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Will President Obama's DISAPPROVAL rating as reported by RCP @7:00 AM on Friday 30 December 2011 be higher, lower, or remain the same as the 51.2% as reported on 30 November 2011?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

51.3% or Higher.

(closed)

Predicted: 7.90%

Actual: 0.00%

Remains at 51.2%.

(closed)

Predicted: 1.47%

Actual: 0.00%

51.1% or Lower.

(closed)

Predicted: 90.62%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 28, 2011 @ 07:00pm PST

Predictions Made

94

Most by: job (45 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Fri Dec 30 2011 at 05:15am PST

President Obama’s DISAPPROVAL rating as reported by RCP @7:00 AM on Friday 30 December 2011 was lower (48.8%) than the 51.2% as reported on 30 November 2011.

job   •   Thu Dec 22 2011 at 12:14pm PST

Disapproval: 48.4%! When will it rise again?

SneakyPete   •   Thu Dec 29 2011 at 12:36pm PST

Today, 29 Dec 11, @ 14:30
Approve 46.2
Disapprove 48.8

mdrichards   •   Fri Dec 16 2011 at 12:42pm PST

The pricing of this market makes no sense. Huge opportunity for someone, in my view.

“Obama’s overall job approval stands at a new low: 44 percent approve while 54 percent disapprove. The president’s standing among independents is worse: 38 percent approve while 59 percent disapprove.”

AP-GfK Poll: More than half say Obama should lose

SneakyPete   •   Fri Dec 16 2011 at 01:46pm PST

I set the criteria based on his RCP’s “Disapproval Rating” as of 30 November. I have used the RCP rating based on its being an average of a variety of polling agencies which, in the past, have given a good overall evaluation of his both his approval/disaproval numbers. Using a single agency often provides a biased evaluation depending on which side of the isle they are standing. Just my opinion.

mdrichards   •   Fri Dec 16 2011 at 03:03pm PST

No I understand the market. I don’t get why it’s currently priced the way it is. 82% chance of his disapproval rating going down? That seems absurd. What am I missing here?

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 18 2011 at 09:09am PST

JUst my opinion but what with is going on in Congress and what his retoric has been the last few days, people may be giving him an early Christmas gift. They like him as an individual but not his agenda.

job   •   Fri Dec 16 2011 at 03:16pm PST

If You think that the rate is going up, just buy the 51.3 or higher shares. You can win a lot!

mdrichards   •   Fri Dec 16 2011 at 03:24pm PST

Oh I’m short 51.1% or Lower, so I’m covered. If I had some free capital I’d definitely be adding to it.

I just wish I was in at this price. :)

job   •   Fri Dec 16 2011 at 01:57pm PST

Disapproval: 49%!

mdrichards   •   Tue Dec 06 2011 at 04:31pm PST

I find it difficult to understand the way this market is priced right now.

historical trend

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51.1% or Lower.