Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

When will Fred Thompson announce his candidacy for the Republican Nomination?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

August

(closed)

Predicted: 0.44%

Actual: 0.00%

July

(closed)

Predicted: 0.44%

Actual: 0.00%

June

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

May

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

October or Later

(closed)

Predicted: 0.44%

Actual: 0.00%

September

(closed)

Predicted: 98.02%

Actual: 100.00%

Will Not Run

(closed)

Predicted: 0.66%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

October 31, 2007 @ 12:00am PDT

Predictions Made

137

Most by: taylor (23 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

Radam Smith   •   Sun Jul 15 2007 at 03:45pm PDT

Recent reports and articles like this one: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0707/4947_Page2.html
mention the campaign staff saying they are pushing back the date tobetter set up the campaign fully before declaring and to probably get some more money without revealing all the money contributors. Now they are seriously talking about August or even September, depending on when Thompson himself ays he’s ready. With only half a month left and Thompson not going for the roughly July 4 date mentioned before, it seems more likely it won’t be July, so the July price should drop…

jerrylshaw   •   Thu May 31 2007 at 06:35am PDT

Am I missing something? The word seems to be that he says he will announce in July. So, yesterday and today, the bottom falls out of the July price. Now either I don’t understand the way the market works, or the market is reacting irrationally to this information, or someone with more knowledge is assuming that he won’t formally announce in July. I’m willing to accept any of these hypotheses, but my gut tells me (based on the announcement that he’ll make it official in July) somebody is making a really bad and ill-informed bet.

Can someone help with this?

cygnusx3   •   Mon Jun 04 2007 at 10:43am PDT

Profit taking? Maybe limited funds and another market looked like a faster profit? (sure thing with an earlier market end date).

Maybe the trader had his eye on a brand new, 2008 Inkling? You know, 405 hp, convertible…red?

cygnusx3   •   Wed May 30 2007 at 10:45am PDT

Right. The announcement was that he was setting up an “exploratory committe” and that the decision was not yet made. Love those ambiguities!

cwtapp   •   Wed May 30 2007 at 07:07am PDT

If he does indeed announce in July, then yes, that will be the correct answer.

ajtaylor   •   Wed May 30 2007 at 06:43am PDT

According to this article, written in May,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0507/4243.html

Fred Thompson plans to “enter the presidential race over the Fourth of July holiday”. I presume that, for the purposes of this market and if the author is accurate, July would be the correct answer?

Is that accurate?

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader

More information about the possible answers

August

July

June

May

October or Later

September

Will Not Run