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Is Virginia on Romney's path to victory in the 2012 Presidential Election?




R loses VA, loses presidency


Predicted: 31.18%

Actual: 100.00%

R loses VA, wins presidency


Predicted: 0.56%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins VA, loses presidency


Predicted: 63.81%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins VA, wins presidency


Predicted: 4.44%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 06, 2012 @ 07:00pm PST

Predictions Made


Most by: jahm (31 predictions)


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jahm   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 09:20am PST

This is a must-win state for Romney. According to current prices, the conditional probability of a Romney presidency is 26.2% if he wins Virginia and 0.3% if he loses this state.

jahm   •   Sun Nov 04 2012 at 05:03pm PST

Under current prices, if R loses in VA, he wins the presidency with 1.02% = 0.75/(0.75 + 72.83) probability. But if he wins VA, he wins the presidency with 9.69% = 2.56/(2.56 + 23.85) probability. Romney cannot afford to lose VA, but it is not enough to tilt the odds in his favor.

jahm   •   Sun Nov 04 2012 at 03:15pm PST

mvguy   •   Sun Nov 04 2012 at 04:22pm PST

It’s also a great opportunity if you think Romney is going to win (I don’t). Right now, this market suggests he has a 2.5% chance — that’s awfully low.

jahm   •   Sun Nov 04 2012 at 05:39pm PST

Yep, I’ve been using that to cover my long Obama bets. Moreover, closing that arb should improve the accuracy of this market.

historical trend

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