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In 2016, the U.S. Presidential Election will be won by a candidate from which political party?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Republican

(closed)

39.91%

Democratic

(closed)

58.37%

Neither Democratic nor Republican

(closed)

1.71%

  • expired

Question ends

October 24, 2016 @ 08:55pm PDT

Predictions Made

400

Most by: K1050 (63 predictions)

Discussion

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Know_well   •   Thu May 19 2016 at 03:42pm PDT

Democratic party more likely

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 09:54am PST

BeteNoire   •   Sat Nov 08 2014 at 08:06am PST

I’m curious about others thoughts. These probabilities seem unbalanced given the results of the mid term elections particularly when you look at the results of the governors races, the number of governors who are republican, the importance of state offices in terms of organizing, and the fact that most successful presidential candidates come from the governors office.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Sep 12 2015 at 05:22pm PDT

You make some interesting points o consider andevluate. Thanks

mvguy   •   Sat Nov 08 2014 at 01:26pm PST

While I think it’s likely a Democrat will be elected president in 2016, I wouldn’t give the Dems as high of odds as the market does. I’d guess that the low expectations for Republicans center on the fact that many of its most well-known potential candidates are close to unelectable, while Hillary Clinton is seen as quite electable. I can easily imagine a scenario where Clinton wins the prize, but no so for folks such as Santorum, Cruz or Huckabee.

BeteNoire   •   Sat Nov 08 2014 at 01:39pm PST

Those that get the most media attention are often not the candidate. Think of Bill Clinton, virtually unknown as governor of Arkansas before getting the nomination. There are electable republican governors – Scott Walker for example, who has been elected 3 times now in a generally liberal state and withstood a very substantial onslaught. Many, perhaps most, governors do not get regular national attention. I would add that though Hillary is in the front of everyone’s mind right now, she has some significant vulnerabilities, and I would argue more vulnerabilities than some (most) democratic governors. I don’t think people are thinking broadly enough about the field and 2 years is an eternity in politics.

wstritt   •   Sat Nov 08 2014 at 10:08am PST

I’m guessing the view is one or more of: 1) the Republicans will overreach now that they control Congress pissing off the voters resulting in embrace of “anyone else” in 2016, 2) Democrat’s core constituency, many of whom were disenchanted by the President, will show up to vote again when Presidency is on the line 3) 5 million newly amnestied immigrants who have been distributed around the country will vote in gratitude for the party that let them stay in the country or 4) driven by the extremist wing of the party, the Republicans will nominate someone that is unelectable.

Politico   •   Sat Nov 08 2014 at 12:50pm PST

That sounds about right to me. Although, quite frankly, it may have less to do with some of these very sensible pieces of analysis than with the pure demographics of the country. The immigrant thing is huge — and I don’t necessarily mean just the recent (or about to be recent) additions; the influx of new citizens has been going on since this country began, and recent trends suggest that places like Texas may soon be blue because the Republicans have become more and more entrenched in their anti-anythingbutwhite posturing. Not to mention their alienation of gays, women, and just about every other important growing political block you can think of.

We still have the Electoral College after all, and it really doesn’t matter how many white Republicans vote for their candidate in the heartland because that’s not where the EC votes come from.

Your #4 is a good example of the ability of the OP (not so Grand anymore) to shoot themselves in the foot. The Mittster being the most recent example. He was a moderate when he was Guv in Mass, but in order to win the nomination, he had to have a personality transplant, and people didn’t forget that when he tried to become less extreme during the General.

BeteNoire   •   Sat Nov 08 2014 at 08:08am PST

I might also add the low approval ratings of the current president.

Rationales

"She's the front runner well liked, well known candidate"

unregistered_user_Qu!u4yuw bought Democratic at 57.40%
December 22, 2015 @ 02:54pm PST

"Incredibly weak and unfocused Republican party"

JimB61 bought Democratic at 65.87%
November 06, 2015 @ 11:31am PST

"its how it should be"

zstaticz bought Democratic at 66.13%
October 01, 2015 @ 07:53pm PDT

"hilary"

amanmahal bought Democratic at 65.65%
September 18, 2015 @ 03:47am PDT

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