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Is Ohio on Romney's path to victory in the 2012 Presidential Election?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

R loses OH, loses presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 91.31%

Actual: 100.00%

R loses OH, wins presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 1.14%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins OH, loses presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 3.63%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins OH, wins presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 3.92%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 06, 2012 @ 08:00pm PST

Predictions Made

50

Most by: jahm (14 predictions)

Discussion

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jahm   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 09:02am PST

A Romney win in Ohio would put his odds of winning the presidency at parity with Obama. According to current prices, the conditional probability of a Romney presidency is 47.0% if he wins Ohio and 0.9% if he loses this state.

jahm   •   Sun Nov 04 2012 at 04:56pm PST

Under current prices, if Romney loses OH, his probability of winning the presidency is 0.87% = 0.83/(0.83 + 94.11). But if Romney wins OH, his probability of winning the presidency is 43.65% = 2.20/(2.20 + 2.84).

This sort of conditional probability calculation was my motivation for creating the market. Thanks for playing.

jahm   •   Sun Nov 04 2012 at 03:16pm PST

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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