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Judgment time

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How many runs will each 2012 MLB Playoff Team team score during the postseason?




Arizona Diamondbacks


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Atlanta Braves


Predicted: 3.00

Actual: 3.00

Baltimore Orioles


Predicted: 24.00

Actual: 15.00

Boston Red Sox


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Chicago Cubs


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Chicago White Sox


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Cincinnati Reds


Predicted: 29.00

Actual: 22.00

Cleveland Indians


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Colorado Rockies


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Detroit Tigers


Predicted: 59.00

Actual: 42.00

Houston Astros


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Kansas City Royals


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Los Angeles Dodgers


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Miami Marlins


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Milwaukee Brewers


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Minnesota Twins


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

New York Mets


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

New York Yankees


Predicted: 21.00

Actual: 22.00

Oakland Athletics


Predicted: 24.00

Actual: 11.00

Philadelphia Phillies


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Pittsburgh Pirates


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

San Diego Padres


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

San Francisco Giants


Predicted: 77.00

Actual: 69.00

Seattle Mariners


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

St. Louis Cardinals


Predicted: 66.50

Actual: 57.00

Tampa Bay Rays


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Texas Rangers


Predicted: 20.00

Actual: 1.00

Toronto Blue Jays


Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Washington Nationals


Predicted: 53.00

Actual: 16.00

  • completed

Question ends

October 26, 2012 @ 12:00am PDT



Predictions Made


Most by: MFWinAlford (505 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

chelseaboys   •   Mon Oct 29 2012 at 09:52am PDT

Love to see stats here…..

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Oct 29 2012 at 10:57am PDT

With the usual caveat that these numbers only reflect positions that were open at the time a stock was closed out, and even those do not represent profits/losses taken along the way. I made too many trades here to keep track of all of them, but I know my number does not reflect a bunch of profitable positions I closed out early so I could invest the inkles in others. I’m guessing that the fewer trades you did, the more likely these numbers are to be accurate.

So, however you did in actuality, here’s what Inkling thinks you did:

Rank Person Trades Money Earned
1 wstritt 210 $1,760,995.00
2 chelseaboys 82 $837,555.00
3 Garth Brewer 105 $500,500.00
4 job 105 $167,040.00
5 EdG1975 14 $110,803.75
6 K1050 1 $5,595.00
7 onedave 13 $2,469.90
8 EduardoLopez 4 $1,199.55
9 theycallmemorty 1 $375.00
10 sally 2 $0.00
11 jsw740 2 $0.00
12 Politico 1 $-6,645.00
13 Ishmael17 4 $-13,500.00
14 Best4Lowell 3 $-143,855.00
15 London Bridge 8 $-153,000.00
16 Best Record 32 $-264,401.55
17 MFWinAlford 505 $-2,525,789.9

chelseaboys   •   Mon Oct 29 2012 at 11:06am PDT

Thanks for sharing…an playing…caveat or no!

For what it’s worth, I fept the final positions I had in every stock up on my dashboard and when I added them today I was only 55.00 off.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Oct 25 2012 at 04:30am PDT

Reminder: trading on this question will close after tonight’s game. (3 AM tomorrow, ET)

chelseaboys   •   Sat Oct 13 2012 at 06:40am PDT

Ahh. Almost completely eliminated all Eastern Seaboard Programming Network bias teams from the playoffs. But, it does have a nice Midwestern feel!

wstritt   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 09:19pm PDT

Party time for Cardinals. Woo-hoo

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Oct 13 2012 at 05:07am PDT

Yes, the Cards are hot. They have scored more than twice the number of runs than any of the other 3 survivors. Still, I was sorry to see the Nats end their season that way. Being ahead 6-0 for most of the game, then seeing the Cards pile on…

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 07:31pm PDT

Warning: time has expired on trading for the Cards/Nats game. For the losing team, that is. Feel free to buy as many shares as you like in the winner…

wstritt   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 06:19pm PDT

I believe Orioles cash out was a bit early. Game start time was 5:07PM EDT so cash out should be 7:07PM EDT. See paragraph 9 (unless the edit article in which case paragraph might move) of article in “newspaper of record”. I think you may have mistakenly cashed out at 7:00PM EDT.

chelseaboys   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 08:49pm PDT

Every start time I saw was 4:07 pm CDT for the Yankees and 7:37 for the Nats.

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 06:48pm PDT

Advertised cashout time, as agreed, is “scheduled starting time plus 2 hours”…

See my 10/8 update to “Background Information” — it appears to me you made bundle of inkles betting on that unsavory non-Baltimore team anyway (unlike me, since I was rooting for the Birds!).

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 07:05pm PDT

And, just to be clear, my judgment was not clouded by the delightful Malbec consumed over dinner at my favorite local restaurant, Rouge. Certainly one of the best, if not the best restaurant in the Berkshires. I know it’s the Governor’s favorite.

I was invited by two friends of mine who live two towns away, and Rouge is in the town between us. As I walked in, they were standing at the bar, and evidently had just told the owner they were waiting for me, because she turned and, seeing me, said “and here he is!” You know you live in an intimate community when everyone knows everyone else by name.

wstritt   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 07:17pm PDT

TV broadcast start time was 7PM to get in brief pre-game. Scheduled start time of actual game is 7 minutes after broadcast start time. If you don’t like Fox confirming the New York Times, I can probably find a neutral source. : )

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 07:29pm PDT

Well, you’re obviously splitting hairs here. I was going by the scheduled starting time. As far as I’m concerned, that’s as official as you can get. I didn’t look at the trades, but I guess you must have made a huge trade between 7:00 and 7:07 to be making such a big fuss over this.

wstritt   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 07:44pm PDT

Indeed. Knowing the starting time was 5:07, I was trading up to 7:07 since I was watching game anyway. MLB advertises the broadcast start time, not game start time. Here’s another:

Google “mlb scheduled starting time” and the first thing you should see is schedule with starting times regularly 7 minutes after the hour or half hour.

Here too:

wstritt   •   Fri Oct 12 2012 at 08:26pm PDT

I’ll even Google it for you:

My son did that for me once. Thought it was pretty amusing.

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Oct 13 2012 at 05:04am PDT

Very clever. Okay, in future, I will take time and add 7 minutes.

This won’t be an issue for the next few days.

wstritt   •   Sat Oct 13 2012 at 06:25am PDT

Ummmm….how about fixing Baltimore?

wstritt   •   Sun Oct 14 2012 at 07:20am PDT


wstritt   •   Tue Oct 09 2012 at 04:55pm PDT

You are no fun, pausing the question. ;) Reds may not win tonight and we may want to be trading accordingly. Now we just have to be lucky enough to be around when you reopen the market for trading. Maybe you could give everyone advanced warning of re-open timeso we can have a contest of who is quickest to buy some SF shares.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Oct 09 2012 at 05:18pm PDT

Ah, yes, I pondered that dilemma. Do you think it better that I just “uh-oh” the trades that are made after our previously-agreed 2-hour deadline? The difficulty is, as you point out, that this is only a “potentially” deciding game — not like they are tied 2-2 and we know it’s the last game.

The problem is, if I allow trading in-game, and it turns out to be “deciding” does that invalidate the trades on both teams or only the loser? Not sure how to do the former (in fact, I suspect there is no way). So, right now it’s a 1-1 tie in the 8th inning, but if the Reds had run away with the scoring and led 20-1 or so, I prevented players from making ungodly profits by shorting the Giants, but not by buying the Reds, who would then go on to play at least 4 more games.

What to do? I exaggerate of course, and quite frankly maybe I should just stay out of the way and use uh-oh, which was invented for [vultures like] you. I just happened to be by my computer tonight, following the progress of the game, but that’s not typical.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Oct 09 2012 at 05:35pm PDT

Okay, after more contemplation (and another glass of wine — a nice Liberty School Paso Robles 2009 Cab, a brand I used to buy for $6/bottle that now goes for 3x that px!), I have decided that your complaint is the winner. I will therefore reopen the question without prejudice, since it is now still 1-1 in the bottom of the 8th.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Oct 09 2012 at 05:48pm PDT

Another wine-induced contemplation: if a player was convinced that I would enforce the 2-hour uh-oh, there would be no reason not to buy a bunch of SF shares. If the Giants lose, the trade gets nullified. If they win it doesn’t, and we’re off to the races. How to protect against that?

wstritt   •   Tue Oct 09 2012 at 08:03pm PDT

Carrying on your theme, after finishing a nice glass of Atticus John 2009 Napa Cab, occurs to me you could just pause the potentially cashed out stock(s), like the A’s shortly.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Oct 10 2012 at 02:44am PDT

That would certainly be a more sensible alternative, but I wasn’t aware that was a possibility. How does one do that?

wstritt   •   Wed Oct 10 2012 at 04:01am PDT

No idea. I saw your comment on Reds/Giants market so assumed you saw it done. Maybe ask CB.

wstritt   •   Tue Oct 09 2012 at 05:56pm PDT

That is certainly a risk though probably not much of one in this case since Giants are likely to get bounced anyway without scoring tons of runs. Any massive buy would get crushed in the subsequent shorting.

wstritt   •   Thu Oct 11 2012 at 04:13pm PDT

Guess I was wrong.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Oct 11 2012 at 04:47pm PDT

Giants? Yeah, they don’t have much of a chance of advancing. Oh, wait…

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Oct 08 2012 at 02:22am PDT

October 8 update: now that the schedule has been announced, I set the end of trading to be after the 2nd game of the World Series.

Going forward, all deciding games will be uh-ohed to scheduled starting time plus 2 hours.

wstritt   •   Sat Oct 06 2012 at 05:21am PDT

Why the early cash out of the Rangers? Game didn’t end until almost midnight EDT. 11:56 PM actually based on 8:37PM EDT scheduled stating time and 3:19 time of game (though I recall pressing the trade button on my last trade while Murphy’s last out fly ball was in the air with time stamp of 8:57PDT but, oh well).

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Oct 07 2012 at 04:09pm PDT

I hadn’t stated an explicit rule for uh-ohing deciding games, mostly because I hadn’t given it any thought until it actually came up. I guess I was adhering to the tradition that CB has used in his MLB (and other) markets of using the starting time plus two hours.

Without objection, I will add that provision to this market. Besides you, there were also a couple of other players who sold the Rangers late in the game (or maybe even after it was completed). I apologize for not being clear about this ahead of time, but in the spirit of Inkling, I would like there to be an element of risk in predictions, so that they are forecasting outcomes, not recording them.

Hopefully, there are enough profit opportunities here that you and others will be kind enough to overlook my oversight and go on to make oodles of inkles.

wstritt   •   Sun Oct 07 2012 at 04:43pm PDT

Starting time +2 hours on deciding game is fine with me. Hadn’t noticed that rule being applied on other on a couple of other stocks so was surprised when it happened on the Rangers. Did make so inkles anyway since I had been shorting it for a while.

wstritt   •   Fri Oct 05 2012 at 06:12pm PDT

Braves protest denied. Atlanta can cash out at 3.

The reverse order on comment confused me too. Thought I had done something to,do that.

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Oct 05 2012 at 05:56pm PDT

Oh, goodness, I just noticed — they’ve started doing comments in reverse chronological order. Smart idea, I think, but it threw me off for a minute there.

wstritt   •   Fri Oct 05 2012 at 05:43pm PDT

So question is, I suppose, will MLB affirm Atlanta’s protest and have them play the last 2 innings again.

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Oct 05 2012 at 05:57pm PDT

Seems unlikely, but wuddoo I know?

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Oct 04 2012 at 07:19am PDT

chelseaboys   •   Wed Oct 03 2012 at 04:51pm PDT

Why the magic numbers 20 & 40?

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Oct 03 2012 at 05:28pm PDT

Ah! I guess you probably want a reality-based answer. I’ll try. It was my round-off of the following logic. See “Background Information” for, ah, er, background information. My estimate there is that a total of 390 points will be scored post-season.

So, I rounded that off to 400, spread among 10 teams. But, two of those teams will be eliminated in the wild card game, and will score only ~5 each. BUT if they win that game, then could go on to score a lot. So, how to value them? They have a 50% chance of scoring 5 runs, and a 50% chance of scoring 40 runs. On average.

Hey, if you have an opinion about who is going to win, go for it. I’m being agnostic, and saying each team has an equal chance. That will, in the end, prove to be wrong, but I’m hoping my winners will exceed my losers. Things will change rapidly as the post-season gets underway.

Hey, in the end, it’s a crapshoot, as you know!

wstritt   •   Wed Oct 03 2012 at 05:43pm PDT

How are the Red Sox doing this year by the way. Haven’t heard much about them….

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Oct 04 2012 at 01:50am PDT

Red Sox? Remind me again, is that a baseball team?

My father was a Pirates fan. His moment of glory was Bill Mazeroski’s home run in 1960. Before that, in the 50s, I asked him why he cheered for a team that was always in the cellar. He explained that it was for the same reason I was a Brooklyn Dodgers fan. When he was growing up, all the superstars played for the Pirates.

Baseball was important to my family. His parents met because of baseball. My grandmother was a big Phillies fan. She grew up in Vineland NJ before the days of the automobile, and her father took her to games in Philadelphia. Her family summered in the Berkshires (my roots go back to 1750). My grandfather was the star pitcher on the local semi-pro team. That’s how they met. Family lore has it that he was offered a job by the Boston Pilgrims (later to become the Red Sox), but in those days that was a disreputable profession, so his family forbade him. He became a bank teller instead. Just as well, I suppose, or I might not be here. I’ve since learned that the name of the team was probably something else, but I’m sure the essence of the story was true.

I wrote a story for a baseball fan magazine (at the request of the editor/publisher) some years ago called “Baseball and my Father” in which I told this story plus some of my memories of Little League. When my father saw it, he wrote a story called “Baseball and MY Father” — I’ll see if I can dig them out for you sometime.

wstritt   •   Wed Oct 03 2012 at 04:55pm PDT

I’m guessing average runs scored per team of 39 last year plus 2 extra play in games get you to 40. The play in participants only have 50/50 shot of really being in playoffs hence 20. Assumes everyone has equal shot which is probably incorrect but that is probably MFWA’s or someone else’s arb strategy.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Oct 03 2012 at 05:32pm PDT

Exactly. You could also use similar logic to say (if each team has an equal chance) that the non-wildcard teams should now sell for 45 and the wild card teams for much less — maybe even 5 or 10.

And, of course, if you have an opinion about which teams have a better (or worse) than average chance of winning, that would color what you are willing to pay.

chelseaboys   •   Mon Sep 17 2012 at 12:40pm PDT

How can my current profit/loss for one stock be a negative number that is larger than my Maximum loss for that stock?

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Sep 17 2012 at 01:45pm PDT

That’s Chicago accounting for you!

chelseaboys   •   Tue Jun 26 2012 at 11:44am PDT

So, now, a value point = 10 runs?

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Jun 26 2012 at 03:04pm PDT

I’m not sure what you mean by a “value point”…

When you make a trade, 1 share is worth 1/100 of a run, so in order to move the price by one run, you need to buy/sell 100 shares. I don’t completely understand how this works — I got there by trial and error. The “price” is 10 times the number of runs (maybe that’s what you mean by “value point”?). The leverage is 1:10, so somehow that works out to 100:1. When you figure it out, please explain it to me, but I think I’ve gotten us where we want to be. If a team is selling at 10 runs, it takes about 10,000 inkles to move it by one run. I think that’s enough to satisfy the big players, but also low enough to allow a few players to buy some shares even if their balances aren’t in the millions…

I’ll be interested to see what people think as the market matures.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Jun 26 2012 at 03:22pm PDT

Value point meaning 1.0 of “predicted value” as we see it on our dashboards.

And yes, you have to do it by trial and error. Good thing we aren’t surgeons!

EdG1975   •   Tue Jun 26 2012 at 10:25am PDT

As beginning: It’s a great question with wonderful background info ( a little bit too much for me to fully understand). Concept is great and comparable with the NBA en NHL questions.

Leverage factor could be higher. 100 to 1 is okay. 1000 to 1 is too big in my opinion.

For the timing effect: it might be even more interesting to submit this question before the season starts.

I understand CB feeling “here we go again” , which can be resolved by letting Job and CB as the first ones before others do.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).