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What will the margin of victory of the first place over the second place candidate be in the Illinois primary being held on 20 March 2012?




6.99% or less


Predicted: 14.80%

Actual: 0.00%

7.00% - 11.99%


Predicted: 18.91%

Actual: 100.00%

12.00% - 14.99%


Predicted: 45.56%

Actual: 0.00%

15% or greater


Predicted: 20.72%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 19, 2012 @ 06:59pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: job (12 predictions)


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SneakyPete   •   Wed Mar 21 2012 at 07:17am PDT

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 20 2012 at 09:22pm PDT

Theere are still 5 counties which have nor reported 100% of their votes and one county (Macoupin) which has not reported any of its votes. Still too close for me to determine the correct prediction of this market. Will wait till in the morning.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Mar 20 2012 at 09:02pm PDT

With 98% of the votes counted:

Candidates Votes Percent
Mitt Romney 421,543 46.70%
Rick Santorum 315,918 35.00%
Ron Paul 83,766 9.30%
Newt Gingrich 71,570 7.90%

46.7% – 35.0% = 11.7% Difference.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Mar 19 2012 at 09:20am PDT

Will we be seeing a larger win by Romney than what Market is indicating? We will see tomorrow.

historical trend

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