Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

When will one of the states in the U.S. prohibit the commercialization of any type of cigar?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

2011

(closed)

Predicted: 0.73%

Actual: 0.00%

2012

(closed)

Predicted: 25.47%

Actual: 0.00%

2013

(closed)

Predicted: 20.85%

Actual: 0.00%

2014

(closed)

Predicted: 13.98%

Actual: 0.00%

2015

(closed)

Predicted: 9.37%

Actual: 0.00%

2016 or after

(closed)

Predicted: 11.44%

Actual: 0.00%

Never

(closed)

Predicted: 18.13%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2011 @ 07:26am PST

topic

Health

Predictions Made

42

Most by: MFWinAlford (22 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

EdG1975   •   Fri Jan 06 2012 at 01:37am PST

looks like an missinginaction creator.

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Jan 06 2012 at 12:57am PST

2011 can be closed out. Also, this is a pretty boring market if it can no longer be traded — where’s the predictive ability of that? We can’t even close out our positions if we no longer want to play, but have to wait for annual payments or for the event to happen.

ecotax   •   Sat Dec 31 2011 at 01:32am PST

Is there any reason why some state would do this to the cigar but not to the cigarette?

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Nov 12 2011 at 01:58pm PST

Also, please define the word “commercialization” — does this have a different meaning from the word “sale”?

KCruel   •   Sat Nov 12 2011 at 04:18pm PST

No, it means sale!

SneakyPete   •   Sat Nov 12 2011 at 08:32am PST

Is a December 31,2011 suspense date realistic with a 2016 or after, option?

KCruel   •   Sat Nov 12 2011 at 04:20pm PST

You right! If we could do again maybe the best would be say until 2012 Dec, 31, then other otpions.

Tom501   •   Sat Nov 12 2011 at 05:52pm PST

As the creator of the market you can change the end time of it. Just click on the Admin tab on the question page and you can then go through the question in order to change some of the settings. You just have to remember to save any of the changes that you make.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader