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Will UK NGDP be above 5% for Q4 2012?

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PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 1.33%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 25, 2013 @ 01:08pm PST

Predictions Made

20

Most by: wstritt (3 predictions)

Discussion

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anthonyjevans   •   Mon Jan 28 2013 at 04:28am PST

Apologies for the confusion with this question (I blame the ONS!) The market was due to close on 25th Jan but the release for 2012 Q4 does not include a value for NGDP. Since it’s the preliminary estimate it only includes qoq RGDP (which is -0.3%). I didn’t realise that IHYR would be blank, and IHYO isn’t reported. See here: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_296664.pdf

I will close it properly when the QNA are released in late March 2013. As Lars says, it’s better to think in terms of the LEVEL, but as Britmouse has pointed out the level gets rebased. Hence we should look at absolute amounts:

Table C1: Quarterly National Accounts – Gross domestic product: expenditure at current market prices = YBHA

anthonyjevans   •   Mon Apr 08 2013 at 08:56am PDT

wstritt   •   Mon Apr 08 2013 at 10:04am PDT

IHYO is 1.5% if I read chart right. Market should cash out at 0.

MarketMonetarist   •   Mon Feb 06 2012 at 08:45am PST

The relevant question to ask is not about the growth of NGDP (nominal GDP), but rather about the LEVEL of NGDP.

wstritt   •   Mon Feb 06 2012 at 09:00am PST

Thanks for answer but, then, MFWA’s question is still there: “5% of what?” as I’m used to seeing GDP stated in units of some currency rather than as a percentage. Would appreciate further clarification.

MarketMonetarist   •   Mon Feb 06 2012 at 09:17am PST

This is meant to be 5% year-on-year growth on the UK’s nominal GDP. The British central bank – even though it officially targets the inflation rate – as indicated that it has a 5% y/y growth target of NGDP.

Targeting the LEVEL of NGDP is suggested as a proper target for central banks by Market Monetarists like Scott Sumner (www.themoneyillusion.com) and by myself (Lars Christensen, www.marketmonetarist.com)

wstritt   •   Wed Feb 01 2012 at 06:08pm PST

I’m guessing Nominal Gross Domestic Product but could be something else. But is it quarter over prior quarter or quarter over prior year quarter? Given the 5% hurdle, I would guess over prior year but clarification would be helpful.

anthonyjevans   •   Mon Jul 23 2012 at 04:08am PDT

Sorry – the question should have clarified that it is quarter over prior year quarter, which is series code IHYO in the National Quarterly Accounts [http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/all-releases.html?definition=tcm:77-23645].

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jul 23 2012 at 07:01am PDT

I wonder if Inkling has a badge for the longest response time to a query. Not quite 6 months, but almost! ;)

anthonyjevans   •   Mon Jul 23 2012 at 09:27am PDT

The question was a trial and I apologise for not keeping a closer eye. You can see more details here: http://www.kaleidic.org/news/2012/7/23/towards-a-ngdp-futures-market.html

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Jul 23 2012 at 12:18pm PDT

I was teasing you! Thanks for the info. I’ve glanced at your website and will read it more carefully later.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Feb 01 2012 at 02:35pm PST

What is “NGDP” and 5% of what? Can you give us a link to information on this? That would be very helpful. Thanks.

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