Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Which of the following candidates will be next to withdraw from the race for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Jon Huntsman

(closed)

Predicted: 99.54%

Actual: 100.00%

Newt Gingrich

(closed)

Predicted: 0.37%

Actual: 0.00%

Rick Perry

(closed)

Predicted: 39.41%

Actual: 0.00%

Rick Santorum

(closed)

Predicted: 0.68%

Actual: 0.00%

Ron Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

July 31, 2012 @ 10:00am PDT

Predictions Made

192

Most by: SneakyPete (29 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

wstritt   •   Mon Jan 16 2012 at 09:03am PST

Pete – Out of curiosity, why did you back-date the cash out of this market? As you noted in response to one of my earlier questions: “The “first official announcement” would have to be the answer in my opinion. Presss releases have been known to be wrong.”

The “first official announcement” wasn’t until 11AM this morning.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Jan 16 2012 at 10:21am PST

While his intention to drop out of the race, was released last night, I will reverse my opinion as to the “Official” time to 11:00 today.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 15 2012 at 08:32pm PST

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman plans to withdraw from race for Republican presidential nomination.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will withdraw his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, Fox News confirmed Sunday.

Huntsman is set to announce his withdrawal from the race Monday at 11:00 a.m. at the Myrtle Beach Convention Center in South Carolina, at which time he will endorse GOP candidate Mitt Romney.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/15/huntsman-to-withdraw-from-race-for-republican-presidential-nomination/#ixzz1jan7p7PX

SneakyPete   •   Thu Jan 12 2012 at 06:27am PST

Jon Hunstman’s campaign will challenge the Arizona secretary of state’s office after he failed to qualify for the state’s presidential primary.

A spokesman for Secretary of State Ken Bennett said that the former Utah governor filed paperwork a few hours before Monday’s 5 p.m. deadline, but that it was missing a notarized signature from the candidate.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jan 09 2012 at 10:22am PST

Interesting article that posits Huntsman may be in for the long haul if he can raise enough money…

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 08:34am PST

wstritt   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 08:10am PST

If more than one withdraws after New Hampshire, what will determine who is “next”? For example, there could be “reports from the Candidate X camp” that Candidate X is “suspending his campaign” followed by Candidate Y giving his withdrawal speech followed by Candidate X officially giving a speech announcing that he “suspended of his campaign”.

There could be numerous scenarios so though I’d ask in advance.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 08:26am PST

It would be on a “First come First served” basis.

wstritt   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 08:37am PST

Yes but “first official announcement” or “first press report” (or maybe even “first official document filing” like requesting to be taken off the SC ballot)? In other words, in the example given, would Candidate X or Candidate Y be considered “first” for purposes of this market?

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 08:50am PST

The “first official announcement” would have to be the answer in my opinion. Presss releases have been known to be wrong.

Politico   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 06:07am PST

I don’t know if he’ll be next, but I can’t see Perry staying in much longer. He’s at 1% in NH, 5th in the SC polls, and 4th in FLA.

And then there’s this: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/01/-480-the-price-rick-perry-paid-for-each-iowa-caucus-vote/250859/

wstritt   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 08:12am PST

If you think he is dropping out, Perry is really cheap in http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/42914

Note, I hold a small speculative long position in Perry in that market for just the reasons you cite.

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 09:37pm PST

Perry seems to be concentrating his efforts on South Carolina, so I don’t think he’ll drop out right after New Hampshire, even if he does dismally (as he probably will). I expect both Perry and Huntsman will drop out soon after the S.C. results — it’s a matter of which makes the announcement first.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 08 2012 at 10:44pm PST

I agree with your comments. Both will be gone after SC, and as you said, its just who will go first.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Jan 04 2012 at 06:19pm PST

Why not list Romney?

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader