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Will Mitt Romney have won the required 1,144 delegates as reported by RCP to win the GOP Presidential nomination PRIOR TO the primaries and caucuses being held on 5 June 2012?

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PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 89.17%

Actual: 100.00%

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Question ends

May 13, 2012 @ 09:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

126

Most by: K1050 (33 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Wed May 30 2012 at 05:51am PDT

Mitt Romney won the required 1,144 delegates as reported by RCP (1,169) to win the GOP Presidential nomination PRIOR TO the primaries and caucuses being held on 5 June 2012.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

SneakyPete   •   Tue May 29 2012 at 04:40pm PDT

See the followinh web site for the GOP Primary results in TEXAS tonight.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/texas

SneakyPete   •   Tue May 29 2012 at 03:38pm PDT

It appears, that the TEXAS vote today, will carry Mitt Romney over the top. Prior to the TEXAS vote, Real Clear Politics has him with 1,064 delegates with Nebraska’s 35 delegates not declared yet. All Romney would need to do is get81 TEXAS delegates to carry him over the 1,144 needed to get the GOP nomimation. No way will any one else stop him from doing it. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

SneakyPete   •   Wed Apr 04 2012 at 09:58am PDT

Following the 3 April voting, Romney is sitting at 655 delegates according to the New York Times. To Reach the 1,144 delegate number, he will need to get 489 more delegates (1,144 – 655 = 489). There are 662 potential from now to the Texas primary being held on 29 May. The question is can the remaining candidates get 174 delegates before the 6 June elections. Will Santorum carry Pennsylvania? Will Missouri remain in his delegate column? What percentage of the 155 Texas delegates will he get? These states plus the fact that there are 7 states which award proportional delegates and only 1 (Delaware) which is a winner take out state. The probability of Romney reaching the 1,144 delegate c http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.htmlount, before the June voting, still remains less than 25% in my view. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

SneakyPete   •   Wed Mar 14 2012 at 10:38am PDT

Dlegate Count as of 14 March 2012:
Romney 3,472,365 495
Santorum 2,282,245 234
Gingrich 2,101,951 142
Paul 949,207 64

SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 12 2012 at 03:16pm PDT

Santorum’s Delegate Math Looks Different From Romney’s…

Rick Santorum’s campaign has begun to argue forcefully that Mitt Romney will fail to win the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination for president, leaving the decision to a wide-open national convention in Tampa, Fla., this summer.

But Mr. Santorum and his advisers believe that he — along with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul — can effectively block Mr. Romney’s march to the nomination over the next three months. If that happens, they argue, Republicans will gather for their convention with no certain winner — and with Mr. Romney at a disadvantage.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/santorums-delegate-math-looks-different-from-romneys/?nl=us&emc=edit_cn_20120312

bobdevine   •   Sun Mar 11 2012 at 03:40pm PDT

This gives state-by-state rules for each primary/caucus.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/

SneakyPete   •   Sun Mar 11 2012 at 04:05pm PDT

Thanks for the great site. Better than what I was using.

east1999   •   Sun Mar 11 2012 at 01:10pm PDT

Say Santorum is offered the VP position and seals a deal to pledge his delegates to Romney? I mean, he barely has a path to win the nomination race now, so does he want to be shamed and buried in debt by May? I guess Romney will start accusing his adversaries of delaying him in the fight against Pres. Obama any minute now. I also don’t think Gingrich will stay for another month if he fails to win any Gulf primaries.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Mar 11 2012 at 04:08pm PDT

For the purpose of this market, I am coiunting only those won in a primary or caucus election. As for Ginrich, it MY opinion that he will be in for a while yet. He SHOULD do well in Alabama and Mississippi. Not sureabout Louisiana though.

Politico   •   Sun Mar 11 2012 at 06:42pm PDT

What do you mean “do well”? Newt “Toast” Gingrich (you need to learn how to spell his name) will be lucky to win any of those contests, and if he does it will be only by a slim margin. If his entire base of support is in the Deep South, as seems to be the case, I can’t see his benefactors continuing to pour money into a losing campaign. He has such a big ego he will hang around as long as he can, but the writing is on the wall.

polkastria   •   Wed Mar 14 2012 at 04:39pm PDT

Sheldon Adelson is using Newt to help support Romney. As long as Newt is in the race it takes a few delegates away from Santorum and protects Romney. Adelson likes both Newt and Romney but will keep Gingrich in the race for awhile to support Romney in his own way, indirectly.

mvguy   •   Sun Mar 11 2012 at 06:48pm PDT

Yeah, I see Gingrich as the longest of the long shots. There just aren’t many places he’ll be able to win after Tuesday, and even in Alabama and Mississippi he’s not likely to win (if he does) by more than a point or three.

bobdevine   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 08:00pm PST

Romney now has 454 delegates.

Here’s how his campaign views the remaining primaries:
http://www.mittromney.com/blogs/mitts-view/2012/03/our-opponents-last-stand-postmortem

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 08:15pm PST

What a sop! “Romney’s opponents attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person’s odds of winning they are increasing are President Obama’s.” Love it!

SneakyPete   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 08:46pm PST

I will have to partially agree with you that Romney will most likely be the GOP nominee. As for increasing President Obama’s chances, he will continue to hurt his own chances with his and his party’s policies and agenda. As others have said here, this will be a very long and nasty, election cycle. It is going to be very interesting to see, just how low and dirty both sides will get, particularly on the left. Wish that they, both sides, would just stick to the issues. We all know it is coming. Just hate to see, “Chicago Style Politics”, happen.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 04:57pm PST

Speaking of time, Set your clocks forward on Sunday (2am), for daylight savings time.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 07:11pm PST

…unless you’re Republican, in which case you want to set the clock back 100 years.

Joke making the rounds on Facebook tonight. It looks like Rush might finally have gone too far. Reports are that he has lost 100 advertisers, and that many of these are withdrawing from all “controversial” programs. It might be fun to have a market on predicting his last day on the air…

SneakyPete   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 07:39pm PST

We could also say that “Unless you are a Democrat” you must set the clock back 100 years. Why don’t we have a market as to when Bill Maher’s HBO show will leave the airways? Or perhaps Ed Schultz, the host of MSNBC’s “The Ed Show”, might be another good one. It just amazes me, of the double standard we are seeing on Rush, when Bill Maher gets nary a word or comment on his antics. Odds are that his million dollar political donation will remain in President Obama’s and DNC’s war chest. It seems that are again seeing an attempt to close down “Right” talk shows. Just a thought and I will get off my band stand for now.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Mar 10 2012 at 04:42pm PST

Let me see if I can work the numbers on this market. As of 10 March Romney has a total of 433 assigned delegates leaving him to gain 711 to reach the magic 1,144 nomination number. There are 1,069 potential delegates remaining to be had before the 5 June primaries/caucus. This would mean he would need to win 711 (59%) of the remaining 1,069 potential delegates. Looking at the states holding their primaries/caucus’s before 5 June we see areas that Romney will not gain a large number of Delegates. As example there are 7 Southern states here Santorum and Ginrich will pick-up the majority of delegates. There are additionally a number of large delegate states (Texas, Pennsylvania, New York, and Illinois as example) where the delegates will be split amongst a number of the candidates. Is it possible for him to accomplish his 711 goal – sure? Is it probable – I think not? Perhaps my effort to analyze the probability of him reaching the 1,144 magic number is off-base. Just wanted to stir the pot a little. Time will tell.

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