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How many hurricanes will the 2007 Atlantic season spawn?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

10

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

11

(closed)

Predicted: 0.30%

Actual: 0.00%

12

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

13

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

14

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

15

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

6

(closed)

Predicted: 98.05%

Actual: 100.00%

7

(closed)

Predicted: 0.55%

Actual: 0.00%

8

(closed)

Predicted: 0.09%

Actual: 0.00%

9

(closed)

Predicted: 0.30%

Actual: 0.00%

less than 6

(closed)

Predicted: 0.16%

Actual: 0.00%

more than 15

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2007 @ 03:51pm PST

topic

Science

Predictions Made

256

Most by: wstritt (71 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

wstritt   •   Sun Dec 02 2007 at 08:34am PST

Tropical Storm Karen upgraded to Hurricane Karen. Looks like 6 unless they make more changes… NHC 2007 hurricane season report is 3rd link.

http://www.reuters.com/article/featuredCrisis/idUSN30336678

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL122007_Karen.pdf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/tws/MIATWSAT_nov.shtml

ajtaylor   •   Wed Nov 07 2007 at 07:09am PST

With nearly a month left in the season (and two months until the market closes), we’re already at 5 hurricanes. The last hurricane, Hurricane Noel, formed in the last week. It seems odd (at least to this market participant) that the market is currently pricing at nearly 90% that there won’t be another hurricane this year.

Hmmm….

cygnusx3   •   Tue May 29 2007 at 04:42pm PDT

The average is 5.9 hurricanes per season. Somehow, Zakarria, a lot of people are going to know a lot more about hurricanes after the current season – some because of Inkling and some others…

JamesW   •   Tue May 29 2007 at 07:52am PDT

Yes, they name tropical storms, however for this market I’m only counting storms that become named hurricanes.

zakarria   •   Fri Jun 01 2007 at 05:41pm PDT

Thanks!

zakarria   •   Sat May 26 2007 at 05:04pm PDT

Just to be perfectly clear…

They name “tropical storms”, too, right? Will you only be counting things clearly defined as “hurricanes” or will tropical storms count?

I don’t really know anything about the topic, so I might be missing something obvious, but I figure that goes for a lot of inklingers. :-P

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

10

11

12

13

14

15

6

7

8

9

less than 6

more than 15