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The Supreme Court will rule that ______ of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional.






Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 9.01%

Actual: 0.00%



Predicted: 90.98%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

February 01, 2013 @ 11:05am PST

Predictions Made


Most by: bobdevine (22 predictions)


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chelseaboys   •   Thu Aug 16 2012 at 06:58pm PDT

Why is this not paid out?

SneakyPete   •   Wed Sep 12 2012 at 10:27am PDT

I have emailed Admin to cash out a while back. No action yet. Perhaps someone else can get it done. kcatch9 has not been on the site lately it seems.

SneakyPete   •   Wed Jul 04 2012 at 04:00pm PDT

As the Supreme Court ruled that the “Medicaide” portion of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act was unconstitutional, which surprised me and that the “Individual Manadte” portion was consitutional, which also surprised me, am I safe to assune that “Part” is the correct prediction?

bobdevine   •   Wed Jul 04 2012 at 06:17pm PDT

I think ‘part’ is the correct answer because SCOTUS did turn down the requirement on states for extended Medicare.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Jul 06 2012 at 06:18am PDT

You are correct. I meant to say “Part”. My mistake.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Mar 27 2012 at 02:36pm PDT

I am shorting None but I’m not happy about it. Each and every Supreme Court Justice owes me a 500 word essay on externalities.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 27 2012 at 02:59pm PDT

So, if you are shorting “none”, aren’t you forgetting our earlier comment soliloquy that “part” really = “all” due to the lack of a severability clause. By that I mean you could either buy “part” or “all” as the end result of both is “all” which is the same as shorting “none”.

Wow, I’ve confused myself.

I guess I mean why risk the short when you can by either of the others to get to the same result?

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Mar 27 2012 at 03:34pm PDT

Apparently, the Supreme Court, including the current Court, affirms a strong presumption in favor of severability. See FREE ENTERPRISE FUND v. PUBLIC COMPANY ACCOUNTING OVERSIGHT BOARD.

ChloeBurns   •   Sat Nov 26 2011 at 06:55am PST

Legislation frequently includes a severability clause that allows some provisions of the law to remain enforceable if others are ruled unconstitutional. Inexplicably, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act lacks a severability clause.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 11 2011 at 07:29am PST

Thanks…. As usual, I learn something new everyday, with great comments by the participents in the interesting markets on the site.

chelseaboys   •   Sat Nov 26 2011 at 10:18am PST

That was the basis for my post; but, you articulated it much more precisely, Chloe.

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 26 2011 at 10:12am PST

Very interesting.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Nov 22 2011 at 12:53pm PST

I think I understand what you are trying to do; however, finding an Act partially unconstitutional makes the entire Act unconstitutional, doesn’t it? It’s like being a little bit pregnant.

I could be wrong, I haven’t had a con law class since the ’80s.

mvguy   •   Wed Nov 23 2011 at 11:44am PST

It would be possible, for example, to find a portion dealing with abortion to be unconstitutional while upholding the rest of the law. Courts do that sort of thing all the time.

It would also be possible that the court finds the individual mandate unconstitutional — and then say that mandate is the key to the functioning of the whole law and thus toss out the whole law. I see that as less likely, but certainly possible.

historical trend

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