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Will the US Congress resolve the "fiscal cliff" prior to Jan. 1, 2013?

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PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 1.50%

Actual: 0.00%

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Question ends

December 31, 2012 @ 09:00pm PST

Predictions Made

909

Most by: job (203 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Tue Jan 01 2013 at 12:24pm PST

I have sent jahm a messsage to cash out on his market "Will the US Congress resolve the “fiscal cliff” prior to Jan. 1, 2013?" and " Will Susan Rice’s Sectretary of State confirmation hearings be filibustered?" as well as to admin.

Tom501   •   Tue Jan 01 2013 at 04:10pm PST

He hasn’t been active for about a month.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Jan 01 2013 at 04:22pm PST

I saw that. Will go next to admin.

RTSmith   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 09:04pm PST

No it is.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 09:01pm PST

It is 00:01 EST and still no vote.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 06:58pm PST

No Vote = No Resolution it would seem.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 02:13pm PST

It is now being reported that the House will NOT be voting on ant FISCAL CLIFF bill tonight.

RTSmith   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 05:24pm PST

Hope the report is accurate. Papering over the fundamental differences among the parties (President: stubborn; Senate—Reid vindictive) would be a huge mistake for the country’s future. Suspect the economic impact of the cliff will be minor—tax increases not anticipated permanent, spending sequestration probably a better than letting spending to increase out of control.

But, this is a prediction market. We will find whether the republican leaders have courage or “beltway fever”. Hard to trade against the latter

SneakyPete   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 12:40pm PST

It looks like we will be seeing both increased taxes and spending taking place. Have not seen any spending cuts being put on the table.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 12:40pm PST

It looks like we will be seeing both increased taxes and spending taking place. Have not seen any spending cuts being put on the table.

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 11:25am PST

@ Michael: What do you think of the emerging deal? I hate every bit of it in detail but am forced to support it on the principle that compromise is needed. Your thoughts?

wstritt   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 12:56pm PST

I’m not Michael but would agree. Something needs to get done but deal doesn’t really deal with the fundamental issue of too little revenue and too much spending, just kicks the can down the road….again. Someday, some one will have to deal with that minor problem recognizing that there is neither a revenue only or spending only solution.

Technically, I suppose, there is a spending only solution though no one would like what that looked like – not even Grover Norquist. May even be a revenue only solution though that is rather doubtful short of confiscation of Warren Buffet’s & Bill Gates’ (and a handful of others) assets.

Actually, I’m liking confiscating Buffet’s assets. Zuckerberg’s too. Maybe a few others – Bill Clinton, Robert Rubin, Jon Corzine, Jamie Dimon, the Kennedy’s as long as we can peel it out of the various trusts and foundations they established to avoid all of this income and estate tax nonsense.

RTSmith   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 05:20pm PST

Like the attitude. If they believe those of us creating businesses and improving society are “villains”, then might as go after your list.

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 07:37am PST

Can we reach consensus on what elements need to be included for this to be resolved? I propose the bare minimum fix must include the following:

YES [INCLUDES]
Tax rate & threshold
AMT patch
Doc fix
Defense & medicaid sequester

NO [MAY INCLUDE BUT DOES NOT HAVE TO]
Estate tax rate & threshold
Payroll tax cut
Unemployment extension
Dependent child & college tax credits
Farm bill, i.e., dairy cliff

Did I miss anything?

RTSmith   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 05:18pm PST

Great question:

I raised this question weeks ago. The issue is what do you mean by “resolve”. If you go back to the interchange, you would conclude that market organizer means “anything” that happens is a resolution.

Based on that interchange, I “cashed out” my short position—believing that there won’t be a resolution.

Wished I had stayed in my position. If nothing passes, then there can’t be a resolution.

There are better questions traded, such as specific questions about tax rate legislation and sequestration.

Good luck

Happy New Year

Tom501   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 12:43pm PST

I think a lot of what you are including could be rolled into comprehensive tax reform rather than being included in the fix itself. I think some agreement to set real reform goals will be in the fix but that most of the details will be left out until later.

My bet is they get the legislation in place but don’t vote on it until tomorrow so the tax increases go into effect but the majority of them are then reduced back to current levels so the Republicans can claim that they didn’t vote on an increase only a reduction.

Watching DC work is fascinating if you don’t mind the gamesmanship.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 06:37pm PST

you can follow Senate and House votes at http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes

SneakyPete   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 04:57pm PST

Am I safe to assume that if nothing is passsed by 23:59 EST, 31 January 2012, no would be the answer?

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 04:32pm PST

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/30/16254655-no-fiscal-deal-sunday-senate-to-return-for-dramatic-new-years-eve?ocid=twitter

“Significant distance remains between the two sides and negotiations continue, although the clock continues to tick. Even a simple deal appears far from certain.”

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 03:33pm PST

Tweet just seen: “Senate staffers have been told they will be able to go home within the hour; no votes expected tonight.”

ChloeBurns   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 11:08am PST

GOP is insisting on chained CPI for any tax revenue. I offer you a penny and you ask for the house. We are already over the cliff and just don’t know it yet.

job   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 06:45am PST

WASHINGTON | Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:17am EST
Republican Senator: chances for ‘fiscal cliff’ deal ‘exceedingly good’
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/30/usa-fiscal-graham-idUSL1E8NU11A20121230

job   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 04:58am PST

AFP Sunday, Dec 30, 2012

As clock ticks, US lawmakers seek fiscal cliff solution

According to The Washington Post, a deal – a “stripped-down” version of earlier proposals dealing mainly with taxes – is within reach.
http://news.asiaone.com/A1Business/News/Story/A1Story20121230-392402.html

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 05:37am PST

Well, Job, hope springs eternal, I see. But would a “stripped-down” version satisfy this market? I don’t think so. In any case the odds are long against passing anything at all at this late date.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/12/30/fiscal-cliff-deadline-sunday-3-p-m.html

job   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 06:39am PST

In november was already concluded that:
" anything that prevents the automatic spending cut and tax increases from going into effect on Jan. 1, 2013"
would satisfy this market.
So if a “stripped-down” version is accepted it’s likely that this will satisfy this market!

ChloeBurns   •   Fri Dec 28 2012 at 03:08pm PST

I do not understand Speaker Boehner. In the same sound bite he claims the Senate must go first, he complains the bill that already passed the Senate has a “blue slip problem.” A blue slip problem refers to the fact that all spending bills must originate in the House. So which is it, sir?

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 09:20am PST

A usual, learn something new everyday on the site. Nevr have heard the term “Blue Slip Problem” Thanks

wstritt   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 09:02am PST

I would imagine he is referring to the fact that the House has already passed at least two bills to address the situation which the Senate has failed to address. His suggestion being that if the Senate doesn’t like them, they should amend them and send them back to the House for consideration as amended. Unlike the independent Senate bill that has a blue slip problem, amending already passed House legislation would not have the “blue slip” problem.

Awkwardly phrased, to be sure, since the House has already “gone first”, but not necessarily inconsistent.

wstritt   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 09:09am PST

I would add that in theory the House could introduce identical legislation to the Senate bill and send it back to the Senate for their action avoiding the “blue slip” issue, however Boehner probably has concluded that the Senate legislation as drafted would not pass the House particularly given his inability to get the $1MM and above tax hike through the House (given 0 Democratic support or enough Republicans for even going with that concession).

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 09:08am PST

Good comment. I believe that hit the “Nail on The Head”. Whatever the Senate does must go back to the House to be “Re-worked” and then back to the Senate. It is a very time consuming process.

SneakyPete   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 01:14pm PST

House Republicans Say Senate Must Go First.

House Republican leaders said the U.S. Senate needs to act first on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff, Politico reports, “hinting they would not bring the House back into session until Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) moves something through his chamber.”

Washington Post: “The move comes just days after these same GOP leaders failed to secure the Republican votes for Boehner’s ‘Plan B’, which would have extended the expiring tax cuts on all income up to $1 million and modified the pending across-the-board cuts to agency budgets by sparing the Pentagon. The statement did not include any guidance as to what measures the House could accept and did not indicate when Boehner would call the House back into session.”

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/12/26/house_republicans_say_senate_must_go_first.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 04:05pm PST

Yeah, there was a tweet characterizing the negotiations as being:

“You go first!”
“No, YOU go first!”
“No, YOU GO FIRST!”

I think that about sums it up.

SneakyPete   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 04:09pm PST

Would be nice to see , for once it seems, that the Senate will be acting upon a bill sent them from the House.

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 11:52am PST

SneakyPete   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 12:58pm PST

Looks like the pressure is going to be on the Senate to pass the House bill or ?

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 11:41am PST

I saw a tweet that the House has recessed until Monday.

Also, this: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/12/harry-reid-headed-over-fiscal-cliff/60362/

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 10:04am PST

The consensus on the Hill, Politico reports, is that a fiscal cliff deal by New Year’s Eve is “virtually impossible”

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-virtually-impossible-harry-reid-mitch-mcconnell

SneakyPete   •   Wed Dec 26 2012 at 10:35am PST

Democrats Can’t Avoid Blame.

For all of the country’s justified concern about the inability of the Republicans to make a deal, the fact remains that the Democratic-controlled Senate is even more of an obstacle to an accord. For Majority Leader Harry Reid and his party to do something to avoid the fiscal cliff, he will have to do something that he has failed to do in the last three years: pass a budget plan of any kind. The Democrats have sat back and enjoyed the brickbats thrown at the GOP for their dysfunctional behavior, but have done nothing themselves to make a deal other than to play the role of cheerleaders for the White House’s class warfare rhetoric. With only days left for action to avoid the automatic enactment of measures that could potentially devastate an already weak economy, it’s time to for Reid and his caucus to put forward a bill that could actually pass. If not, their reliance on public opinion only blaming Republicans for the impending debacle may ultimately wind up a colossal misjudgment.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/12/26/democrats_can039t_avoid_blame_298547.html

Interesting article…..

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Dec 26 2012 at 06:46am PST

I spent Christmas with my not-quite-four-year-old niece. This year she learned that if you give your cousin the red lego he needs for his robot, he will give you the green lego you need for your tree. If only Congress were as smart as an almost four year old.

mvguy   •   Wed Dec 26 2012 at 10:37am PST

Agreed. The whole things seems absurd, and there’s plenty of blame to go around for both sides.

SneakyPete   •   Wed Dec 26 2012 at 10:00am PST

I would not count on it. Battle till the end.

job   •   Wed Dec 26 2012 at 12:20am PST

Obama will return Wednesday to D.C. to tackle fiscal cliff.
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/25/politics/fiscal-cliff/index.html

ecotax   •   Wed Dec 26 2012 at 03:28am PST

The current price of around 20% seems right though, because they’ll be spending 80% of their time and energy blaming the other party for the imminent failure, and 20% on actually trying to solve the problem.

zakarria   •   Sat Dec 22 2012 at 07:44am PST

Dudes. The situation is the same as it’s been since the election. Zero of the Republicans are willing to be perceived to be voting for a “tax increase”, to the extent that they’d rather let one happen “by default” and THEN vote to “lower” taxes again on some folks, even if they end up getting a deal that’s worse for them than what they could get now.

job   •   Sat Dec 22 2012 at 12:05am PST

I’ve asked leaders of Congress to work towards a package that prevents a tax hike on middle-class Americans, protects unemployment insurance for 2 million Americans, and lays the groundwork for further work on both growth and deficit reduction. That’s an achievable goal that can get done in 10 days.

Once this legislation is agreed to, I expect Democrats and Republicans to get back to Washington and have it pass both chambers, and I will immediately sign that legislation into law before January 1st of next year.

OBAMA: It’s that simple.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/president-obamas-remarks-on-the-fiscal-cliff—delivered-dec-21-2012-transcript/2012/12/21/2411fcc4-4bb6-11e2-a6a6-aabac85e8036_story.html

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 22 2012 at 05:20am PST

Nothing in Washington is “simple” — in the end, this lame-duck Congress will just kick the can down the road and end up doing nothing.

As I’ve said all along, it’s a made-up crisis. The new Congress will repair the silliest parts of the “sequestration” and then I hope they will get down to solving real problems, not imaginary ones.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-kelton-fiscal-cliff-economy-20121221,0,2129176.story

mvguy   •   Fri Dec 21 2012 at 10:16am PST

If they can resolve things now, it will be because the House Democrats can find a few dozen moderate Republicans to help them push something through. I wish them luck.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Dec 21 2012 at 11:46am PST

I would not hold my breath on anything passing anytime soon.

job   •   Thu Dec 20 2012 at 10:16am PST

With almost 6,000 shares I will lower the price to max 45.Enough????

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Dec 21 2012 at 10:35am PST

I don’t understand your comment. This stock is selling at 15 at the moment. What do 6,000 shares and 45 have to do with anything?

Rationales

"Lets hope it gets passed prior to 23:59?"

SneakyPete bought at 1.26%
December 31, 2012 @ 01:10pm PST

"It ain't going to be pretty, but I still think they'll hobble together a stopgap."

mvguy bought at 12.35%
December 30, 2012 @ 04:18pm PST

"beacuse of test"

a#hX2zra bought at 15.24%
December 28, 2012 @ 04:25am PST

"They are US politicians"

Kd$se2ah sold at 21.15%
December 27, 2012 @ 10:02am PST

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