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Which of these Republicans will announce his/her candidacy for President of the United States (2016 election) first?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (FL)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.18%

Actual: 0.00%

Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.97%

Actual: 0.00%

Fmr. Gov. Sarah Palin (AK)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Fmr. Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum (PA)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.16%

Actual: 0.00%

Fmr. Vice-President Dick Cheney

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Gov. Bob McDonnell (VA)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.30%

Actual: 0.00%

Gov. Chris Christie (NJ)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.67%

Actual: 0.00%

Gov. Mitch Daniels (IN)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.12%

Actual: 0.00%

Gov. Nikki Haley (SC)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Gov. Rick Scott (FL)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.28%

Actual: 0.00%

Gov. Scott Walker (WI)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.33%

Actual: 0.00%

Rep. Eric Cantor (VA)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

Rep. Paul Ryan (WI)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. John Thune (ND)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.28%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Marco Rubio (FL)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.09%

Actual: 0.00%

Sen. Rand Paul (KY)

(closed)

Predicted: 92.36%

Actual: 100.00%

Mitt Romney (President or not)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 01, 2016 @ 03:09pm PDT

Predictions Made

241

Most by: ChloeBurns (81 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

chelseaboys   •   Sat Mar 28 2015 at 03:26pm PDT

Why does Paul have so much action?

bobdevine   •   Sat Mar 28 2015 at 03:32pm PDT

The rumors for the last week are:
Rand Paul will announce April 7th
Marco Rubio will announce April 13th

east1999   •   Tue Mar 24 2015 at 02:00pm PDT

I’m not sure why this market is closed. None of the above have launched their candidacy. Ted Cruz isn’t on this list. Jeb Bush has formed an exploratory committee. If for some reason he doesn’t go through, we’re back to square one, and you know, someone can announce a run before he formally does (like Cruz, who formed an exploratory committee like a week ago).

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Tue Mar 24 2015 at 02:41pm PDT

You’re right, I inadvertently closed it. The wording of the market, as you point out, is “Which of THESE”, not “Which Republican” so technically this hasn’t resolved yet…

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Mar 23 2015 at 07:41am PDT

Ted Cruz announced today: https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/579857596191899648. The answer is none of the above.

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Mon Mar 23 2015 at 07:48am PDT

There was no “none of the above” stock in this one, unfortunately. Also looks like Ted Cruz’s site was either hacked or he doesn’t own this URL: http://www.tedcruz.com/

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Mar 24 2015 at 12:24pm PDT

So how does this market pay out?

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Tue Mar 24 2015 at 02:40pm PDT

I actually just went ahead and opened this back up. The wording of the market, as the creator pointed out, was “Which of THESE”, not “Which Republican” so technically this hasn’t resolved yet…

towstore   •   Thu Apr 04 2013 at 01:39pm PDT

I wouldn’t venture a guess except to suggest Christie’s gubernatorial reelection effort after the Hurricane removes him as a possibility. His willingness to crawl up to the trough was disgusting.

wstritt   •   Mon Sep 03 2012 at 02:53pm PDT

Ummm, what happens if Romney wins in 2012 and none of the above chooses to run against him in 2016? Or none of them chose to run irrespective of what happens this year?

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Mon Sep 03 2012 at 02:55pm PDT

That’s what I said. :) But I chose to publish it anyway as these could all just cash out at 0 if Romney wins or wins but doesn’t only choose to serve one term. An “other” stock might be nice though too.

wstritt   •   Mon Sep 03 2012 at 03:50pm PDT

Yeah, you pressed the comment button before I did. :)

Can you really cash out all stocks in a single payout multiple choice market at 0? I never tried but I thought that wasn’t possible.

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Mon Sep 03 2012 at 03:53pm PDT

Yep, as far as I know. :) You just cash them all out at 0.

east1999   •   Mon Sep 03 2012 at 03:39pm PDT

I just added an option for “None of the above”, but then I feared the question could be spoiled by a lower-level official with a longshot run, so I changed it to “Mitt Romney”. Of course, should Pres. Romney be waiting for the proper moment to announce his re-election, there could always be a right-wing movement to unseat him, and so the question could remain quite open.

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Mon Sep 03 2012 at 02:48pm PDT

This question seems to assume Barack Obama will win this year and that Mitt Romney therefore won’t be the nominee in 2016 (or wins this year and then decides to only serve one term) so I assume if MR wins, conceivably these could all cash out at 0.

historical trend

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