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What states will the Democratic candidate win in the 2008 US Presidential Election?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Alabama

(closed)

Predicted: 5.63%

Actual: 0.00%

Alaska

(closed)

Predicted: 4.97%

Actual: 0.00%

Arizona

(closed)

Predicted: 8.57%

Actual: 0.00%

Arkansas

(closed)

Predicted: 4.68%

Actual: 0.00%

California

(closed)

Predicted: 96.50%

Actual: 100.00%

Colorado

(closed)

Predicted: 94.95%

Actual: 100.00%

Connecticut

(closed)

Predicted: 97.26%

Actual: 100.00%

Delaware

(closed)

Predicted: 96.42%

Actual: 100.00%

District of Columbia

(closed)

Predicted: 96.91%

Actual: 100.00%

Florida

(closed)

Predicted: 79.06%

Actual: 100.00%

Georgia

(closed)

Predicted: 12.31%

Actual: 0.00%

Hawaii

(closed)

Predicted: 97.56%

Actual: 100.00%

Idaho

(closed)

Predicted: 4.06%

Actual: 0.00%

Illinois

(closed)

Predicted: 97.29%

Actual: 100.00%

Indiana

(closed)

Predicted: 31.09%

Actual: 100.00%

Iowa

(closed)

Predicted: 95.26%

Actual: 100.00%

Kansas

(closed)

Predicted: 4.86%

Actual: 0.00%

Kentucky

(closed)

Predicted: 5.14%

Actual: 0.00%

Luisiana

(closed)

Predicted: 5.76%

Actual: 0.00%

Maine

(closed)

Predicted: 96.45%

Actual: 100.00%

Maryland

(closed)

Predicted: 97.48%

Actual: 100.00%

Massachusetts

(closed)

Predicted: 97.38%

Actual: 100.00%

Michigan

(closed)

Predicted: 96.31%

Actual: 100.00%

Minnesota

(closed)

Predicted: 97.33%

Actual: 100.00%

Mississippi

(closed)

Predicted: 4.95%

Actual: 0.00%

Missouri

(closed)

Predicted: 54.99%

Actual: 0.00%

Montana

(closed)

Predicted: 23.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Nebraska

(closed)

Predicted: 4.09%

Actual: 0.00%

Nevada

(closed)

Predicted: 93.47%

Actual: 100.00%

New Hampshire

(closed)

Predicted: 95.40%

Actual: 100.00%

New Jersey

(closed)

Predicted: 97.37%

Actual: 100.00%

New Mexico

(closed)

Predicted: 95.13%

Actual: 100.00%

New York

(closed)

Predicted: 97.29%

Actual: 100.00%

North Carolina

(closed)

Predicted: 66.38%

Actual: 100.00%

North Dakota

(closed)

Predicted: 20.95%

Actual: 0.00%

Ohio

(closed)

Predicted: 81.46%

Actual: 100.00%

Oklahoma

(closed)

Predicted: 4.33%

Actual: 0.00%

Oregon

(closed)

Predicted: 96.58%

Actual: 100.00%

Pennsylvania

(closed)

Predicted: 93.71%

Actual: 100.00%

Rhode Island

(closed)

Predicted: 95.84%

Actual: 100.00%

South Carolina

(closed)

Predicted: 4.91%

Actual: 0.00%

South Dakota

(closed)

Predicted: 5.14%

Actual: 0.00%

Tennessee

(closed)

Predicted: 4.54%

Actual: 0.00%

Texas

(closed)

Predicted: 3.80%

Actual: 0.00%

Utah

(closed)

Predicted: 4.32%

Actual: 0.00%

Vermont

(closed)

Predicted: 96.85%

Actual: 100.00%

Virginia

(closed)

Predicted: 94.01%

Actual: 100.00%

Washington (State)

(closed)

Predicted: 96.21%

Actual: 100.00%

West Virginia

(closed)

Predicted: 4.97%

Actual: 0.00%

Wisconsin

(closed)

Predicted: 97.19%

Actual: 100.00%

Wyoming

(closed)

Predicted: 4.55%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2008 @ 05:00am PST

Predictions Made

1842

Most by: AxmxZ (262 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

zakarria   •   Tue Nov 11 2008 at 08:58pm PST

whoops.

Missouri isn’t official yet.

mvguy   •   Thu Nov 06 2008 at 06:07pm PST

It looks like we correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 out of 51 jurisdictions, all except Indiana and probably Missouri. Not bad at all.

zakarria   •   Thu Nov 06 2008 at 04:49pm PST

I messed up on Maine and Delaware! They should both have been cashed out at $100!

Dreadfully sorry, my bad. I reported it to the admins, so hopefully it should be corrected shortly. I don’t know if this is still the case, but it used to be that you had to keep markets on your dashboard till they fixed it or they couldn’t correct your total, so keep them around.

zakarria   •   Thu Nov 06 2008 at 06:00pm PST

Woooops. I hadn’t cashed out markets in so long I didn’t realize I could undo the mistake myself! All fixed now.

zakarria   •   Tue Jun 17 2008 at 03:07am PDT

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/all.html should be a good resource for this market.

zakarria   •   Sat Apr 12 2008 at 09:30pm PDT

Good eye, hdubs. That would be me being a doosh and somehow missing it. South Dakota is now available for trading. Sorry, South Dakota.

Rationales

"I think the third-party vote hasn't been polled adequately in this state, and blacks will vote in high numbers for Obama."

mvguy bought Georgia at 17.31%
November 03, 2008 @ 06:02am PST

"I need the cash."

mvguy sold Washington (State) at 95.23%
October 28, 2008 @ 12:57pm PDT

"I don't really think the chances are less. I just want the cash."

mvguy sold Oregon at 93.59%
October 06, 2008 @ 07:33am PDT

"McCain has closed up shop in Michigan, not a good sign for him."

mvguy bought Michigan at 91.53%
October 02, 2008 @ 02:10pm PDT

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historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Luisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington (State)

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming