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In the 2012 U.S. presidential election, when will CNN declare that a candidate has received at least 270 electoral votes?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

0. Before 9 p.m. EST (6 p.m. PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.84%

Actual: 0.00%

1. 9-9:59 p.m. EST (6-6:59 p.m. PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.34%

Actual: 0.00%

2. 10-10:59 p.m. EST (7-7:59 p.m. PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.63%

Actual: 0.00%

3. 11-11:29 p.m. EST (8-8:29 p.m. PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 36.52%

Actual: 100.00%

4. 11:30-11:59 p.m. EST (8:30-8:59 PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 28.50%

Actual: 0.00%

5. Midnight-12:59 a.m. EST (9-9:59 PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 15.45%

Actual: 0.00%

6. 1-1:59 a.m. EST (10-10:59 p.m. PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 7.58%

Actual: 0.00%

7. 2-6:59 a.m. EST (11 p.m.-3:59 a.m.)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.56%

Actual: 0.00%

8. 7-11:59 a.m. EST (4-8:59 a.m. PST)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.97%

Actual: 0.00%

9. Noon EST (9 a.m. PST), later or never

(closed)

Predicted: 1.33%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 07, 2012 @ 08:00am PST

Predictions Made

30

Most by: leto2 (8 predictions)

Discussion

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mvguy   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 06:29pm PST

My apologies for cashing out option 0 prematurely. I got mixed up with the time zones. I’ll be more careful as the night goes on.

mvguy   •   Sun Nov 04 2012 at 08:49pm PST

I don’t know about CNN specifically, but for comparison purposes in 2008 the networks in general declared Obama the winner as soon as the polls closed at 11 p.m. EST in California. But in 2004, Bush had 269 electoral votes as of the time the polls closed in Alaska at 1 a.m. EST, and his total was stuck there for hours due to close tallies in several states. Kerry finally conceded the race at 11 a.m. EST Wednesday when it became clear that Nevada was in the Bush column.

By the way, I based the initial values in this market on the fact that Inklingistas are generally giving Obama about 90% odds or better of winning. I give his odds far lower, and I’d predict we won’t have a declared winner until around midnight my (Mountain) time.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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