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What will the 2012 level of NGDP be for the UK economy?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Less than 99.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Between 100 and 104.99

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Between 105 and 109.99

(closed)

Predicted: 1.62%

Actual: 0.00%

Between 110 and 114.99

(closed)

Predicted: 98.36%

Actual: 100.00%

More than 115

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

June 28, 2013 @ 09:00am PDT

Predictions Made

63

Most by: ageiser (17 predictions)

Discussion

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wstritt   •   Mon Apr 08 2013 at 05:41pm PDT

YBEU was 110.0 on the nose. “Between 110 and 114.99” should cash out at 100.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q4-2012/rft-data-ref-tables-q4-2012.xls

Table A1, First column.

wstritt   •   Fri Dec 28 2012 at 02:36pm PST

Real GDP estimated at -0.1% to +0.1% for 2012. With inflation in 2.5-2.8% range, nominal GDP growth should be higher than the 1.66% increase required to bring index over 110 but below the 6.2% required to get it above 115.

http://news.kuwaittimes.net/2012/12/05/britain-extends-austerity-cuts-gdp-forecasts-uk-fiscal-watchdog-sees-1-1m-jobs-lost-to-austerity/
http://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/global-economy-watch/gew-projections.jhtml

ageiser   •   Mon Jul 30 2012 at 04:58pm PDT

I am confused as to where you are getting this data from. . Your Index is implying 3.44% growth over 2011. I am showing the follow quarterly growth for the UK, Q1 +0.5%, Q2 +0.1%, Q3 +0.6%, Q4 -0.3%.
Please help me out, I want to make sure I am looking at the right numbers. My data is coming from Bloomberg (by extension its the governments figures). I beleive the figures are nominal GDP growth, but if they are real, that could be the issue.

Thanks in advance

anthonyjevans   •   Wed Jan 02 2013 at 01:46am PST

Does the “background information” section below answer your question?

ageiser   •   Mon Jul 30 2012 at 04:00pm PDT

Thats Nominal GDP correct? If the UK’s GDP grows by 10% the index would be at 119.02, right? [(108.2 * (1+.10)) = 119.02]

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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