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Which Horse Will Win the 2012 Kentucky Derby?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Mark Valeski

(closed)

Predicted: 1.23%

Actual: 0.00%

On Fire Baby

(closed)

Predicted: 0.51%

Actual: 0.00%

1 Daddy Long Legs (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.91%

Actual: 0.00%

2 Optimizer (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.18%

Actual: 0.00%

3 Take Charge Indy (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 7.85%

Actual: 0.00%

4 Union Rags (9-2)

(closed)

Predicted: 7.13%

Actual: 0.00%

5 Dullahan (8-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 9.60%

Actual: 0.00%

6 Bodemeister (4-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 27.92%

Actual: 0.00%

7 Rousing Sermon (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.22%

Actual: 0.00%

8 Creative Cause (12-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 7.61%

Actual: 0.00%

9 Trinniberg (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.56%

Actual: 0.00%

10 Daddy Nose Best (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.15%

Actual: 0.00%

11 Alpha (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 4.47%

Actual: 0.00%

12 Prospective (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.86%

Actual: 0.00%

13 Went the Day Well (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.89%

Actual: 0.00%

14 Hansen (10-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.57%

Actual: 0.00%

15 Gemologist (6-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 7.05%

Actual: 0.00%

16 El Padrino (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.76%

Actual: 0.00%

17 Done Talking (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.59%

Actual: 0.00%

18 Sabercat (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.58%

Actual: 0.00%

19 I'll Have Another (12-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.58%

Actual: 100.00%

20 Liaison (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.74%

Actual: 0.00%

21 My Adonis (also eligible)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.68%

Actual: 0.00%

Field (any other horse not listed)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.56%

Actual: 0.00%

Howe Great

(closed)

Predicted: 0.37%

Actual: 0.00%

Secret Circle

(closed)

Predicted: 1.18%

Actual: 0.00%

Wrote

(closed)

Predicted: 1.84%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

May 05, 2012 @ 06:01am PDT

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

183

Most by: wstritt (44 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Up Date

chelseaboys   •   Sat Mar 31 2012 at 04:33pm PDT

Hansen is “E” not “O”. Sorry. And Thanks for doing the Derby!

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Apr 01 2012 at 02:00am PDT

London Bridge   •   Tue Apr 03 2012 at 04:09am PDT

Interesting analysis of recent upsets and how they might affect who will run. Also, first I’d seen of this: for the first time ever, there may be up to four also-eligibles, meaning that it’s almost certain the field will be at a full 20 even if there are last-minute scratches.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-latest-round-preps-muddle-picture

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Apr 12 2012 at 03:11am PDT

Players: change in plans. Please note this will now be the only Kentucky Derby market this year. I have added some horses that are new to the Top 20 list. Only one horse has been eliminated; the filly On Fire Baby is now going to run in the Oaks, not the Derby.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 02 2012 at 06:36am PDT

I have added the Daily Racing Form estimated odds after each horse that is currently expected to start or be named an “also eligible” — the final cut and the draw for post positions will be done later today.

Meanwhile, Mark Valeski has been withdrawn, so paid out at zero.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 02 2012 at 03:30pm PDT

The Post Position numbers have been drawn and are shown here before each horse’s name. Also, the official Churchill Morning Line odds are shown, which are pretty close to what were given in the Racing Form except that some of them are a bit more generous (i.e. shorter).

Bodemeister is the slight Morning Line favorite over Union Rags. Both horses drew favorable post positions in the inside gate. Gemologist was the only horse with fairly short odds that drew an outside slot — number 15.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 02 2012 at 03:33pm PDT

Just to be clear, from this point on, any horse that does not start for any reason will be paid out at zero. Unlike the track, there will be no refunds for late scratches.

chelseaboys   •   Wed May 02 2012 at 04:59pm PDT

Do you have a link to horse/jockeys?

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 02 2012 at 08:28pm PDT

Yup, sorry, I should have provided that. Here’s where I got my info: http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby

They may also have a free Form, I haven’t looked yet…

wstritt   •   Sun May 06 2012 at 03:27am PDT

Did anyone pick the winner? At 1.58% predicted, I’m guessing not.

MFWinAlford   •   Sun May 06 2012 at 05:13am PDT

Well, three players made money, one in a big way. I was one of the losers (both here and in real life — I had my money on Bodemeister, who ran as the favorite and came in 2nd).

Rank Person Trades Money Earned
1 Best Record 9 $27,461.33
2 K1050 1 $270.12
3 ksisco 17 $250.71
4 samlepirat 2 $0.00
5 wstritt 44 $-0.30
6 greyarea 2 $-31.10
7 point0507 1 $-203.57
8 akoperwas 18 $-709.96
9 bobdevine 13 $-1,364.95
10 chelseaboys 10 $-4,905.18
11 themaster 4 $-6,276.13
12 MFWinAlford 23 $-7,261.52
13 London Bridge 11 $-7,290.09

wstritt   •   Sun May 06 2012 at 07:11am PDT

Round trip cost me .30 Inkles but cash out popped my net worth by around 6MM. Gotta love it!

Best Record   •   Mon May 07 2012 at 11:39am PDT

Yup, bought 300 shares for less than 600 inkles — I figured the winner of the Santa Anita deserved a bit more respect!

historical trend

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6 Bodemeister (4-1)