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Chicago is hosting the NATO summit and the G8 summit in 2012; how many summit-related arrests will occur?

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PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Arrests

(closed)

Predicted: 127.25

Actual: 0.00

  • completed

Question ends

May 22, 2012 @ 10:01pm PDT

Predictions Made

253

Most by: MFWinAlford (108 predictions)

Discussion

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chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:21pm PST

Rank by Money Earned
= Currently participating in question
Rank Person Trades Money Earned
1 joshpcma
2 $0.00
2 Tom501
7 $0.00
3 wstritt
18 $0.00
4 SneakyPete
25 $0.00
5 lpalli
2 $0.00
6 abelfernandez
1 $0.00
7 chelseaboys
2 $0.00
8 leutenmayr
1 $0.00
9 bane1969
10 $0.00
10 EdG1975
1 $0.00
11 MFWinAlford
108 $0.00
12 sbalen
2 $0.00
13 Best Record
18 $0.00
14 ecotax
3 $0.00
15 K1050
7 $0.00
16 Politico
8 $0.00
17 Best4Lowell
6 $0.00
18 London Bridge
8 $0.00

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:37pm PST

Looks like the desired outcome, under the circumstances. Those of us with paper profits gave them back. My “worth” went from 3.50MM to 1.78MM. Funny thing is, the entire market disappeared from my dashboard.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:49pm PST

If I am understandig you, If we had cashed out profit during play, we had that taken back plus what we still had in th market? That would seem to me to be “Double Jeopardy”. Looks like I will be paying all my wins tonight back into this market. I will be a pauper it seems by the end of the night.

wstritt   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 05:49pm PST

Cost me 1.4 million Inkles. Oh well, at least I get my 2MM invested back to play in other things.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:48pm PST

Disappeared off mine too.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 03:56pm PST

Boy did I ever get the “Shaft” on this one. Thats all I will say.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:19pm PST

I lost 330k in unrealized profits, but 0 in hard losses (i think). Who really knows? I know my value dropped from 18.9 to 18.6MM.

Oh well. Did you hear Obama is moving the Illinois primary to Camp David too?

Tom501   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 05:27pm PST

Yeah, I dropped about 200,000 inkles worth of unrealized profit. Glad it wasn’t real money.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:28pm PST

I would not doubt the move to Camp David. “Chicago Machine Politics”. As I did not get a cash out report, I really do not know what I lost on this one. All I know is what I had in cash on hand and what I had placed prediction on the market, went away in the sunset. It was a good market until the rules changed mid stream. O well waht can say it was only “Play Money” but I hate to lose when I knew I was in the right on winning this one.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:51pm PST

I hope you mean the rules changed in real life, not here.

And there was no cash out message for some reason. Weird.

I have submitted the NATO only market. Keep an eye out and get in early to make some back.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:38pm PST

I am still paying on this one. Lost $17,000+ on the Georgia prediction. Wonder how much more I will lose.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 07:02am PST

I’d like to find a way to pay this out as I have 400 shares purchased pretty early on. But, unless we have a consensus among the major holders, I will have to refund it.

As you can imagine there is a great deal of spin in POTUS’ hometown. Here’s my favorite: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/ct-met-kass-0306-20120306,0,4087289.column

Keep the comments coming. I want to resolve this today.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 01:39pm PST

Yes, good one (ChiTri aricle). Summitectomy!

job   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 10:30am PST

This market was based upon the assumption that both summits would be held in Chicago. This is not being the case. So the question is closed and will not be reopened. So far everybody agrees.
Next issue is do we know enough to pay out at a certain level. The answer could have been 200 ……or 120….or 80 or 800 or 10!!!! The fact is we will never know the answer of this hypothetical question. So there is no reason to pay out at a certain level. What’s left is refunding the question. I think the refunding button is invented for situations like this.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 11:13am PST

I’m tending to agree, unfortuantely.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 01:45pm PST

“Refund” is a problem for the reason given by wstritt. Potentially unfair to those who bought, sold, and rebought. Problem is, there is no knowing who will get hurt, but someone will, I’m sure. I’m guessing that the suggestion to use the “uh-oh” at zero before any trades were made would solve this problem, but I’m not sure. Perhaps worth a try, and if it doesn’t work, uncashout and try something else. I haven’t added up all my trades to see if I would be hurt or helped by a “refund” but I just don’t think it’s the right thing to do. Some of the people who invested in good faith are likely to get hurt.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 01:52pm PST

But, as job has repeatedly pointed out, and I shall paraphrase, how do we pick the correct arbitrary number?

I’m afraid we’ll have to look at it as just another tax thrust upon us by Obama. At least that’s how I will look at it.

I am going to try wstritt/Adam’s zeroing out around 5:00 CST unless I read a better idea….

wstritt   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 09:35am PST

Seems to me if you refund, you need to refund as of the beginning of the market (or cash out at 0 with “oops” as of the beginning of the market before any trades were made). If I recall from a comment elsewhere, a refund only refunds current positions but gains/losses from trading in and out will remain in place so traders who happened to have gained from “trading” will be unfairly enriched versus those that have “bought and held”. If market “didn’t exist” which is inplied by refund, every trade should be wiped out.

Separately, it might be interesting to see if there are any independent estimates behind number of arrests and cash it out there. I’d imagine the administration must have thought the number could be high (so may have had estimate) which is why they moved meeting to Camp David.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 11:12am PST

I was not aware that there was the problem with refunding that you described. Perhaps Adam can weigh in on this.

As to finding a government estimate, I haven’t the time to do that, sorry.

As to why it was moved to CD, remember this is an election year and any stink from Chicago would ultimately land on the desk of candidate POTUS.

wstritt   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 11:52am PST

Adam’s comment in “help”: “People are only refunded for whatever positions they had when you cashed it out. If they had made trades and liquidated those before you cashed out, those trades are not rewound.”

http://support.inklingmarkets.com/discussions/for-problems/685-refund-issues

wstritt   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 08:31pm PST

One other thought – I’d be happy with a cash out at 150 since of course it would have been at least that many if they hadn’t chickened out. I suspect most traders would be happy with that outcome (except for shorts, if any).

: )

job   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 01:01am PST

If you want to pay out, the only way is to see how many arrest there will be in Chicago under the new circumstances. Just paying out at 150 gives a good profit for most players (but NOT all), but it is not the good way to end this question. Refunding is a better solution.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 04:58am PST

I am travelling and just saw this discussion. I have made 108 trades here, using it like a bank account. I’ve put free inkles in here, then taken them out when I see a short-term opportunity to make a profit before May. I’m not sure whether I’ve made or lost money doing that, but my guess is it’s probably a wash. Still, refunding doesn’t feel right to me. I like the idea of cashing out at 150, since it appears from the chart that no one paid more than that, so no one would get burned. And, I agree that to reopen this would be unfair because there would be a rush for the exits, and someone would lose out. So, I will go along with with either a refund or a payout of 150, and my preference is the 150.

job   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 05:45am PST

For someone who sold a lot of shares in the range between 145 and 130 (what I did) it is not fair to pay out at 150. My intention was to buy the shares back at a later time, but now it is impossible to do so. If you pay out – what is in my opinion not the right thing to do – than I prefer a price around 50 or so! But that will be unfair to a lot of other players. So far everybody will go along with a refund. So maybe this is the best thing to do!

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 06:17am PST

Job, your logic is peccable. I sold plenty of shares in the 125 range. What has that to do with anything? I’m concerned about those who paid 150, where the price stayed for a period. It wouldn’t be fair to them to give them a loss, in my opinion.

job   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 06:37am PST

That’s why I think refunding is the only right thing to do. Then there will be no losses , not for the ones who bought at high prices and not for the ones who have short positions.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Mar 06 2012 at 06:55am PST

Not necessarily, because of Inkling’s FIFO accounting. If you bought at 150, sold at 100, then bought again at 125, a refund would give you 125, but you still lost 50.

wstritt   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 05:28pm PST

My vote would be refund and start a new NATO only market. Maybe if there was a war to protest but NATO isn’t quite as cool of a target as G8 given issues are primarily economic.

Problem with re-purposing this one is that except for the first person to trade after the market reopens, current long participants probably won’t be able to unwind their positions without getting hammered.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 06:05pm PST

Great point. I concur with your comment on getting hammered.

job   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 02:44pm PST

Refunding looks fair to me. I don’t see any other solution. Changing the question without refunding is unfair. Best is to start one new question for the NATO top and one for the G8. I will be glad when it can be closed soon to use the Inkles somewhere else.

Tom501   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 02:29pm PST

From my own position I would say role it over to just the G8 Summit. The number you are at right now is a fairly good starting point for just the one event and the actual number of arrests could go either higher or lower than it.

chelseaboys   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 01:49pm PST

I have suspended this market due to the decision to move the G8 summit to Camp David: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20120305/NEWS02/120309916/g8-summit-in-chicago-canceled

I got to it before anyone shorted this market (although I was tempted….). Anyway, because the NATO summit is still on, what does the crowd feel is an appropriate thing to do:
a. Refund this market and start a new one for NATO;
b. Re-open this market as NATO only;
c. Something else.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 01:58pm PST

With the decision to move the G8 summit to Camp David I would say refund start a new one for NATO. The G8 Summit would have been the MAIN driving source of arrests as opposed to the NATO Summit. Just my view.

ecotax   •   Mon Mar 05 2012 at 02:09pm PST

I agree. This market was based upon the assumption that both summits would be held in Chicago. This not being the case, refunding makes most sense to me.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Feb 29 2012 at 02:04pm PST

I am anticipating a problem and hereby giving FAIR WARNING to solve it:

The arrests will not need to be made, per se, by the Chicago PD. Any authority of the government will do (feds too). Also, the arrest need not occur in Chicago as long as it is summit related. I raise that because of rumors that the protestors may try to disrupt things in the metropolitan area so as to negatively impact Chicago (for example they might try to shut down expressways or commuter trains, etc). The imagination boggles.

I have also heard (from suburban emergency personnel) that the protestors have devised some type of chaining together device to inhibit the ability of the officers from separating them to haul them off to the pokey. Here is a link to a similar device: http://missoulian.com/news/local/article_9861769a-acb1-11e0-aa99-001cc4c03286.html. The person I was talking to said that the anarchists, err protestors, go one step further and cover the pvc pipe in tar so that the police efforts to cut them apart are inhibited/delayed by gumming up the saws.

Finally, the issue of time. Again, if it’s a summit-related protest with arrests it doesn’t matter if it occurs during the actual summit; however, in order to have an end to the market, I am saying that it must occur in May, 2012.

As Bluto said in “Animal House”, “This is going to be GREAT.”

wstritt   •   Wed Feb 29 2012 at 06:11pm PST

I thought that was Flounder.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXxy8cjZQA

chelseaboys   •   Thu Mar 01 2012 at 07:11am PST

Your research skills surpassed my memory. Perhaps more evidence that my college experience was more akin to Butarsky than Flounder.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 12:32pm PST

A website devoted to collecting stories about Chicago’s preparedness: http://www.chicagog8.com/

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 12:44pm PST

I like the countdown clock. They are obviously using WordPress for this blog. Nice format. Here’s a relevant post: http://www.chicagog8.com/?p=257

ecotax   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 01:58pm PST

A 13.000 strong police force… At the current market price, that’s one arrest per 100 police officers.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 08:30am PST

FYI… The current range for the protest population is estimated to be at between 10,000 and 50,000. http://www.chicagog8.com/

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 09:01am PST

Yes, and this tidbit: “There were 137 arrests when Pittsburgh hosted the G20 in 2009…” I imagine Chicago can do better than that!

SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 09:10am PST

I am sure that they will. They are the one mean bunch of hardnose, head banging, @#$ kicking members of the police community, that I know.

wstritt   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 05:09pm PST

So why is everyone selling then?

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 07:22pm PST

I don’t know if “everyone” is selling, but I have been. I’ve been reinvesting the inkles elsewhere when I see a short-term profit opportunity. For example, I own qbout 2,000 shares of Job’s Apple stock price at the end of March. That’s a bit more than 2MM inkles, and when it pays out at the end of March, I’ll probably reinvest it here, lifting this price by a not insignificant amount. I have many other similar positions and will redirect funds here before the arrests begin. So, my selling here is strategic, and is not based on an opinion of what will happen in this market. Just so you know!

SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 09:14pm PST

Smart strategic move for you is understandable. I just have to leave mine in place for now.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 06:21pm PST

I wish I knew. The number should, I hope, be going back up. Profit taking I would guess.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 02:39pm PST

Oh, gee, then I guess we’re undervalued! ;)

SneakyPete   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 01:31pm PST

The "Countdown Clock is a neat twist to the NATO Summit. Also found it interesting that the Occupy Chicago group has announced that they have rented a warehouse within “sight and sound” of McCormick Place, the main venue for the G8 and NATO Summits. Another group has called on its members to come to Chicago for the entire month of May to protest. It appears that the Chicago Police Department will have a busy month of May ahead of them.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 02:00pm PST

We can only hope!

Get your tasers and billy clubs ready boys, it’s time for an ass whoppin’.

But seriously… the State Court is contemplating a shutdown that week; however the Rahmfather said today that he is working on a deal to compensate any businesses in thecritical area for losses. Now that’s the Chicago Way!

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