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Weather: Predict the number of US Tornadoes for 2012.

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

1100-1199

(closed)

Predicted: 2.87%

Actual: 100.00%

1200-1299

(closed)

Predicted: 0.86%

Actual: 0.00%

1300-1399

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

1400-1499

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

1500-1599

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

1600-1699

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

1700-1799

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

1800-1899

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

1900-1999

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

2000 or more

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

< 1100

(closed)

Predicted: 95.85%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 30, 2012 @ 10:04pm PST

topic

Science

Predictions Made

490

Most by: job (352 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

chelseaboys   •   Sun Jan 06 2013 at 12:34pm PST

Wild:

Rank Person Trades Money Earned
1 MFWinAlford
33 $31,148.19
2 shanafme
1 $658.83
3 SneakyPete
8 $0.00
4 bobdevine
12 $0.00
5 loaldo
5 $0.00
6 kittymomom
4 $0.00
7 ageiser
32 $0.00
8 Nik_Pimenta
2 $0.00
9 eaFriendly
1 $-9.57
10 wstritt
21 $-2,822.41
11 chelseaboys
4 $-6,034.28
12 ecotax
14 $-7,680.49
13 job
352 $-38,085.45

job   •   Sun Jan 06 2013 at 12:27am PST

job   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 05:40am PST

With 1114 on the counter by December 30, it is clear that “1100 – 1199” is the right answer of this question.
So it can be paid out!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

Best Record   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 02:27pm PST

Actually, the National Weather Service shows 1105:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

The NOAA site is a week behind the NWS site, so the difference is probably all the storms over that week, which was a very active one.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 02:33pm PST

However, this is my source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2012_annual_summary.html
as stated in the more information section below.

job   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 02:49pm PST

1066 is just untill December 17!

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 04:01pm PST

Right. Since the NWS is part of NOAA I would image the same number will eventually appear on both websites.

wstritt   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 04:43pm PST

Yes, holders of " are going to be very unhappy.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 01:52am PST

1096 with 4 days left in the year, and storms raging in the Northeast. Could very well go over 1100 and prove this market wrong!

chelseaboys   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 01:06pm PST

1066, not 1096. But, job’s math is just as bad. 1066 + 44 = 1110, a 10 tornado cushion.

job   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 02:11am PST

I count already 1066 plus 44 tornadoes, so 1100 – 1199 will be the right answer!

bobdevine   •   Wed Sep 26 2012 at 02:11am PDT

chelseaboys   •   Sat Sep 01 2012 at 08:33am PDT

921 thru August.

ageiser   •   Mon Jul 30 2012 at 11:42am PDT

Still in line with 2005 and 2006, which had 1216 and 1296 respectively:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

job   •   Mon Jul 30 2012 at 12:01pm PDT

Good comment!

ageiser   •   Mon Jul 30 2012 at 02:27pm PDT

Thanks Job, now I just need more people to follow my advice.

bobdevine   •   Mon Jul 09 2012 at 03:35pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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