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How much money will each studio gross at the domestic box office in 2012 (in millions of dollars)?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

20th Century Fox

(closed)

Predicted: 992.00

Actual: 1,025.40

Buena Vista

(closed)

Predicted: 1,518.00

Actual: 1,551.30

Film District

(closed)

Predicted: 76.00

Actual: 75.00

Focus Features

(closed)

Predicted: 147.00

Actual: 144.60

Fox Searchlight

(closed)

Predicted: 116.10

Actual: 117.80

Lionsgate

(closed)

Predicted: 791.70

Actual: 791.70

Paramount

(closed)

Predicted: 915.00

Actual: 914.40

Relativity

(closed)

Predicted: 203.30

Actual: 202.40

Sony/Columbia

(closed)

Predicted: 1,787.00

Actual: 1,792.20

Summit Entertainment

(closed)

Predicted: 475.00

Actual: 463.60

Universal

(closed)

Predicted: 1,290.09

Actual: 1,322.60

Warner Brothers

(closed)

Predicted: 1,667.00

Actual: 1,665.00

Weinstein Company

(closed)

Predicted: 248.00

Actual: 257.50

  • completed

Question ends

December 22, 2012 @ 12:00pm PST

Predictions Made

451

Most by: job (214 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

Garth Brewer   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 04:08pm PST

I just noticed the request to re-open the market. Is it too late to do that?

Garth Brewer   •   Sat Dec 22 2012 at 08:53pm PST

I did not run this market last year but participated in it. It was paid out much early than March, 2013. I cannot remember the exact date but it was in the first half of January for sure.

job   •   Sun Dec 23 2012 at 12:23am PST

I think I made a mistake in thinking that this question is ending at the same time as the ranking question, and that the revenues that the in 2012 released films make in 2013 also is relevant. But never the less, is it possible to keep it open untill Christmas is starting??

job   •   Sat Dec 22 2012 at 02:03pm PST

The answer of this question is known at the end of March 2013. Is it possible to reopen this question, so we can trade some more and prevent to lock your investments for three months.

wstritt   •   Sat Dec 22 2012 at 08:11pm PST

The answer should be known sometime the first week of January based on source cited in Background Info. Boxofficemojo.com tracks the box office reporting daily.

odysseus   •   Sat Nov 24 2012 at 03:32pm PST

Looks like I’m late to the party. I made my first million on movie markets (thank you Avatar) and always had fun with them. My trading on HSX prepared me well (OdysseusG). BOM is good for release dates, as is HSX itself (http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming). The challenge of setting prices for this kind of market intrigues me. It’s a bit daunting, but I might give it a crack before year’s end for next year’s market.

Garth Brewer   •   Mon Mar 26 2012 at 09:07am PDT

It took me awhile but I think I found a site that gives a release schedule. I won’t guarantee its accuracy as I don’t know much about movies or the industry.

EdG1975   •   Fri Jan 13 2012 at 09:18am PST

where to find which movies are to be released by each studio?

Garth Brewer   •   Thu Jan 12 2012 at 06:06pm PST

Thanks. I just copied the market from last year. I don’t really know how to set prices. I did enjoy playing this market last year – it does require some research.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Jan 12 2012 at 10:41am PST

Nice way to set the opening prices. So, overall, if we have an opinion (which I don’t) of whether the total will be higher or lower, we could just go long (or short) all the studios in proportion to their 2011 totals. Any other bet is a bet on changing market shares. At this time, I don’t know enough to have an opinion!

Rationales

"Playing For Keeps looks like a bomb and a half"

odysseus sold Film District at 79.00
November 24, 2012 @ 03:21pm PST

"Remaining revenue coming solely from Twilight 5, which is tracking Twilight 4 pretty closely, targeting 280-285 for about 457.5"

odysseus sold Summit Entertainment at 482.00
November 24, 2012 @ 03:13pm PST

"Dramatically mispriced at market creation due to lack of franchise/blockbuster titles, remaining gross is underwhelming outside of Flight"

odysseus sold Paramount at 1,171.00
November 24, 2012 @ 03:05pm PST

"Current total at 900.5, only new revenues coming from 2 month old Taken 2 and unpromoted uninspired Parental Guidance on the 25. Not enough"

odysseus sold 20th Century Fox at 982.90
November 24, 2012 @ 02:55pm PST

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historical trend

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