Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

How many states will Inklingistas predict incorrectly in the 2012 U.S. presidential race?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

0. Zero

(closed)

Predicted: 15.22%

Actual: 100.00%

1. One

(closed)

Predicted: 38.94%

Actual: 0.00%

2. Two

(closed)

Predicted: 24.38%

Actual: 0.00%

3. Three

(closed)

Predicted: 10.61%

Actual: 0.00%

4. Four

(closed)

Predicted: 5.18%

Actual: 0.00%

5. Five

(closed)

Predicted: 3.24%

Actual: 0.00%

6. Six

(closed)

Predicted: 1.60%

Actual: 0.00%

7. Seven or more

(closed)

Predicted: 0.80%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 06, 2012 @ 04:00pm PST

Predictions Made

58

Most by: job (15 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

Tom501   •   Wed Nov 07 2012 at 08:23am PST

Why was zero cashed out as wrong? With only Florida up in the air the market was correct in picking every other state.

ecotax   •   Mon Nov 05 2012 at 01:56pm PST

Why, zero of course! Let’s have a little bit of faith in ourselves.

job   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 06:31am PST

Only one or two mistakes would be a great outcome, but think that “3 or more” is more likely. Zero is very unlkely!

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 05:37am PST

If we’re that correct, Obama will win 332-206 in the Electoral College (give or take one or two for Maine and Nebraska). I don’t think Obama will win by that much, but I’ve been wrong before.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader