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When will Herman Cain's candidacy for the GOP nomination for the 2012 election for President of the United States of America end?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Ends November, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Ends December, 2011

(closed)

Predicted: 97.47%

Actual: 100.00%

Ends 1st quarter of 2012

(closed)

Predicted: 1.88%

Actual: 0.00%

Ends 2nd quarter of 2012

(closed)

Predicted: 0.16%

Actual: 0.00%

Ends 3rd quarter of 2012 pre-convention

(closed)

Predicted: 0.21%

Actual: 0.00%

Ends at the convention not as nominee

(closed)

Predicted: 0.18%

Actual: 0.00%

Ends at convention as nominee

(closed)

Predicted: 0.08%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 24, 2012 @ 12:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

446

Most by: Politico (74 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

EdG1975   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 08:59am PST

Does this also mean he can’t be voted at the causus? If so, there can also be some cashing out there.

Best Record   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 10:04am PST

Not necessarily. In the States, voting is controlled by the states, if you follow me. There is nothing in the federal constitution that gives anyone a right to vote. That is all determined at the state and local level as to who is entitled to vote, and when and how elections are held. Some states, for example, allow felons to vote, others do not. In some states, each Party sets its own rules for how caucuses and primaries are run, in other states all that is written into state law.

The are some provisions in federal law (and the constitution) that address the issue of voting, but essentially they prohibit discrimination, and enforce the principle of “one person one vote” — but it is still up to each state to set and enforce its laws, rules, and customs for registering voters and determining the actual voting procedures.

There is a little bit of information about all of this in wstritt’s link above, which, for convenience, I repeat here:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/03/9193461-what-does-suspending-a-campaign-mean

Tom501   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 08:36pm PST

My apologies for not responding to the emerging story earlier today, but I was on the road most of today and didn’t even get a chance to check the news until just a little while ago. In the notes attached to this question I stated that I would cash this question out when Mr. Cain was no longer seeking the nomination. The fact that he is no longer campaigning and will endorse another candidate mean he is no longer seeking the nomination. As such this question will be closed with December 2011 being the correct answer.

wstritt   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 07:07am PST

Not that it matters but after having chance to look at details and reaction, sounds like that was right call.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 08:55am PST

I also agree with the right call.

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 12:18am PST

Thanks, Tom. Obviously, I agree with your interpretation. Although, quite frankly, it wouldn’t have made too much difference at this point. I think I made a fair amount on this market, but didn’t keep careful track, so if you’d be willing to publish the “stats” I’d be interested in seeing that. I had covered all of my short positions in other options, and sold most of my December shares at a profit, so had only 200 shares left at the end. This was a fun sideshow to the ongoing circus.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 03:42pm PST

I don’t have a lot at stake here, so I don’t much care, except theoretically, but I would point out that CB has a definite opinion!

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/41630

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 07:25pm PST

That he does. Each of us has our own. This provides us with an interesting definition as to what constitute “Dropping Out” as a candidate. Suspending, in my mind does not. It is a “temporary” condition until he formally annouces that he is finished as a candidate. Just my opinion.

wstritt   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 07:09am PST

Pete – if you click through the MSNBC link above, turns out Hillary has never ended her 2008 campaign – it remains suspended (or whatever) 3 years after the fact.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 08:54am PST

Learn something new every day. I missed, util this AM, that Herman Cain said he announce soon, who would endorse going forward. Be curious who does. Seems that his followers may go for Gingrich or Backmann or perhaps Santorum. As I said earlier, this political season gets more interesting every day.

wstritt   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 03:34pm PST

job   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 03:07pm PST

You never know, so I cashed!

wstritt   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 11:34am PST

Different circumstances but I will note that McCain suspended his campaign in 2008 and restarted it later. I would imagine that if one dug hard enough other suspended/restarted campaigns could be found.

I am short December by the way.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 11:57am PST

I agree with your comments. If we look at the recent NBA negotiations, there were a number of suspentions taken and restarted, before a solution was reached. Cain, maybe wanting to build up his war chest, before re-entering the race.

wstritt   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 12:30pm PST

I’m guessing he doesn’t come back – tough to raise money if you aren’t campaigning. But it is theoretically possible, particularly if he can find way to refute/discredit his various accusers.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 11:19am PST

Question for all the experts out in Inkling Land. Am I wrong, but suspending his campaign does not mean ending it, at his time. He still remains in the race until sometime in the future, when he officially, ends his run. Am I right or wrong in my evaluation?

mvguy   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 02:08pm PST

Cain said in his speech that he would be endorsing someone for the nomination. He also called running for president Plan A and said he was embarking on Plan B, which is speaking out on the issues. He’s out of the race, period.

wstritt   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 02:31pm PST

I didn’t hear the speech so no clue what was actually said. However, if he in fact said that he was no longer seeking the GOP nomination, I would certainly agree that it met the original market criteria. If it was something more indirect or nebulous, this falls into the unfortunate category of “unanticipated possibility” where we are collectively at the mercy of the market creator’s judgement.

ecotax   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 02:07pm PST

I must admit being biased, being heavily short on december, but I agree with you that suspending and ending are two different things. There is a diminishing small chance he will decide to continue, but probably, he will formally announce his campaign to end at some later date, which I think is the date that should be used for this market.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 08:12am PST

This makes it sound like it’s not a done deal: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/03/in-atlanta-waiting-for-herman-cains-decision/

“Alfredo Ortiz, Mr. Cain’s press secretary … said the staff may not even be told before the public.”

On the other hand, one of my close political connections, who is not one to make frivolous claims, tells me the Cain train is off the tracks as of today.

At the same time, Paula Poundstone has revealed that “Newt Gingrich has been hit with allegations of being Newt Gingrich, and they appear to be sticking.”

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 08:48am PST

Continue? Suspend? Drop Out? It will interesting to see which way he decides, when he makes his announcement, today. BUT any way he goes today you are correct, his chances now and as always, are zero in winning the race.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 09:45am PST

Yes, I completely agree with you. It’s very quickly coming down to a 2-person race between Newt and Willard. Gingrich is the anti-Romney. And to think that everyone has written Newt off only a few weeks ago!

Meanwhile, the suspense is killing me. I am trying to do some yardwork on this beautiful sunny day, but I keep coming in to check the computer to see if he’s dropped out yet. This market says 97% chance he’s toast in December (and it’s only the 3rd of the month!), and I’d say that’s about right!

Here’s more fodder:

Dropping out before it gets any worse? Herman Cain likely to quit to protect family, source says ahead of announcement
Cain saw wife Gloria last night for first time since allegations of affair
Unnamed aide says candidate likely to drop out of the race today
Wife did not know about friendship with Ginger White, Cain says
Candidate has already cancelled Sunday night event
Poll numbers flagging

http://tinyurl.com/852hd6t

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 10:04am PST

I am doing the same, as I am betting on him still in the race, until after the January voting. Also channel switching to keep up with what he elects to do.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 10:59am PST

Well, that was quite a show! He used the word “suspend” although from the context it’s quite clear he meant “quit”! He added that he will be making an endorsement soon. To me, that’s equivalent of dropping out. I think it’s quite clear, but then, I’m a bit biased because of my long position in December (I’m obviously not the only one!).

Your call, Tom! Does this meet your criterion? “This question will cash out if at any time Mr. Cain publicly announces that he is no longer seeking the GOP nomination.” In my view, for all practical purposes, he just did that. He talked about “Plan B” — making change from the outside. That isn’t the talk of someone still running for President. I think his ego just got in the way of him saying “quit”!

mvguy   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 11:08am PST

There are also sound legal reasons for suspending a campaign rather than officially ending it, particularly in retiring campaign debts.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 03 2011 at 09:50am PST

Live coverage: http://tinyurl.com/6lwu9a4

Music playing now, at what was supposed to be the opening of his new HQ!

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Dec 02 2011 at 06:04pm PST

One opinion: http://news.investors.com/Article/593572/201112021854/herman-cain-newt-gingrich-mitt-romney-iowa.htm

“Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain announced on Friday that he will announce on Saturday the future of his political campaign. It doesn’t really matter what he announces. His … campaign … is dead”

Also, “A new poll from the Des Moines Register shows that his support has fallen to 8 percent in Iowa, down from 23 percent in late October.”

from http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57335797-503544/herman-cain-to-announce-next-steps-on-saturday/

SneakyPete   •   Wed Nov 30 2011 at 06:43pm PST

I may be wrong BUT, Herman Cain will remain in the race until at least, after the Iowa Caucus results.

ecotax   •   Thu Dec 01 2011 at 03:02pm PST

I agree. I expect him to await some initial results, before taking any final steps. I do expect him to give up not much later – like february or march.

job   •   Wed Nov 30 2011 at 08:33am PST

Mark Block, the campaign manager, told ABC News late Tuesday that there’s “no way he’s dropping out.” He said the candidate would lay out his new strategy in a visit to Ohio on Wednesday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/30/us/politics/herman-cain-may-quit-after-affair-and-harassment-accusations.html?ref=politics

London Bridge   •   Wed Nov 30 2011 at 10:16am PST

That’s what campaign managers are supposed to say! Herman will stay if his “reassessment” shows that he can raise money. If the money dries up, he’s gone, regardless of the validity of the claims against him. Reports are that his Iowa operation has run out of money. If he can’t compete in Iowa, he’s toast. Could he last till January? Sure, but highly unlikely given the support he’s already lost — a key NH state senator switched away from him to Newt — if he looks to be in trouble in NH, who’s going to give him money? Hey, it’s not a sure thing that his campaign will end in December, but it sure is hard to make the case that it won’t as of this point in time!

Politico   •   Tue Nov 29 2011 at 02:40pm PST

Thank you, Herman! My net value went from under $30K to over $60K because I was betting on a short candidacy. Of course, it’s not over yet! Yeah, right!

Best Record   •   Tue Nov 29 2011 at 10:01am PST

Best Record   •   Mon Nov 28 2011 at 04:35pm PST

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 29 2011 at 06:16am PST

If the allegation is proven, I’d have a hard time seeing Cain survive.

SneakyPete   •   Wed Nov 09 2011 at 07:52pm PST

I may be wrong but believe he will hang-in the race until at least after the January primaries and caucus’ take place, to see how the voter mood is revealed.

mvguy   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 07:18pm PST

I don’t expect anyone to drop out before Iowa. The way things are going, next week’s co-frontrunner could be Santorum.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Nov 14 2011 at 08:04pm PST

Doubt Santorum, but you are correct, the leader changes are comical. Newt is climbing, Herman is falling and Mitt just remains steady.

Tom501   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 07:33pm PST

At what point will the tea party supporters admit that the candidates they keep pushing to the top are flawed. Romney is going to be the nominee even if he has had a moderate thought from time to time.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Nov 15 2011 at 07:46pm PST

I agree with you. Mitt will most likely end up, as the GOP candidate to oppose, President Obama in 2012. While the Tea Party has a good bit of influence among the GOP voters, It is going to be the GOP voters as a whole, who will make the final decision, who will represente the party. There are a number of large number of other groups that will play a big part, in the final outcome as to which candidate, will get the final nod. Peoples minds have not been made up yet it seems. With 45 days util the Iowa caucus vote takes place leaving alot that can happen.

Rationales

"becoz its new"

himanshukimni bought Ends 1st quarter of 2012 at 34.83%
November 15, 2011 @ 10:00pm PST

"He will drop out after bombing in the Iowa, NH and NV primaries"

jschlegelmilch bought Ends 1st quarter of 2012 at 32.31%
November 15, 2011 @ 11:18am PST

"Has enough money to take it in to the new year, but then will drop out when someone else is the clear cut nominee"

amsiegel bought Ends 1st quarter of 2012 at 18.36%
November 10, 2011 @ 06:21am PST

historical trend

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