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How many states will Inklingistas predict incorrectly in the 2012 U.S. presidential race?




0. Zero


Predicted: 15.22%

Actual: 100.00%

1. One


Predicted: 38.94%

Actual: 0.00%

2. Two


Predicted: 24.38%

Actual: 0.00%

3. Three


Predicted: 10.61%

Actual: 0.00%

4. Four


Predicted: 5.18%

Actual: 0.00%

5. Five


Predicted: 3.24%

Actual: 0.00%

6. Six


Predicted: 1.60%

Actual: 0.00%

7. Seven or more


Predicted: 0.80%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 06, 2012 @ 04:00pm PST

Predictions Made


Most by: job (15 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

Tom501   •   Wed Nov 07 2012 at 08:23am PST

Why was zero cashed out as wrong? With only Florida up in the air the market was correct in picking every other state.

ecotax   •   Mon Nov 05 2012 at 01:56pm PST

Why, zero of course! Let’s have a little bit of faith in ourselves.

job   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 06:31am PST

Only one or two mistakes would be a great outcome, but think that “3 or more” is more likely. Zero is very unlkely!

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 05:37am PST

If we’re that correct, Obama will win 332-206 in the Electoral College (give or take one or two for Maine and Nebraska). I don’t think Obama will win by that much, but I’ve been wrong before.

historical trend

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