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Chicago is hosting the NATO summit in 2012; how many summit-related arrests will occur?






Predicted: 100.14

Actual: 113.00

  • completed

Question ends

May 22, 2012 @ 10:01pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: MFWinAlford (282 predictions)


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London Bridge   •   Thu Jul 05 2012 at 11:04am PDT

job   •   Thu Jun 07 2012 at 06:22am PDT

CB, thanks for running this question and the time you have spend to bring this question to a good end!

chelseaboys   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 09:13am PDT

Unless someone finds a detention number, I will close this at 113 at 4:00 CDT.

While it started out as a fun market, it has turned into a PITA, thanks mostly to a pretty effective set of crowd dispersal techniques employed by the gendarme.

job   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 08:52am PDT

chelseaboys • Mon May 21 2012 at 07:20pm CEST
I agree with 90 as of Sunday evening.

We all agreed with 90 as the number reached at sunday evening. After that trading in this question was speculating about more arrests to come. No summit related arrest however took place. So to be fair to the traders who had taken positions on the base of CB number at sunday evening, it is fair to end this question with the final number of 90!

chelseaboys   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 09:08am PDT

You are going the wrong way. You said you would live with our neutral observers opinions of whether to add 15 to 113, not to 90.

Nice try.

job   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 09:16am PDT

CB, I think that my statement is quite fair, but it is just a game and ……… to end this never ending story just close it at 113! I made already a few millions profit, so that is not my point of interest!

chelseaboys   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 06:25am PDT

Iam very comfortable with 113 ARRESTS. 91 was reported as the number Friday-Sunday. 22 was readily identifiable as the number prior to Friday. Chicago keeps paying “victims” big settlements for prior head cracking techniques so they have a large monetary interest in keeping the number as low as possible. Thus their “official” count only looks to the time of the summit.

What we still can’t verify is the number of detentions. MFW suggests an approximation; however, I can’t recall any other Inkling markets settling on an approximation, can you? I’d hate to set that precedent here.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 06:52am PDT

I think it has become evident in the course of this discussion that having such a market (with no authoritative source) is quite problematic. It’s not like a sports score, a market price, or an election result, with numbers that appear on various and reliable sources. As a result, we will not have any answer that will satisfy everyone.

I’m sure we will all respect whatever decision you make, CB, though there may be some carping. You’re in a difficult spot, but of course it is one of your own making! ;)

wstritt   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 07:51am PDT

Of course, there is always the refund option which I’m guessing no one would particularly care for.

job   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 05:56am PDT

Occupy Chicago said … more than 100 people were detained by police.

This is the original source of the 100 detained people. But if you read the article it is all about this statement:

“Police said they arrested at least 45 people Sunday. The National Lawyers Guild estimated 60 arrests Sunday and more than 100 since the summit began.”

That is only a difference of 15 arrests on sunday! The 100 where all the arrests since then, and as the police later reported only 8 more than the police reported.
After all the 113 of CB are the highest ever mentioned anywhere and in my opinion propbably too high.

job   •   Tue Jun 05 2012 at 06:39am PDT

When I look back to the comments made during the summit, I notice that the then reported arrests where well under the 91 the police reported later. So it is possible the police are inclusive the detentions. Or maybe the detentions where fictional and where part of the media offensive of the protesters. So without an official source the answer to this question should be 113 arrests!

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 03:53am PDT

Job, your logic is peccable. You, like the CPD, have an interest in keeping the number low. Clearly, the detentions were not counted by them as arrests. This issue is whether there is an accurate source for a count of detentions. One could argue that at least 50 and maybe as many as 100 (or more) should be added to the 113. My suggestion is to take the middle ground, add 75 to arrive at 188 and put this thing to bed.

job   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 05:48am PDT

Yes maybe…….
Maybe ….10, 50, 100, 200 or zero. You can make the party as big as you want then. My point is that after the 45 arrests on sunday evening CB agreed on a total of 90 arrests. That includes 22 before 5-18 and 68 during the Summit ( 5-18 untill 21-18). The police reported later 91 instead of the 68 arrest witch were reported during the summit. The explanation can be that ……..
1. they also counted the arrests prior to 5 – 18 (outcome of this question is 22 less)
2. They also counted 22 detentions of the sunday mass arrests.
3. there were more arrests then reported by the media.
Number 3 is doubtful, every little event was reported those day ! Maybe CB was right at the end of the Summit and 90 is the right number .

chelseaboys   •   Mon Jun 04 2012 at 01:52pm PDT

OK, thank you all for your opinions.

I will concede the post-summit 15.

Does anyone have a source for detentions because most of our “neutral observers” agree that detentions should be included?

Without any detentions, I would close this at 113.

Please let me see any detention sources within a day or two. Thanks.

Anyone interested in protestor arrests at the party conventions?

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Jun 05 2012 at 06:09am PDT

Somewhere back in this thread I pointed out the discrepancy between one of the police reports (~50 detentions, as I recall) and the Occupy claims (~100, I think), but I don’t remember seeing any updates to those numbers. Given that both sources are biased, it might be “neutral” to take an average, although my own proclivities, of course, are to believe the Occupiers.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Jun 05 2012 at 01:05pm PDT

Here were your two posts; however, you were comparing apples and oranges (45 arrests vs. 100 detentions) as you yourself pointed out in your second post:

“Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy says the protests of the NATO Summit resulted in 45 people being arrested and four officers suffering injuries – one from a stab wound in the leg.

That brings my informal estimate to 90, with 2+ more days left in this market."

“Occupy Chicago said … more than 100 people were detained by police.

This is sharply higher than the 45 reported by the police. Again, may be the semantics of “arrested” versus “detained”…"

If I have time later I’ll try to search the web about NATO detentions. If anyone finds anything, let me know…and the closer the source is to “official” the happier job will be.

Garth Brewer   •   Sun Jun 03 2012 at 10:25am PDT

I basically agree with what Philculp says, “After reading through the comments and articles I don’t feel the last 15 arrests would be considered summit related. It feels as if the article made mention of the summit simply as a way to introduce a different protest. If the summit did not occur at all in May I believe this protest would have still taken place.”

I also think the detentions should count because of what was written at the beginning of the market, that they would count. I think “detentions” are a way of getting people off the streets who are, from police perspective, causing trouble. If I set up a similar market at some time, I would not count detentions as I have noticed in my life that police will use events such as the summit to clean up the streets of “criminals” totally unrelated to the event itself.

bane1969   •   Sat Jun 02 2012 at 08:29pm PDT

it would be in my interest to count the last 15, but i have to be honest. it looks like it was organized by a local group with no particular interest in the nato summit. the nato protests may have helped inspire more people to attend, but it wasn’t cause on the protest and there isn’t even any real evidence that it had any overlap in people with the nato protests.

wstritt   •   Fri Jun 01 2012 at 04:38pm PDT

For what it is worth, the “Final 15” looks purely economic rather than “summit related” and local (Illinois local anyway) rather than global.

Also, for what it is worth, while I traded in this market, I currently hold no position so, short of a refund, there is no impact on my net worth one way or the other though, for ranking purposes, there might be an indirect impact based on how cash out impacts others.

chelseaboys   •   Sat Jun 02 2012 at 06:48am PDT

But how can you extract economic protestors from non-economic protestors? The summit drew plenty of occupiers, who don’t give a rat’s ass about NATO…except that it’s part of their “1% mentality”. So, I continue to be underwhelmed with that argument. However, I am glad you are at a relatively net 0 so you can make it in an unbiased manner. Thanks.

philculp   •   Fri Jun 01 2012 at 12:39pm PDT

After reading through the comments and articles I don’t feel the last 15 arrests would be considered summit related. It feels as if the article made mention of the summit simply as a way to introduce a different protest. If the summit did not occur at all in May I believe this protest would have still taken place.

In regards to detentions, if a specific number could be determined I think they should be included in this market.

Seems like I missed out on quite a bit of fun, lol.

chelseaboys   •   Fri Jun 01 2012 at 08:27am PDT

I just quickly scanned the report of all predictions to see which one or two of our regualrs had no skin in this market. I think Garth, philculp and ChloeBurns are non-participants. I will e-mail them with a link to this market and ask their opinions. Fair enough?

job   •   Fri Jun 01 2012 at 09:39am PDT

Odysseus, does he has any shares in this question???

job   •   Fri Jun 01 2012 at 06:44am PDT

I think it is wise to ask someone without any interest in the outcome of this question his opinion (the admin) about the 15 post summit arrests. For me it is clear it has nothing to do with the Nato-Summit….but let’s ask someone else!

chelseaboys   •   Fri Jun 01 2012 at 08:22am PDT

I imagine Adam has been monitoring this. I would welcome his opinion.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 04:37pm PDT

As to the last bunch of comments (since my last one): counting detentions as arrests for the purpose of this market was established before the summit began, by CB’s comment as quoted by ecotax. Changing this definition after the market closed to trading would be unfair. My question as to how CB was going to handle it related to the discrepant reports from the Occupiers and the Police, not whether detentions would be counted, since it was already established that they would be. CB warned us all he would give a “liberal” interpretation to what counted, so I think he should do just that.

All that said, I don’t have a lot at stake here. At one point, I had some 15 million inkles invested here, but as it became apparent that the outcome wouldn’t support that, I slowly sold off shares and ended with about 3 million. The numbers being discussed here are somewhere around breakeven for me.

chelseaboys   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 08:25pm PDT

I have no hard numbers for detentions.

What’s your opinion on the post-summit 15?

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Jun 01 2012 at 05:57am PDT

I believe they should be counted. I agree with your comments that this would not have happened except in the context of the Summit foofarah, so they were “summit-related” — that said, of course, I’m long this market, so I am speaking from my position.

chelseaboys   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 02:35pm PDT

Oh, and by the way, my Question said “summit related” not “NATO-related”….

chelseaboys   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 01:35pm PDT

As May dwindles away, here are my totals (subject to any comments/criticisms made by June 1 at 4:00CDT. Then the only change will be any new summit related arrests (for instance if the molitov felons had a co-conspirator that gets arrested later).

The Sunday Tribune had an article limiting the 91 arrests to “between 5-18 and 5-21”. Here is the link:,0,3443630.story

I went back through all of our comments to identify arrests made prior to 5-18 and found 22. 91 + 22 = 113. Then there are the 15 arrested after that job challenged me on, but no one else has said anything one way or the other. I’m still inclined to count them. 113 + 15 = 128.

Make your arguments in the next 24 hours.

All in all a very disappointing finish. But, a fun market to play.

job   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 02:23pm PDT

The last 15 arrests had nothing to do with the Nato top, so 113 is in my opinion the right number.

chelseaboys   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 02:34pm PDT

You and I disagree. I’ll leave it to the masses. Let’s hear from others….

My feeling is that the protest wouldn’t have gone forward in a typical week in Chicago. It was all part of protest week. Also, while I’ll give you the fact that it wasn’t an anti-war protest, it was a 99%-er theme and there were lots of occupy groups at the NATO protests….

What say others?

odysseus   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 03:10pm PDT

The article in the link says those 91 “do not include the felony arrests of five people on state terrorism or explosives charges”, are those five included in your tally?
As for the 15 bonus arrests, I agree with Job, it’d be a real stretch. That protest has nothing to do with NATO or the summit.

chelseaboys   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 08:23pm PDT

Yes, they are included in the 22 prior to the 91.

job   •   Thu May 31 2012 at 03:01pm PDT

It would be nice if someone without any interest in the outcome of this question gives his opinion.

chelseaboys   •   Thu May 24 2012 at 06:30am PDT

I think it was part of the whole 99% plan.

chelseaboys   •   Wed May 23 2012 at 06:36pm PDT

We may have 15 more. It’s still May.

job   •   Thu May 24 2012 at 05:05am PDT

Not really related to the Nato Summit.

job   •   Wed May 23 2012 at 03:20pm PDT

I understand the disappointment that there are no more than 90 Arrests. The maximum price rose to almost 200! But….that is the game, you can win or loose. I think is not wise to increase the pay out artificial, by adding indefinable detentions.

job   •   Tue May 22 2012 at 02:17pm PDT

In my opinion detention is not the same as arrest. The question is about arrests so that should be counted. And as you pointed out before the announcement has to come from most official source. So i think the 90 arrests mentioned by The Chicago Police Department meets the requirements.

ecotax   •   Wed May 23 2012 at 02:58pm PDT

On the other hand, on the 19th CB wrote: “Anytime the State detains you, and you are not free to leave, I believe the Supremes equated that to an arrest. At least that is my recollection from THE University of Illinois College of Law in the early 1980s!”.
I assume that the article he just linked to (which I didn’t read) argues likewise.

chelseaboys   •   Tue May 22 2012 at 01:50pm PDT

I am considering allowing the detentions. A good summary of the law is here:

Let me know your thoughts. And also, whether you have any sources for detentions.

The number of arrests keeps bouncing around. Did anyone here of any on Monday? At the end of Sunday, we were pretty sure of 90 arrests and an unknown number of detentions.

Tom501   •   Tue May 22 2012 at 09:13pm PDT

I would benefit from you doing so and am a little conflicted because of it. If the detentions were done to break up the demonstrations then I think they should be counted. If they really were for investigative purposes then they shouldn’t.

job   •   Tue May 22 2012 at 12:19pm PDT

job   •   Tue May 22 2012 at 05:42am PDT

Chicago Police say 90 Arrested in NATO Protests
The Chicago Police Department says 90 people were arrested before and during the NATO Summit.

It looks like this will be the answer of this question

wstritt   •   Mon May 21 2012 at 05:27pm PDT

“The National Lawyers Guild estimated 60 arrests Sunday and more than 100 since the summit began.”

wstritt   •   Mon May 21 2012 at 05:23pm PDT

job   •   Mon May 21 2012 at 12:31pm PDT

Chicago NATO summit protests calm after rough Sunday, police say

job   •   Mon May 21 2012 at 07:35am PDT

Police grab protesters on Milwaukee Avenue 11:53 p.m.
Police charged into the crowd of marchers on Milwaukee Avenue and grabbed three people. Two women were arrested.,0,7328400.htmlstory

job   •   Mon May 21 2012 at 06:21am PDT

CB, it is good to tell us on what way you will count the arrests. The official police reports, the reports of the protesting groups, the average between both???. Only arrested or also the detained numbers.

Please let us know!

BTW: I think that the most reliable and unambiguous are the official reports from the police about the ARRESTS they made.

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