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Who will win the 2008 United States Presidential Election?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Al Gore

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Barack Obama

(closed)

Predicted: 97.18%

Actual: 100.00%

Bill Richardson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Bob Barr

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Fred Thompson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Hillary Clinton

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

John Edwards

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

John McCain

(closed)

Predicted: 2.81%

Actual: 0.00%

Mike Bloomberg

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Mike Huckabee

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Mitt Romney

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Newt Gingrich

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Ralph Nader

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Ron Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Rudy Giuliani

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Sam Brownback

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Tommy Thompson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2008 @ 05:16pm PST

Predictions Made

2854 (Most: Garth Brewer)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

hawver   •   Mon Sep 08 2008 at 08:36pm PDT
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

PerfectHandle   •   Tue May 13 2008 at 07:30am PDT
Hey guys…Bob Barr just entered the race as a Libertarian.
wstritt   •   Thu May 15 2008 at 09:09pm PDT
Hillary has a better shot than Barr of winning (i.e. none) so its a bit shocking that he has a higher probability of winning than she does.
PerfectHandle   •   Thu May 22 2008 at 12:58pm PDT
Barr started high, since you can’t start anyone lower than the avg of the market. He’s been sinking since he announced.
PerfectHandle   •   Tue Apr 03 2007 at 09:14am PDT

Rationales

"Underdog, maybe.. but this seems very low"

sbalen bought John McCain at 3.54%
October 31, 2008 @ 01:05am PDT

"way oversold"

Frod bought John McCain at 10.75%
October 02, 2008 @ 09:50pm PDT

"I think Barack will win "

harshtalajia bought Barack Obama at 61.31%
September 09, 2008 @ 01:50pm PDT

"This seems a bit lopsided, considering the polls."

dfeuer bought John McCain at 32.06%
August 30, 2008 @ 01:12am PDT

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historical trend

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