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How much more or less than 665 will Google (GOOG) close at the Nasdaq on the last day of 2012?

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PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

number of points above 665

(closed)

Predicted: 25.44

Actual: 42.38

number of points below 665

(closed)

Predicted: 0.69

Actual: 0.00

  • completed

Question ends

December 30, 2012 @ 09:10pm PST

Predictions Made

1171

Most by: job (627 predictions)

Discussion

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ChloeBurns   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 01:03pm PST

i have an unintentional and potentially extremely lucrative calendar spread – clock spread actually :-) – developing here. i am long GOOG here as a hedge against my big short on resolution of the fiscal cliff and Fitch downgrade. If the deal falls apart between 4P and midnight, both sides of this bet will pay off.

leto2   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 01:02pm PST

709.37 Close = +44.37
Nice little rally in the final minutes.

job   •   Tue Jan 01 2013 at 02:08am PST

Final close is 707.38
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGOOG&ei=1mzhUODBM-OZwQPGhAE

leto2   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 07:49am PST

I expect this will be a volatile day, but if GOOG holds where it is right now, there’s going to be a huge swing in profits/losses for everyone. Right now it’s up about 39 from 665.

leto2   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 07:51am PST

BTW, I lost about 75K in the last few days which was over 13% of my meager balance. I’m hoping it holds so I get it back!

job   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 08:14am PST

so far it looks good and you can jump in the top50!

leto2   •   Mon Dec 31 2012 at 08:22am PST

I’ve been at 49 for a few weeks. I’m more worried about falling back out.

chelseaboys   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 02:08pm PST

Here I am on vacation and I lose a million F’ing Inkles in a day!

job   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 02:58pm PST

CB, this is a high risk market. The profit I made in trading (around 6 million)is disappearing as snow in the sun! But that’s not too bad, I gained so much that I can play well with some less Inkles. It’s just a game and you can’t win a lot without taking risks. And there is still a chance the fiscal cliff is solved!

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 02:11pm PST

Happy New Year, CB!

You haven’t really lost it yet, because the markets are still hours away from opening, but it sure don’t look pretty.

ChloeBurns   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 12:12pm PST

@ Michael: this is the first time that i can remember an event this momentous occurred with every market around the globe closed. with no place to lay off risk, the longs are feeling the pain today!

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 12:34pm PST

You’re young! One example, the crisis that brought down Long Term Capital. If the Fed hadn’t stepped in, they might have brought down the world’s financial system. With a bunch of bright Nobel laureates on staff, they bought Russian bonds for high yield, and had the perfect hedge with puts on the ruble. Trouble was, they bought them from a Russian bank, and when it went out of business they were stuck with a bunch of worthless paper when the Russian bond market collapsed. The Crash of ’87 came close to disaster — I was working for Morgan Stanley in NY at the time — I remember it well…

ChloeBurns   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 12:40pm PST

I was just thinking about Black Monday. Michael Lewis described it as sitting on the trading floor watching helplessly as the market died. That is what I am feeling right now.

Are you suggesting we are in for a 22% one day drop?

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 01:03pm PST

No, not at all! This is a made-up crisis, not a real one, and it can be patched up after the New Year. But of course, given how childish the players have behaved so far, the market may not give them the benefit of the doubt. Markets are famous for overreacting. The madness of crowds and all that.

Yes, I knew all those guys at Solomon Brothers that Lewis wrote about. I never played Liars Poker with them, but I did play a game of Monopoly with one of them once, believe it or not. He was ruthless!

ChloeBurns   •   Sun Dec 30 2012 at 01:08pm PST

I answered a call from Meriwether once. I still remember it 12 years later.

job   •   Mon Dec 24 2012 at 08:18am PST

Large differences between gains and losses!
1 ChloeBurns $161,590.00
2 leto2 $30,832.40
3 sbalen $29,547.00
4 dudi $3,652.50
5 samlepirat $0.00
6 Ishmael $-82.40
7 bobdevine $-82.50
8 Politico $-155.10
9 AxmxZ $-8,690.00
10 ecotax $-10,400.00
11 Best4Lowell $-11,800.00
12 chelseaboys $-40,310.00
13 wstritt $-69,000.00
14 London Bridge $-72,980.00
15 MFWinAlford $-242,000.00
16 Best Record $-344,398.75
17 job $-13,998,971.90

job   •   Thu Dec 06 2012 at 02:12am PST

The ranking so far.
1 leto2 $20,335.80
2 wstritt $9,000.00
3 dudi $877.50
4 samlepira $0.00
5 Ishmael $0.00
6 Politico $-107.60
7 AxmxZ $-515.00
8 ecotax $-1,150.00
9 Best4Lowel $-11,280.00
10 London Bridge $-25,460.00
11 MFWinAlford $-113,500.00
12 chelseaboys $-141,060.00
13 Best Record $-171,274.20
14 job $-6,450,366.25
Interesting weeks are coming. If google is ending this year at 650 my loss will be 14 million, if it is 710 I will win around 14 million!

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Dec 06 2012 at 03:56am PST

Well, that assumes you don’t trade anymore! Ha!

I don’t know how accurate your figure here is, but mine is way off. I have been keeping track of each trade I do, and so far, I have a profit of 1,528,330 inkles. I am currently short 1,500 shares, but it the stock price rises from here, I will go long.

This stock (like AAPL) has been extremely volatile, and has been as high as 774 only a couple of months ago, so it could easily go to 710. Or 650!

Ishmael17   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 02:34pm PST

This is actually a pretty awesome market concept, both in terms of scale and design.

job   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 03:00pm PST

What is the problem???

Ishmael17   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 10:40pm PST

Problem? No problem—I like it! It’s a market that can give an “expected” stock price of both above and below 665, but you can’t easily arbitrage between the two options unless you know the volatility of the Google stock.

Plus, we multimillionaires always enjoy big markets :)

job   •   Sat Dec 01 2012 at 01:47am PST

Sorry, I mixed up awesom with awful, so I thought you had problems with this market>

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 02:30pm PST

Job, congratulations on becoming #3 (again!). I suspect this market had a lot to do with that, but you’ve also worked hard for a long time to build up your balance. Good job, so to speak! :)

job   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 02:55pm PST

Thanks. Strange enough my dashboard is saying I have I loss of 68K in this market, but I guess I made around 1 Millon so far in this question. I invested around 7 Milion in this question and around 17 Million in the Stockmarket Questions ending at the end of this year. Recent increases in the stockmarkets contributed well to my rising account.

job   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 08:20am PST

Some information about chances and risks……
If……..Google reaches his "October 5, 2012 Value of 767 dollar, Inkling value will rise from 1200 to 5100 Inkles
If …….Google will go down again to a value of 668 dollar, Inkling Value wil fall from 1200 to 150 inkles per share.
So be aware this is a high risk market, where you can win a lot, but also loose all your invested Inkles.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 09:28am PST

Just to clarify, if it were to stay where it is ~20 points above your beginning number, then your second stock will close at 0, correct?

job   •   Thu Nov 29 2012 at 09:44am PST

Correct!

historical trend

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number of points above 665

number of points below 665