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Judgment time

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Which of the Tea Party Ten will fall?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Allen West (FL-18)

(closed)

Predicted: 19.10%

Actual: 100.00%

Chip Cravaack (MN-8)

(closed)

Predicted: 62.34%

Actual: 100.00%

Dan Lungren (CA-7)

(closed)

Predicted: 17.31%

Actual: 100.00%

Frank Guinta (NH-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 26.82%

Actual: 100.00%

Jim Renacci (OH-16)

(closed)

Predicted: 13.43%

Actual: 0.00%

Joe Walsh (IL-8)

(closed)

Predicted: 88.46%

Actual: 100.00%

Michelle Bachmann (MN-6)

(closed)

Predicted: 11.68%

Actual: 0.00%

Mike Coffman (CO-6)

(closed)

Predicted: 18.79%

Actual: 0.00%

Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

(closed)

Predicted: 13.43%

Actual: 0.00%

Sean Duffy (WI-7)

(closed)

Predicted: 13.43%

Actual: 0.00%

Steve King (IO-4)

(closed)

Predicted: 20.36%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 06, 2012 @ 12:00pm PST

Predictions Made

59

Most by: job (14 predictions)

Discussion

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MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 21 2012 at 04:02am PST

Betting against the Tea Party was a profitable business; this market alone accounted for about 15% of the 1 million inkles I made in betting on all the election markets.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Nov 17 2012 at 10:19am PST

The Palm Beach Post reports a canvassing board decided to recount all 37,379 ballots from early voting in the tight congressional race between Rep. Allen West (R-FL) and Patrick Murphy (D) after elections officials revealed that 306 ballots had gone uncounted.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/17/yet_another_election_screw_up_in_florida.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Nov 07 2012 at 04:58am PST

Allen West trails by less than 3,000 votes with 100% counted.
Chip Cravaack loses with 46% of the vote.
Dan Lungren trails by less than 200 votes with 100% counted.
Frank Guinta loses with 46% of the vote.
Joe Walsh loses with 45% of the vote.
Michelle Bachmann wins with 51%.
Mike Coffman wins with 50% of the vote, 71% reporting.
Mike Fitzpatrick wins with 57%.
Sean Duffy wins with 56%.
Steve King wins with 53%.

east1999   •   Thu Nov 08 2012 at 03:03am PST

We’ll be waiting on the Lungren and West tallies! If you’ve got any news, please share them here.

Rationales

"Sure wish I had my initial market position on this one...."

chelseaboys bought Joe Walsh (IL-8) at 76.07%
November 05, 2012 @ 02:04pm PST

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Allen West (FL-18)

Chip Cravaack (MN-8)

Dan Lungren (CA-7)

Frank Guinta (NH-1)

Jim Renacci (OH-16)

Joe Walsh (IL-8)

Michelle Bachmann (MN-6)

Mike Coffman (CO-6)

Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

Sean Duffy (WI-7)

Steve King (IO-4)