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How many medals will these nations win at the 2012 Olympic Summer Games in London?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Australia

(closed)

Predicted: 35.00

Actual: 35.00

Canada

(closed)

Predicted: 18.00

Actual: 18.00

China

(closed)

Predicted: 92.10

Actual: 87.00

France

(closed)

Predicted: 33.00

Actual: 34.00

Germany

(closed)

Predicted: 44.00

Actual: 44.00

Great Britain

(closed)

Predicted: 62.50

Actual: 65.00

Italy

(closed)

Predicted: 23.00

Actual: 28.00

Japan

(closed)

Predicted: 37.00

Actual: 38.00

Russia

(closed)

Predicted: 79.70

Actual: 82.00

USA

(closed)

Predicted: 104.00

Actual: 104.00

  • completed

Question ends

August 12, 2012 @ 01:00am PDT

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

164

Most by: job (59 predictions)

Discussion

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marmot   •   Fri Jul 06 2012 at 06:37am PDT

I’m also a bit confused. I just bought 5 shares in GB at 49.00 (assuming that it would win 49 medals – have I understood correctly?). But in purchasing them, it pushed the price up, presumable meaning they have to win more medals to make my prediction come true.

This seems a bit odd that making a predication then changes the prediction. How would I predict that GB would win 25 medals?

I prefer the ones where you predict a fixed number of medals(and effectively buy shares in a single prediction). That seems to make more sense to me…

ecotax   •   Sun Jul 29 2012 at 05:12am PDT

It may be confusing initially, but it’s quite normal. Somehow, by buying or selling, you always influence the price of the stock. ‘Price’ may represent a date which is then moved to a later date, a probability or percentage which then gets higher, a number of seats in a parliament or whatever. In this case, it’s a medal count.
When you make a purchase, the dialog will tell you how much you will change the price. A larger transaction has a larger influence. How much larger is determined by some scaling factor the market creator can set. Occasionally, this is set a bit tight, and a small purchase will influence the price a lot (in which case you will typically try sell your shares back immediately before anyone notices), but generally, this scaling is more or less fine.
Note that this means that, for example, if you ‘know’ GB will win 60 medals, and the current prediction is 49, you have a choice on how to make profit out of this: you can buy just a few shares, pushing the price up to 50, and make a 20% profit on those, or buy a lot, pushing the price to 55 or even to 59, and make a lesser percentage on a larger number shares.
Typically, the prices don’t remain constant over time though, and a lot of loss or profit can be made by buying or selling shares before they pay out. If you find the GB shares priced at 70 tomorrow, you can sell them with profit, pushing the price back a bit in the process.

jsw740   •   Wed Jun 06 2012 at 06:13pm PDT

Each medal = One Inkling. At the conclusion of the games, the markets will cash out at the number of medals that the country won. If USA gets 3 medals, USA will cash out at 3 inklings. If Canada gets 90 medals, it will cash out at 90 inklings. It’s fairly simple how Inkling has these numerical stocks set up.

greyarea   •   Tue Jun 05 2012 at 02:04pm PDT

I would like to participate in this market but I do not understand how the market will be scored against share prices.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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Australia

Canada

China

France

Germany

Great Britain

Italy

Japan

Russia

USA