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Will any serious candidate for the 2012 Republican Party presidential nomination be selected as the 2012 Republican Party vice presidential candidate?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 24.24%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 26, 2012 @ 08:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

52

Most by: ChloeBurns (14 predictions)

Discussion

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GoldenSunKing   •   Thu Aug 16 2012 at 07:57pm PDT

Hey, close this. Its over a week now

mvguy   •   Fri Feb 03 2012 at 07:30am PST

I’ve been thinking of cloning the presidential nomination market at http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/17958 and using it as the basis for a vice presidential market. If I do that, which names should I add to the list? I don’t want to leave out any reasonably likely possibilities.

wstritt   •   Sat Feb 04 2012 at 08:11am PST

By the way, there is already a Republican VP market that has been up for a bit more than a week. http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/43221 Maybe not as all inclusive as you have in mind but just thought I’d point it out.

mvguy   •   Sat Feb 04 2012 at 08:54am PST

I missed that. I have no desire to compete with that market, so I won’t proceed further with my plan. Thanks for pointing it out!

mdrichards   •   Fri Feb 03 2012 at 08:02am PST

Good idea. You did a great job with that list; I think this one would be quite a bit tougher!

I think I’d start with anyone who’s endorsement is highly sought, prominent governors, former Speakers, Whips, Leaders, and Secretaries of Defense or State. Probably also recent failed (but strong) presidential candidates.

I think it’ll probably be someone from the South or West if it’s Romney and from the West or Mid-west if it’s Gingrich.

mvguy   •   Fri Feb 03 2012 at 09:40am PST

And even with a list that was as complete as I could come up with when I made it (very early in the election cycle), I still didn’t have three major contenders (Bachmann, Santorum and Cain). That’s what I want to avoid, but to do so I’d probably need to add more names to the list than would be practical.

mdrichards   •   Fri Feb 03 2012 at 09:49am PST

Santorum is the only one I really would’ve said “yeah, that guy might run” and I certainly would’ve have come up with him on my own. It’s going to be impossible to have a fully comprehensive list but your’s was about as close as I think anyone could get. A VP one would be a lot tougher I think. They can often be real surprises.

You might do a market like I’ve seen where you select things that are true about the eventual candidate: former or present govornor, former cabinet member, ambassador, senator, congressman, ceo, millionaire, etc etc.

mvguy   •   Sat Feb 04 2012 at 09:06am PST

Since there’s already a good who-will-be-the-veep-candidate market, I think I’ll do a veep-traits market like you suggest. I’ll put it together sometime in the coming week.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Feb 03 2012 at 10:47am PST

Great idea. Would be a very interesting market to follow.

wstritt   •   Thu Feb 02 2012 at 09:25am PST

mdrichards   •   Thu Feb 02 2012 at 09:16pm PST

Thanks, that’ll be the list for judging.

I should’ve looked that up before posting but I guess was feeling lazy. hah.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Feb 02 2012 at 07:06am PST

Can you be more specific? There have been more debates than candidates, so I’m not sure whom you are including? For instance, did Pawlenty or Christie debate?

wstritt   •   Thu Feb 02 2012 at 09:22am PST

Don’t know about Christie but Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Gary Johnson were all on early debate televised by Fox so presumably “Yes” for Pawlenty and the other 4.

http://blogs.citypages.com/blotter/2011/05/tim_pawlenty_debate_quotes.php

Clarification (preferably via a list of candidates) would be helpful.

historical trend

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