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Is Florida on Romney's path to victory in the 2012 Presidential Election?




R loses FL, loses presidency


Predicted: 72.21%

Actual: 100.00%

R loses FL, wins presidency


Predicted: 0.20%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins FL, loses presidency


Predicted: 21.83%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins FL, wins presidency


Predicted: 5.76%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 06, 2012 @ 07:00pm PST

Predictions Made


Most by: jahm (21 predictions)


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EdG1975   •   Sat Nov 10 2012 at 02:21pm PST

This can be cashed out. Romney lost Florida.

jahm   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 08:57am PST

This market has really flipped around and fundamentally shifted the probability of a Romney win in Florida. It was over 70% until late last night. Now this market puts it at 27.9%.

This is a must-win state for Romney. According to current prices in this market, the conditional probability of a Romney presidency is 11.8% if he wins Florida but only 0.1% if he loses this state.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).