good point. I will adjust the close out time until later in the day.

ecotax   •   Sat Sep 03 2011 at 12:30pm PDT

I think we can assume you’ll interpret ‘still free in Libya’ along the lines of ‘still in Libya, and neither dead nor in a prison yet’, so that if he is, for example, making a last stand on the 15th in a hopelessly surrounded Libyan town, you’ll cash out the ‘still free’ option at 100?

SneakyPete   •   Sat Sep 03 2011 at 02:46pm PDT

Yes I will assume and interpret ‘still free in Libya’ along the lines of ‘still in Libya’, and he is neither dead or in a prison yet. Second part of your question that if he is making a last stand on the 15th in a hopelessly surrounded Libyan town, I will cash out the ‘still free’ option at 100. I really doubt, that that will be the case, though.

ecotax   •   Wed Sep 07 2011 at 01:47pm PDT

I’m not too convinced this will happen either, but at this moment it doesn’t appear to be that unlikely:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/09/201197104730208737.html

wacksploitation (ADMIN)   •   Wed Aug 31 2011 at 06:32pm PDT

What a handsome devil!

Rationales

"He'll end up in Algeria in one form or another, but alive."

amsiegel bought In another country free or prisoner. at 25.75%
August 30, 2011 @ 10:44am PDT

"I am the Oracle"

sennichi bought His location or status is unknown. at 15.31%
August 25, 2011 @ 10:34am PDT

historical trend

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