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Which candidate will win the most Republican primaries/caucuses in January 2012?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Mitt Romney

(closed)

Predicted: 94.94%

Actual: 100.00%

Newt Gingrich

(closed)

Predicted: 4.54%

Actual: 0.00%

Ron Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.15%

Actual: 0.00%

Rick Santorum

(closed)

Predicted: 0.28%

Actual: 0.00%

Rick Perry

(closed)

Predicted: 0.54%

Actual: 0.00%

Michele Bachmann

(closed)

Predicted: 0.44%

Actual: 0.00%

Other

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 31, 2012 @ 12:00pm PST

Predictions Made

112

Most by: ChloeBurns (44 predictions)

Discussion

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EdG1975   •   Thu Feb 02 2012 at 03:06pm PST

This one can be cashed out for Mitt Romney

SneakyPete   •   Sat Jan 21 2012 at 01:09pm PST

Who will reach two or three? Tie for One as it stands now.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Jan 12 2012 at 11:06am PST

Does anyone have a concise list of the primaries and their dates?

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 15 2012 at 04:44pm PST

Chelseaboys — Frontloading HQ at http://frontloading.blogspot.com/ keeps its list up to date and has all you’ll care to know about delegate allocations.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 01 2012 at 06:31pm PST

Will a tie be counted as an “Other”?

JeffWinger   •   Sun Jan 01 2012 at 08:02pm PST

I didn’t mean it to, though how do I change the status of the question to allow the possibility of multiple outcomes? The option to change that is locked for me right now.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Jan 03 2012 at 09:22am PST

I don’t think it is possible to change the number of outcomes after the market is published. The usual practice is to establish tiebreakers. For example, an underdog rule would decide this market in favor of whoever won the last primary or caucus.

Rationales

"He is the only one that is smart and talks about what the USA needs."

uYa!ew6c bought Ron Paul at 1.16%
January 08, 2012 @ 11:08am PST

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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