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Who will replace Senator John Kerry* of Massachusetts in the Special Election to be held on June 25, 2013?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Ben Downing

(closed)

Predicted: 0.83%

Actual: 0.00%

Bill Weld

(closed)

Predicted: 0.77%

Actual: 0.00%

Ed Markey

(closed)

Predicted: 97.37%

Actual: 100.00%

Kerry is not confirmed as SoS and remains Senator

(closed)

Predicted: 0.35%

Actual: 0.00%

Martha Coakley

(closed)

Predicted: 0.72%

Actual: 0.00%

Mike Capuano

(closed)

Predicted: 0.78%

Actual: 0.00%

Scott Brown

(closed)

Predicted: 34.64%

Actual: 0.00%

Setti Warren

(closed)

Predicted: 1.01%

Actual: 0.00%

Someone else (primarily Republican Gabriel Gomez)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.63%

Actual: 0.00%

Steve Lynch

(closed)

Predicted: 0.80%

Actual: 0.00%

Ted Kennedy Jr.

(closed)

Predicted: 0.23%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

June 24, 2013 @ 05:08pm PDT

Predictions Made

196

Most by: SneakyPete (35 predictions)

Discussion

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myrrhman68   •   Tue May 07 2013 at 08:14pm PDT

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 01 2013 at 09:27am PDT

SneakyPete   •   Wed Mar 06 2013 at 07:30am PST

In blow to Lynch, AFL-CIO declines to endorse in Mass. Senate primary

Neither Reps. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) nor Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) reached the required number of votes to receive an endorsement from one of Massachusetts’s most prominent unions, the AFL-CIO.

It’s a blow to Lynch’s campaign, which is relying on union support to boost the candidate in the Democratic primary for the special election to replace Secretary of State John Kerry (D).

To receive the group’s endorsement, a candidate needed two-thirds support of the Executive Council. The Council could, with a simple majority vote, decide against endorsing altogether; failing to receive that, the Council moved on to vote on each of the potential candidates individually. Neither received the necessary numbers.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/285825-in-blow-to-lynch-afl-cio-declines-to-endorse-in-mass-senate-primary?utm_campaign=hillballotbox&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#ixzz2Mm2wAIkb

SneakyPete   •   Tue Jan 29 2013 at 02:07pm PST

The Senate approved one of its own to become President Obama’s second secretary of State in a near-unanimous vote on Tuesday.

Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) sailed through the chamber in a 94-to-3 vote, with Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) and Texas Sens. Ted Cruz® and John Cornyn® casting the only no votes.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Jan 27 2013 at 09:19am PST

Mass voters prefer competitive primary; Brown looks strong.

Brown leads a generic Democrat in a theoretical general election match-up, 44 percent to 36 percent. When matched up against Markey specifically, Brown leads 53 percent to 31 percent. The poll was conducted prior to news stories about Lynch’s potential entrance into the race, and does not include a head to head match-up between Brown and Lynch.

http://www.massincpolling.com/?p=784

Politico   •   Mon Jan 28 2013 at 05:56am PST

SneakyPete   •   Fri Jan 25 2013 at 09:57am PST

Lynch Will Run for Kerry’s Seat.

Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA) will run in the special U.S. Senate election to fill the expected vacancy if Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) is confirmed next week to be Secretary of State, the Boston Globe reports.

First Read: “If Kerry steps down from his Senate seat on Tuesday, the primary to replace him would have to take place between Sunday, May 12 and Monday, May 27. And the general would be between Sunday, June 23 and Monday, July 8. State law requires the general to take place 145 to 160 days after a vacancy is created. The primary is required to occur six weeks before that.”

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2013/01/25/lynch_will_run_for_kerrys_seat.html

SneakyPete   •   Sat Dec 29 2012 at 12:40pm PST

Democrats Rally Around Markey to Replace Kerry
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) said he supported Rep. Edward Markey’s (D-MA) decision to seek his Senate seat, “heaping strong praise on the Massachusetts congressman” and an aide says Kerry would vote for Markey in a special election, the Boston Globe reports.

Kerry’s statement was immediately followed by an endorsement from Victoria Kennedy, widow of the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Jr."

Mark Halperin notes Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Michael Bennet also came out for Markey.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/12/28/democrats_rally_around_markey_to_replace_kerry.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

SneakyPete   •   Thu Dec 27 2012 at 01:09pm PST

Ted Kennedy Jr.: Massachusetts Senate Run Won’t Happen.

Ted Kennedy Jr. (D), a son of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D), said he will not run for Senate in Massachusetts if John Kerry (D-Mass.) is confirmed as the next secretary of state.

“Although I have a strong desire to serve in public office, I consider Connecticut to be my home, and I hope to have the honor to serve at another point in my future,” Kennedy’s statement said, according to the Boston Globe.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/24/ted-kennedy-jr_n_2360100.html

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Dec 22 2012 at 05:39am PST

Nate Silver opines that “it is difficult to view Mr. Brown as much better than even money: he is a Republican in Massachusetts who lost an election by a reasonably clear margin just last month.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/us/politics/playing-the-odds-for-a-scott-brown-senate-comeback.html?_r=1&

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Dec 21 2012 at 07:16pm PST

A wide-open race at this point.

Rationales

"just to go against the odds."

SneakyPete bought Someone else (primarily Republican Gabriel Gomez) at 3.75%
June 08, 2013 @ 09:30am PDT

"A much closer race than what the markets is showing."

SneakyPete bought Someone else (primarily Republican Gabriel Gomez) at 4.90%
May 03, 2013 @ 11:54am PDT

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