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When will the Chang’e 3 lander touchdown on the moon?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Before July 2013

(closed)

Predicted: 0.28%

Actual: 0.00%

July 2013

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

August 2013

(closed)

Predicted: 0.20%

Actual: 0.00%

September 2013

(closed)

Predicted: 1.70%

Actual: 0.00%

October 2013

(closed)

Predicted: 0.79%

Actual: 0.00%

November 2013

(closed)

Predicted: 3.26%

Actual: 0.00%

December 2013

(closed)

Predicted: 97.31%

Actual: 100.00%

After 2013/Never

(closed)

Predicted: 2.69%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2013 @ 08:59pm PST

topic

Science

Predictions Made

135

Most by: GradualStudent (47 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

wstritt   •   Fri Dec 06 2013 at 09:42am PST

ecotax   •   Sun Dec 01 2013 at 03:41pm PST

GradualStudent   •   Fri Nov 08 2013 at 07:01pm PST

GradualStudent   •   Tue Sep 03 2013 at 06:50pm PDT

GradualStudent   •   Wed Jul 10 2013 at 08:04pm PDT

ecotax   •   Sat Apr 27 2013 at 02:16pm PDT

Currently planned to launch in december: http://www.dragoninspace.com/planetary/change3.aspx

ecotax   •   Fri Jan 11 2013 at 01:56am PST

I think China considers this project very important for their prestige, and is advanced enough, technologically speaking, to make their own ‘second half of 2013’ deadline. The chances of the whole thing blowing up or otherwise failing miserably should be no worse than that of the Apollo program. So I’m short on the ‘After 2013/Never’ option.

Rationales

"Only risk now is it spins out of orbit somehow keeping it from even crashing before year end."

wstritt bought December 2013 at 82.35%
December 06, 2013 @ 09:44am PST

"http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-12/05/c_132944843.htm"

GradualStudent bought December 2013 at 58.41%
December 05, 2013 @ 07:07pm PST

"100"

GradualStudent sold October 2013 at 10.06%
September 03, 2013 @ 07:53pm PDT

"scheduled to launch in December, weather alone might cause delay"

GradualStudent bought After 2013/Never at 29.31%
April 24, 2013 @ 11:44am PDT

historical trend

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