Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Who will succeed Job Cohen as the leader of the Dutch Labour party in the parliament?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Diederik Samson

(closed)

Predicted: 87.36%

Actual: 100.00%

Frans Timmermans

(closed)

Predicted: 0.85%

Actual: 0.00%

Nebahat Albayrak

(closed)

Predicted: 3.29%

Actual: 0.00%

Ronald Plasterk

(closed)

Predicted: 8.93%

Actual: 0.00%

Jeroen Dijsselbloem

(closed)

Predicted: 0.31%

Actual: 0.00%

Mariette Hamer

(closed)

Predicted: 0.31%

Actual: 0.00%

Sharon Dijksma

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

any other member

(closed)

Predicted: 0.41%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 12, 2012 @ 02:40pm PDT

Predictions Made

86

Most by: job (48 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

job   •   Sat Mar 17 2012 at 12:51am PDT

Samson won the race!

EdG1975   •   Tue Feb 28 2012 at 04:06am PST

Also Lutz Jacobi (who??) has candidates herself. So 5 possible winners. 3 named and 2 other. Other members are cashed out at zero.

Voting is from March 7th till March 14th.

EdG1975   •   Thu Feb 23 2012 at 07:21am PST

so far Samson, Plasterk and Van Dam (other) are candidates. The deadline is on Tuesday for making candidates.

ecotax   •   Sat Feb 25 2012 at 03:53am PST

Albayrak just joined the party. Still, they may just spoil the fun by picking a different candidate.

EdG1975   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 04:52pm PST

NOS journaal (daily news of the Netherlands) reports for a voting at march 16th. Therefore enddate changed to march 12th

EdG1975   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 08:19am PST

At the moment it’s unknown when the new leader will be elected. The only thing for sure is that members chose the new leader. When the date when the choice is known, I will adjust the end date to 1 day prior.

See also (sorry just in Dutch)

http://www.nu.nl/politiek/2746294/leden-pvda-beslissen-nieuwe-fractieleider.html

ecotax   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 09:28am PST

Makes sense. For now, you could set the end date to e.g. 1 may, for the time being, to avoid temporarily closing the market two days from now.

EdG1975   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 12:12am PST

I don’t think anyone of these members will be able to give strong opposition against Wilders. As a liberal (VVD) there is no need for strong opposition against the present government.

ecotax   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 09:24am PST

In my opinion, given the current economic situation, strong opposition against the government wouldn’t be in the country’s best interest. I’d strongly have preferred a different government, but I can appreciate they’re trying to make the best of it, and a different government would have had a hard time too.
But someone more suitable than Cohen to stand up against Wilders – yes, please!
All just my opinion of course – BTW, it seems at least we agree that most of these candidates wouldn’t be a good choice in that respect.

ecotax   •   Tue Feb 21 2012 at 12:05am PST

Nice question. I sure hope it will be Nebahat Albayrak; it would be a relief to finally get some strong opposition to Wilders’ xenophobic ramblings from the PvdA.
A strong, intelligent, emancipated woman with a Turkish background should be able to provide just that. Realistically, they will most likely pick a less interesting candidate and slowly become even less relevant than they already are.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader