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What percentage of the popular vote will the third-placed US Presidential election candidate receive?




Less than 0.1%


Predicted: 3.56%

Actual: 0.00%

0.1% to 0.2%


Predicted: 5.66%

Actual: 0.00%

0.2% to 0.4%


Predicted: 37.05%

Actual: 0.00%

0.4% to 0.6%


Predicted: 41.77%

Actual: 0.00%

0.6% to 0.8%


Predicted: 6.19%

Actual: 0.00%

0.8% to 1%


Predicted: 2.34%

Actual: 100.00%

1% to 2%


Predicted: 2.25%

Actual: 0.00%

2% to 4%


Predicted: 0.65%

Actual: 0.00%

4% or more


Predicted: 0.50%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2012 @ 04:02pm PST

Predictions Made


Most by: ChloeBurns (11 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

GoldenSunKing   •   Sun Dec 02 2012 at 07:50pm PST

Hey, how about closing this one.

wstritt   •   Sun Dec 02 2012 at 08:04pm PST

Should be able to close out now. Wikipedia says .99%,_2012#Results

wstritt   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 08:29pm PST

Any answer on this one?

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 08:39pm PST

It’s surprisingly hard to find national totals that include third-party candidates. But according to Google, Gary Johnson has 0.9 percent, although I don’t know how complete the numbers are. Nobody else was close.

wstritt   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 08:56pm PST

For most of the media, nothing else matters than Democrats and Republicans which, as a practical matter, really is all that mattered this year. When was the last time it did? Perot in 1992 with 19% probably did. Maybe Nader with 2.7. % in 2000 (1.6% in FL) siphoned enough votes from Gore to tip the election to Bush?

Wikipedia is showing Johnson at .97%

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 09:59pm PST

That’s probably too close for settling the market.

east1999   •   Sun Nov 11 2012 at 10:24am PST

Yup. OurCampaigns says it’s 0.98%, while Google Results now points to 1%. We’ll have to wait some more.

historical trend

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