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Which of the following candidates, will be next to withdraw from the race, for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Michelle Bachmann

(closed)

Predicted: 99.28%

Actual: 100.00%

Jon Huntsman

(closed)

Predicted: 0.09%

Actual: 0.00%

Ron Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Rick Perry

(closed)

Predicted: 0.50%

Actual: 0.00%

Rick Santorum

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

None of the above.

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

July 31, 2012 @ 10:00am PDT

Predictions Made

144

Most by: MFWinAlford (21 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

EdG1975   •   Wed Jan 04 2012 at 08:40am PST

Bachman is out and beats Perry in that case.

Politico   •   Wed Jan 04 2012 at 09:40am PST

Yup! I hope SP will use the “uh-oh” option here to void and post-announcement trades!

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 18 2011 at 04:56pm PST

I find the “other” option a bit off-putting. What if Thaddeus Fragmeyer declares that he is no longer running? Does that count? I think you should limit it to the names on your list, or add others if you feel they are serious candidates. See, for example, mvguy’s specificity here: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/41815

As to the end date, why not just make it the Convention? No need to extend it then, and people might be disinclined to participate if they think it will close before there is any “action” — so to speak.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 18 2011 at 05:31pm PST

Points well taken. Have adjusted market accordingly. Thanks

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 18 2011 at 06:06pm PST

Great — only other suggestion is that you might want the “out” option to read “None of the above”! o/w what happens if Thaddeus Fragmeyer drops out? I only ask because he is a friend of mine. NOT! ;)

EdG1975   •   Sun Dec 04 2011 at 02:48pm PST

end date doesn’t seem to be correct for some nice trading.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Dec 06 2011 at 05:05pm PST

I set the 1 March end date because I feel, that after 11 primaries/caucus’ have been taken place in January and February, I am sure that we will see several dropping out of the race. If by chance, we do do see anyone dropping out by 1 March, I will extend the market. I have changed the “Other Candidate” to “Other/ None” based on ecotax’s comment. Thanks, for your input, EdG1975 and ecotax.

ecotax   •   Tue Dec 06 2011 at 01:52pm PST

Either that, or the ‘none’ option is missing.

Rationales

"Perry is going home to reassess his campaign. You know what that means."

amsiegel bought Rick Perry at 18.69%
January 03, 2012 @ 09:30pm PST

"Rick Perry will probably stay until the Texas vote takes place 6 March 2011.."

SneakyPete sold Rick Perry at 26.60%
December 05, 2011 @ 11:48am PST

historical trend

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