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Judgment time

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Is Colorado on Romney's path to victory in the 2012 Presidential Election?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

R loses CO, loses presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 58.77%

Actual: 100.00%

R loses CO, wins presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 1.88%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins CO, loses presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 36.07%

Actual: 0.00%

R wins CO, wins presidency

(closed)

Predicted: 3.28%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 06, 2012 @ 07:00pm PST

Predictions Made

42

Most by: jahm (19 predictions)

Discussion

jahm   •   Tue Nov 06 2012 at 09:08am PST

According to current prices, the conditional probability of a Romney presidency is 13.3% if he wins Colorado and 2.0% if he loses this state.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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