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Will the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act be repealed by the US Supreme Court? (the entire law)

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 11.88%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

February 01, 2013 @ 10:50am PST

Predictions Made

85

Most by: kittymomom (18 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Thu Jun 28 2012 at 03:52pm PDT

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obama Care)is alive and well. Market can be cashed out.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Dec 05 2011 at 01:06am PST

kcatch9   •   Tue Nov 22 2011 at 11:03am PST

Yes, the end date was a definite mistake, not sure what I did there. It should be back open again.

I believe I’ve also clarified the absolute/partiality question.

London Bridge   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 06:50pm PST

Since this market ends tomorrow, it will almost certainly pay out at zero. I doubt Congress will repeal any or all of this tomorrow. A quick profit on a short!

London Bridge   •   Fri Nov 18 2011 at 10:29pm PST

Okay, it didn’t happen. This market can now be paid out at zero!

Tom501   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 04:57pm PST

I need a little clarification here. What do you consider repealed? As a whole it will not be repealed because there is no way legislation to do so will get through the Senate even if the Republicans could match their gains from last cycle. And once members of the public began to receive direct benefits under the plan there will be no way to generate support for repeal. It will probably have modifications made to it but it won’t be repealed as a whole. Do modifications count as repeal in your judging of this question?

chelseaboys   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 05:16pm PST

Repeal is an all or nothing proposition. That is the question. Not partial repeal. That is a different question.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 05:18pm PST

What I don’t get is why the market ends tomorrow, mistake?

wstritt   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 06:07pm PST

Must be by mistake. No way Congress can act by tomorrow so should trade to zero if judged at normal “end of market” timing. Otherwise this market can’t cash out at anything other than 100 – with no deadline, on its face, it can cash out only if and when the law is repealed. If it isn’t repealed, who is to say it won’t happen the next day so has to stay open in perpetuity.

I suppose there is an alternative that the Supreme Court overturns it in its entirety in which case there is no need to repeal it but, then again, Congress could just repeal it for fun so probably need to leave it open for that possibility….

kcatch9 – I think some clarification on time frame would be in order here.

SneakyPete   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 06:39pm PST

I agree on the clarification. I dropped out, as I was not sure as to what the originator, was looking for.

SneakyPete   •   Wed Nov 16 2011 at 03:13pm PST

The answer to this market, will be a long time, coming.

Rationales

"It would be nearly unprecedented for such a large act to be completely repealed by the US Supreme Court."

na4a!hMa sold at 9.94%
June 19, 2012 @ 04:55pm PDT

"The court is divided closely and judicial precedent is that passed laws remain in effect."

e#ree6Am sold at 21.76%
April 01, 2012 @ 04:19pm PDT

"The law"

de6Ac!he bought at 21.76%
March 31, 2012 @ 06:46pm PDT

historical trend

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