Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Which will be the top 20 films of 2012 at the domestic box office?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

z- 21 Jump Street

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- American Reunion

(closed)

Predicted: 0.74%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Battleship

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Brave

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Contraband

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Dark Shadows

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Django Unchained

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- G.I. Joe 2: Retaliation

(closed)

Predicted: 66.47%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Gangster Squad

(closed)

Predicted: 3.73%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

(closed)

Predicted: 0.83%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Hotel Transylvania ($148.2M)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Ice Age: Continental Drift

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- John Carter

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Joyful Noise

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Les Misérables

(closed)

Predicted: 99.44%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Life of Pi

(closed)

Predicted: 0.13%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Lincoln

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Lincoln: Vampire Hunter

(closed)

Predicted: 2.18%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Madagascar

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Magic Mike

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Men in Black 3

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Mirror Mirror

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Promethius

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Rise of the Guardians

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Safe House

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Skyfall

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Snow White and the Huntsman

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Taken 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.80%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Ted

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- The Amazing Spider-Man

(closed)

Predicted: 99.93%

Actual: 100.00%

z- The Avengers

(closed)

Predicted: 99.78%

Actual: 100.00%

z- The Bourne Legacy

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- The Campaign

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- The Dark Knight Rises

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- The Devil Inside

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

z- The Expendables 2

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- The Great Gatsby

(closed)

Predicted: 0.65%

Actual: 0.00%

z- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- The Hunger Games

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- The Lorax

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- The Vow

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- This Is 40

(closed)

Predicted: 1.07%

Actual: 0.00%

z- This Means War

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Total Recall

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

z- Underworld Awakening

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

z- What To Expect When You're Expecting

(closed)

Predicted: 0.90%

Actual: 0.00%

z- World War Z

(closed)

Predicted: 20.30%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Wrath of the Titans

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

z- Wreck-It Ralph

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 31, 2013 @ 08:00am PDT

Predictions Made

1533

Most by: odysseus (229 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

job   •   Sat Mar 23 2013 at 01:58pm PDT

Mvguy,thanks for running this question!

mvguy   •   Sun Mar 24 2013 at 02:22pm PDT

You’re welcome. I’ve enjoyed doing it.

mvguy   •   Sun Mar 17 2013 at 01:57pm PDT

It’s looking like Argo and Playbook will end up 22nd and 23rd or thereabouts by the end of the month. Unless someone gives me a good argument to do otherwise, I’ll cash out the market sometime this week.

odysseus   •   Sun Feb 24 2013 at 11:51pm PST

Ooo, how exciting. We have a race to the finish fueled by Oscar glory. These 3 movies should all finish neck and neck

mvguy   •   Mon Feb 25 2013 at 07:59am PST

Argo is already out on home video, so I don’t know how much they’ll be pushing theater showings. But $10 million more certainly doesn’t seem out of reach.

As to SLB, it had $6 million last weekend, although I assume it will fade now that the awards season is over. I’d expect it to place in the top 25 for sure.

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 27 2013 at 03:47pm PST

My tentative plans for this market: I’ll cash out Django Unchained at $100 once it passes Hotel Transylvania. if Les Miz should pass Transylvania I’ll cash it out too. After the Academy Awards, I’ll cash out everything in 21st place or lower at $0 unless one of them is named best picture, in which case I’ll wait to see if there’s a significant Oscars boost before terminating this market. As a practical matter, I think only Argo has a fighting chance of catching up with Taken 2 with a best-picture win, but we’ll see.

mvguy   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 10:22am PST

For those so inclined, there may be some good arbitrage opportunities here. Assuming that Lincoln and Taken 2 have a lock on the top 20, there are three films (21 Jump Street, Les Misérables and Django Unchained) likely vying for the final two openings, and they have a total value of a bit over $240 as of right now. There’s obviously some overpricing going on, but I haven’t done arbitrage enough to know the approach to take. Of course, if something like Zero Dark Thirty should become a hit once it goes into wide release, or if Argo should win Best Picture, developments could foil any attempts at a guaranteed return.

job   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 08:53am PST

Mvguy, how do you know that Lincoln is 131 million by 12/30???

mvguy   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 09:46am PST

That’s just an estimate (and thus the tilde) based on studio reports at Deadline.com . That seemed a bit high to me at first, but not by much. It had $127M as of Friday night and has been getting around $2M/day over the holiday period.

job   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 09:54am PST

Thanks for this usefull information.

mvguy   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 10:03am PST

That should’ve been $130M, by the way. I’ve knocked the number down a million.

bobdevine   •   Fri Dec 28 2012 at 09:19pm PST

Is there a fix for the Inkling bug where you can’t bid on entries that were added after the question went live? For example, trying to buy “Lincoln” or “Hotel Transylvania” causes a browser lockup when a popup box never displays.

mvguy   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 12:01pm PST

My understanding (and it might be wrong) is that it’s not a bug but a feature that was incorporated because of abuse by some trader(s). I’ve come up with a workaround for the 2013 market, so we shouldn’t have that problem next year. I really would like to include Lincoln and a few other films in this market, but it just doesn’t appear possible.

For what it’s worth, it also apparently is no longer possible to edit market details, which include the closing date and the URL of the news feed.

job   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 03:01pm PST

17 Taken 2 $138,594,063
18 21 Jump Street $138,447,667

job   •   Fri Dec 21 2012 at 04:18am PST

16 21 Jump Street $138,447,667
17 Taken 2 $138,230,967
Itis very likely that Taken 2 will pass Jump Street.

mvguy   •   Fri Dec 21 2012 at 06:52am PST

If Django Unchained and Les Mis both do well, that could make a difference, assuming Lincoln makes the top 20 with its Oscar boost.

job   •   Fri Dec 21 2012 at 06:59am PST

If…..that will happen, taken 2 will in the top 20 and ’21 Jumpstreet 21" out of the top 20!!

wstritt   •   Sun Nov 25 2012 at 07:48am PST

job – one caveat: there are other December openings that are not listed that have some chance of breaking into the top 20. Jack Reacher, for example.

job   •   Sun Nov 25 2012 at 03:30am PST

Bar for Success
Rise of the Guardians needs to earn at least $40 million for the five-day weekend—that would put it in line with last year’s The Muppets.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3572&p=.htm
The Muppets earned around 88 million, so entering the top 20 will be very difficult!
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=themuppets.htm

mvguy   •   Sun Nov 25 2012 at 02:16pm PST

I’m not sure how easy it is to compare from one year to the next. Guardians was better reviewed than Muppets and so may have longer legs. Also, last year the latest in the Alvin series was released in mid-December, and Guardians isn’t going to have that kind of competition during the week and a half that kids are out of school late in the year, and Guardians also has Santa in it, giving it a slight bit of holiday appeal. At this point, I wouldn’t put a lot of money on Guardians, but I’m not seeing its future as all that dismal either despite its awful start.

odysseus   •   Mon Nov 26 2012 at 12:22am PST

Word of mouth on Muppets was very positive, while I’m only seeing negative on Guardians. The former isn’t animated though, which does make a difference. Guardians’ biggest competitor looks like Ralph, really. That might have been enough to saturate the market a bit, and to make the top 20 you’re looking for 4-5x opening weekend which just doesn’t happen too often for Dreamworks Animation.

job   •   Sun Nov 25 2012 at 03:09am PST

If besides the Hobbit we get one more film entering the top 20, then Promethius wel remain in the top 20. So I think that Safe house has a little chance, Promethius a reasonable chance and Taken 2 a big chance to end in the top 20.

job   •   Sat Nov 24 2012 at 02:05pm PST

Would the following outcome be possible??
17. The Hobbit
18. Taken 2
19. Promethius
20. Safe House

odysseus   •   Sat Nov 24 2012 at 04:45pm PST

Theoretically yes, but The Hobbit is going to do significantly better than that, beyond any reasonable doubt. There’s a very slim chance Taken 2 will finish past 21 Jump Street and a very large chance that more movies will do better than Safe House. Movies hold fantastically well over winter, especially the last 2-3 weeks of the year. You also have the factor of Oscar buzz which will buoy prestige pictures like Lincoln and Les Misérables. The latter has just begun screening and the reception has been positively glowing.

job   •   Sun Nov 25 2012 at 03:16am PST

I agree that Taken 2 will pass 21 Jumpstreet, so Taken 2 should get a Higher value than 21 Jumpstreet!

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 24 2012 at 09:00pm PST

Yeah, The Hobbit will make the top 10. And I agree that the Christmas holiday season is vital. If Rise of the Guardians makes the top 20 (and I wouldn’t count it out yet), it will because it’ll be one of the current films for families to see during the period. It won’t have a lot of direct competition then other than the re-release of Monsters, Inc.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Nov 22 2012 at 04:54am PST

How can you approximate numbers through 11/25 when it’s only 11/22?

mvguy   •   Thu Nov 22 2012 at 03:15pm PST

I used the preliminary numbers given at Deadline Hollywood. Use at your own risk.

mvguy   •   Wed Nov 21 2012 at 10:51pm PST

Because of their potential for an Oscar boost, I’ve added Argo and Lincoln to the list for reference purposes.

chelseaboys   •   Sat Nov 17 2012 at 08:45am PST

A thought for next year: Would you mind leaving the money earned numbers on the closed films? It provides perspective for the casual movie fan….

Thanks,

As usual, this market is a big favorite of mine, and I think of many.

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 17 2012 at 02:19pm PST

Unfortunately, I can’t edit markets that have cashed out, and the totals frequently change after then. Otherwise I think it would be a good idea.

job   •   Thu Nov 15 2012 at 07:13am PST

With Hotel T and without Promethius we have 14 films for the top 20. Besides those 14 films only 5 films are priced above 50%. What will be the missing film?????

chelseaboys   •   Thu Nov 15 2012 at 07:22am PST

Your right. My bad. I swear when I counted them 10 minutes ago, Prometheus was in danger. Guess it only is if there is a surprise. Maybe Django Unchained? Nothing like a bit of violence for Christmas Day!

chelseaboys   •   Thu Nov 15 2012 at 07:01am PST

Are you giving up on getting Hotel T active? I had a similar problem in my college football weekly game. They changed the rule because someone was abusing it by adding later stocks and then trading the stock.

Anyway, at 141M, it’s got a decent shot at being #20 and kicking out Promethius. The other one I’m not sold on is Rise of the Guardians. Alot of top films hitting the screens now. We’ll see, I guess.

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 17 2012 at 07:57am PST

Yeah, I’ve more or less given up.

I think “Guardians” will make it. I also wouldn’t rule out some other film if it gets picked for Best Picture, such as “Les Misérables” or even “Argo.” And, who knows? Maybe even “Lincoln.” If a film isn’t too artsy, a Best Picture could keep a film in theaters for a couple months longer than it would have stayed otherwise, as happened with “The King’s Speech.”

chelseaboys   •   Sat Nov 17 2012 at 08:40am PST

Good idea but you may want to redact it from your comment so Big Brother doesn’t block the move…. Then I’ll delete this comment!

wstritt   •   Thu Nov 15 2012 at 06:42pm PST

Even if it was made active, at current #12, probably would need to have starting price of 99+ given where current #11 and #13 are trading so hardly any point unless you think there is a chance it falls to #21, I suppose.

mvguy   •   Sun Oct 07 2012 at 04:20pm PDT

I’ve added “Hotel Transylvania” to the list. Until I can make it so it’s part of the market, it’s there for informational purposes only.

mvguy   •   Sat Sep 29 2012 at 01:30pm PDT

Because it appears that it could have a record September opening, I may be adding “Hotel Transylvania” to the list. However, due to a change in the Inkling software, I’m currently unable to do so.

odysseus   •   Sat Sep 29 2012 at 07:54pm PDT

The plot thickens. I don’t necessarily see it making the top 20, but it’ll certainly help bump something out. I also foresee Lincoln being a serious contender.

mvguy   •   Sat Sep 29 2012 at 08:31pm PDT

I don’t see “Lincoln” as having a huge opening, but it’s one of those movies that could hang around a long time and get a decent total. I’m also intrigued by “Cloud Atlas,” but it’s hard to say how much box office appeal it will have. I do hope I can get some of these films added to the market, just in case one of them breaks out.

mvguy   •   Wed Aug 22 2012 at 10:24am PDT

I wish I had a snapshot of what last year’s market looked like at this time. As of now, there are three films in the top 20 (based on “predicted chance”) with percentages under 20. That seems to me like a high number. There’s almost a guarantee that there will be another underdog film (in addition to “Ted”) that ends up on the top 20, and probably more than one.

ChloeBurns   •   Fri Sep 28 2012 at 12:31pm PDT

It just so happens that I have a record of my positions on July 20th of last year. The total for all options sums to 1846.02 and the 20th film, Rio, is trading at 50.30. So this year is not as unusual as it initially appears. I would argue that that box office this year will skew toward the top films and, as a result, films with totals in the $120s will end up in the top 20. FWIW, I am currently long Prometheus, Safe House and The Vow.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Oct 02 2012 at 08:54am PDT

Oops. I missed a cashed out title. The actual sum for all options at this time last year was 1946.02, i.e., this year’s market is pricing in a significantly higher chance that more than one post-Labor Day film will surprise to the upside.

odysseus   •   Wed Aug 08 2012 at 10:09pm PDT

Gangster Squad has been pushed back to next year.

wstritt   •   Thu Aug 09 2012 at 06:28am PDT

Great Gatsby as well

mvguy   •   Thu Aug 09 2012 at 09:02am PDT

Thanks, Odysseus and Wstritt. I’ve cashed out both films at $0.

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Jul 16 2012 at 11:40am PDT

Was “The Campaign” titled something else before? I don’t remember shorting anything with that name.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Jul 17 2012 at 05:28am PDT

I remember shorting The Rivals. But that film stars Nicole Kidman not Will Ferrell. Thanks, Bob.

mvguy   •   Thu Aug 09 2012 at 09:07am PDT

“The Rivals” with Nicole Kidman is apparently a 2013 movie, although it’s not clear to me whether it’s actually in production. “The Campaign” was previously listed here as “Rivals.” The opening date has remained unchanged, so the upcoming film is indeed the one that was meant.

Rationales

"54"

mvguy sold z- Safe House at 6.69%
April 22, 2012 @ 12:35pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader

More information about the possible answers

z- Hotel Transylvania ($148.2M)

z- Lincoln