Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

When will Google's Project Glass launch?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED DATE

TODAY

Consumer Launch Date

(closed)

September 18, 2016

  • expired

Question ends

January 01, 2018 @ 09:00pm PST

Predictions Made

99

Most by: foobar (20 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Thu Jul 16 2015 at 02:00pm PDT

I’ve replicated this as a continuous date question here: https://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/65160.

We’ll leave both of them open.

wstritt   •   Thu Jul 16 2015 at 06:19pm PDT

On some of the markets where answer may be “never”, you need to stop extending them and bring them to closure, particularly since you can never cash out for what the stock is worth and in many cases never since you can’t push stock below current date. You don’t even get any benefit in your net worth since that reflects price as if you could cash out even if you are not allowed to.

This will (probably) next come up on the Pakatan Rakyat market where the answer is almost certainly “never”.

brnlsl (ADMIN)   •   Thu Jul 16 2015 at 01:16pm PDT

What do you guys think about us refunding this question and, if there is interest, replacing it with a new question with explicit bins covering periods of time?

Something along the lines of:
When will Google’s Project Glass launch?

2015
2016
2017
Not before 2018

foobar   •   Thu Jul 16 2015 at 01:28pm PDT

Given that I would lose $224k if this question was refunded, I am opposed…

sflicht   •   Thu Jul 16 2015 at 01:21pm PDT

That’s fine, although I still don’t understand why resolving or reopening it is so difficult. Is there a numerical issue of some sort?

brnlsl (ADMIN)   •   Thu Jul 16 2015 at 01:29pm PDT

:)

There was a little bit of user(admin) error combined with a minor bug, which led to some confusion as to the actual issue with question. We’ve got that figured out now and just want to make sure that what we do next is appropriate.

sflicht   •   Mon Apr 27 2015 at 02:45pm PDT

This needs to be resolved. Can’t hold it in limbo forever. The effect on points should be negligible because of how scores are calculated. That is, I believe it makes essentially no difference if you resolve it as Glass being released today or at some unknown date in the future.

wstritt   •   Mon Apr 27 2015 at 03:13pm PDT

I agree, particularly since answer might be “never”.

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Mon Apr 27 2015 at 05:38pm PDT

Why shouldn’t we just open this back up for continued trading?

wstritt   •   Mon Apr 27 2015 at 06:19pm PDT

Only because answer could be “never” which is a problem with these sort of date markets. As best I can tell, there is no announce or even rumored release date at this point with the betas (that were apparently generally available for sale to the public, but as $1500 betas) withdrawn from market.

Having said that, re- opening is better than leaving it closed and uncashed out. But it does beg the question of what happens if “never” actually turns out to be correct answer.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Jun 23 2015 at 06:54am PDT

Wstritt I agree with both yours and sflicht’s comments. Time to close out this market.

sflicht   •   Mon Apr 27 2015 at 06:32pm PDT

Agree that reopening is better than leaving it closed. But I think the way these questions are scored involves transforming the price range [0, infty) to some fixed date interval specified by the question author? So “never” is mathematically equivalent (up to infinitesimal amounts of potential profit and loss) to simply resolving at the upper bound of the prespecified date range.

sflicht   •   Mon Apr 27 2015 at 05:44pm PDT

My guess is that it’s already traded to the point where the marginal cost to move the predicted date any later is (for practical purposes) infinite. But I’m not 100% sure. It would be better to close this question and start a new one with a different scale.

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Sat Jan 26 2013 at 08:14am PST

What does “launch” mean? Some would consider it already launched given there are prototypes out there – does this mean publicly available in stores? Announced? Can you clarify in the description?

ZacharyKeth   •   Sat Jan 26 2013 at 08:29am PST

Thanks for your question. I mean the date the product publicly goes on sale for general consumers. I have updated the details to hopefully make this more clear.

Rationales

"read this somewhere"

tattanke sold at December 01, 2015
March 26, 2013 @ 04:00pm PDT

"They publicly stated it will launch in 2014"

atlantis bought at December 13, 2015
February 13, 2013 @ 02:14pm PST

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader

More information about the possible answers

Consumer Launch Date