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What will the sentence be for Khalid Sheik Mohammed in his trial for orchestrating the 11 September 2001 attacks?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

He receives a death sentence.

(closed)

Predicted: 87.60%

Actual: 87.60%

He receives a life prison sentence.

(closed)

Predicted: 12.05%

Actual: 12.05%

Other than a death or life sentence

(closed)

Predicted: 0.34%

Actual: 0.34%

  • refunded

Question ends

May 01, 2014 @ 09:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

31

Most by: GradualStudent (7 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Mon May 05 2014 at 07:01pm PDT

Market has been refunded.

GradualStudent   •   Fri Jan 03 2014 at 08:25pm PST

Shudder to ask, but what if this never comes to trial, or the trial is never completed?

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/59925

SneakyPete   •   Fri Jan 03 2014 at 09:51pm PST

It looks like it may not come to trial soon. Market has gone almost 2 years so far. If no resolution takes place by 1 May I will refund it.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Apr 28 2013 at 05:16pm PDT

I will be keeping the market open until the completion of his trial as indicated in the background information below. See Note one `The market is asking what his sentence will be, as passed down by Judge, at the completion of the KSM trial.` and Note two `The market closing will be adjusted, depending on the progression, of the trial.`.

GradualStudent   •   Sat Apr 27 2013 at 08:21pm PDT

My recommendation would be to treat no sentence as “Other than a death or life sentence”.
The that a trial might not happen seems reasonable enough to have considered as a possible outcome at the closing date.

GradualStudent   •   Wed Apr 24 2013 at 11:51am PDT

what happens if a sentence is not issued by 30APR, does that count as “Other than a death or life sentence”? Or does that moot the question, the first five words of which seem to assume that there will be a sentence of some kind.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 10 2012 at 10:33am PDT

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is dying to be executed. He’s confessed to plotting the 9/11 attacks and a host of other terrorist activity, and said he’d like to be a martyr. Jurors may also pass on a death sentence precisely because Mohammed wants one. “There is a sense of not wanting to satisfy his desire to win adulation for his cause.” http://www.newser.com/story/115758/khalid-sheikh-mohammed-trial-military-tribunal-less-likely-to-sentence-him-to-death.html

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 10 2012 at 08:47am PDT

Question???? Will a death sentence cause an outbreak of anti-American terrorist activity around the world? While I would agree that the death sentence would be appropiate, I also believe that political considerations may sway the court away from, a death sentence.

foobar   •   Tue Apr 10 2012 at 09:01am PDT

I am heavily invested in predicting a death sentence (in the Inkling sense). I am personally against the death sentence in all cases – but I believe KSM will receive the death penalty. I don’t think there will be an enormous outcry from those opposed to KSM’s death if this is the penalty received – there was little political backlash from OBL death (excepting Pakistan’s concern that they were not informed prior to the invasion – but I believe this was more about sovereignty)… But, yeah, as I disclosed above – I am investing in the death penalty. There was a larger backlash for burning Korans than OBL’s death.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 10 2012 at 09:27am PDT

I fully agree with your comments on the death sentence. He should have gotten it, already, as far as I am concerned. I do not believe that military courts have passed down a death sentence since WW 2.I may be wrong. The events of 911 created an outpouring of anti-American sentiment around the world, which I believe, may occur once again. His trial may just possibly light the fuse to see this happen once again.

Rationales

"100"

GradualStudent bought Other than a death or life sentence at 0.26%
April 24, 2013 @ 11:52am PDT

historical trend

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