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Who will win the Illinois Republican Presidential Primary being held on 20 March 2012?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Mitt Romney

(closed)

Predicted: 88.03%

Actual: 100.00%

Newt Gingrich

(closed)

Predicted: 0.12%

Actual: 0.00%

Other or Tie

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

Rick Santorum

(closed)

Predicted: 11.49%

Actual: 0.00%

Ron Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.16%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 19, 2012 @ 08:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

55

Most by: SneakyPete (9 predictions)

Discussion

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MFWinAlford   •   Tue Mar 20 2012 at 06:19pm PDT

Not even close! Already been called for Romney: he leads by 20 percentage points early on (38% reporting)…

chelseaboys   •   Wed Mar 21 2012 at 07:09am PDT

There must have been alot of Democrat cross-over support for Mittens as I am sure they/you have assessed that he is completely beatable in Nov.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Mar 17 2012 at 09:50am PDT

It is going to be interesting to see how Santorum does in the Chicago area. Romney, I believe, will do well there, while Santorum will pick up votes across the remainder of the state. It will also be interesting to see, if Paul will pass Gingrich, to come into third place. He has his base but think he will come in fourth. Also interesting to see how much cross-ver votes will be sicnce Illinois is a “Open Primary State” where any voter – regardless of party registration – may vote in the primary of either major party (but not both!): Democrats may, if they wish, pass up their own party’s primary to vote in the Republican primary, while Republicans may choose to pass up their own party’s primary to vote in the Democratic primary.

chelseaboys   •   Sat Mar 17 2012 at 10:24am PDT

Your analysis is spot on, as usual, SP. Interestingly, in viewing the landscape of yard signs that I see in my county (in metro Chicago area), I have yet to see a single Presidential sign. I would wager that this will be a pitifully low primary turnout here. Sadly, I believe that is mainly due to the woeful candidate choices.

I really wish Paul had a chance. Just to shake up this miserable system of money politics. I sense a vote for him will not serve my “anti-Mittens” stance now that Santorum has made things a bit closer. Thus, I am still undecided.

Rationales

"He drew in 5,000 to his rally. The others could barely draw a couple hundred."

uS$6wahp bought Ron Paul at 0.18%
March 15, 2012 @ 11:29pm PDT

historical trend

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