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Which Horse Will Win the 2013 Kentucky Derby on May 4?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

1 Black Onyx (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

2 Oxbow (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.85%

Actual: 0.00%

3 Revolutionary (10-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 12.99%

Actual: 0.00%

4 Golden Soul (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.83%

Actual: 0.00%

5 Normandy Invasion (12-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 5.45%

Actual: 0.00%

6 Mylute (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.95%

Actual: 0.00%

6 Flashback (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 6.05%

Actual: 0.00%

7 Giant Finish (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.40%

Actual: 0.00%

8 Goldencents (5-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 18.26%

Actual: 0.00%

8 Hear the Ghost (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.84%

Actual: 0.00%

9 Overanalyze (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 10.85%

Actual: 0.00%

9 Shanghai Bobby (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.84%

Actual: 0.00%

10 Palace Malice (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.92%

Actual: 0.00%

10 Govenor Charlie (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.00%

Actual: 0.00%

11 Lines of Battle (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.31%

Actual: 0.00%

12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.80%

Actual: 0.00%

13 Falling Sky (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.31%

Actual: 0.00%

14 Verrazano (4-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 13.30%

Actual: 0.00%

15 Charming Kitten (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.89%

Actual: 0.00%

16 Orb (7-2)

(closed)

Predicted: 8.78%

Actual: 100.00%

17 Will Take Charge (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.66%

Actual: 0.00%

18 Frac Daddy (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.40%

Actual: 0.00%

19 Java's War (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.83%

Actual: 0.00%

#22 Tiz a Minister

(closed)

Predicted: 1.56%

Actual: 0.00%

20 Vyjack (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.14%

Actual: 0.00%

War Academy

(closed)

Predicted: 0.99%

Actual: 0.00%

21 Fear the Kitten (N/A)

(closed)

Predicted: 3.40%

Actual: 0.00%

#21 Code West

(closed)

Predicted: 0.38%

Actual: 0.00%

#18 Super Ninety Nine

(closed)

Predicted: 2.05%

Actual: 0.00%

Rydilluc

(closed)

Predicted: 2.22%

Actual: 0.00%

#20 Den's Legacy

(closed)

Predicted: 0.50%

Actual: 0.00%

Uncaptured

(closed)

Predicted: 0.74%

Actual: 0.00%

Field (any other horse not listed)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.43%

Actual: 0.00%

#25 Power Broker

(closed)

Predicted: 1.35%

Actual: 0.00%

Departing

(closed)

Predicted: 1.35%

Actual: 0.00%

Merit Man

(closed)

Predicted: 0.27%

Actual: 0.00%

20 Titletown Five (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 2.27%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

May 04, 2013 @ 11:09am PDT

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

190

Most by: MFWinAlford (67 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

bobdevine   •   Tue May 07 2013 at 10:19am PDT

Can this be closed out?

bobdevine   •   Sat May 04 2013 at 10:52am PDT

With a few hours to go, I’m tempted to cover multiple horses using a common theme.

Theme 1, War theme – War Academy, Revolutionary, Palace Malice, Lines of Battle, Normandy Invasion, and finally Java’s War.
Theme 2, Mineral/metal theme – Black Onyx, Orb, Golden Soul, and Goldencents.
Theme 3, Y not – Itsmyluckyday, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy, and Mylute. (and others)

Am I just Overanalyze-ing? Okay, I’ll go with my old system of betting by the color of the jockey’s silks…

bobdevine   •   Fri May 03 2013 at 05:37pm PDT

lecufr   •   Fri May 03 2013 at 05:21pm PDT

So does my short on Black Onyx still stand or do I need to cash it out?

SneakyPete   •   Fri May 03 2013 at 05:32pm PDT

Leave it as is. Originator will cash it out.

SneakyPete   •   Fri May 03 2013 at 04:46pm PDT

Sadly, Black Onyx is out of the Kentucky Derby — but will the twenty-second contender move up into the list for Saturday’s race? A few days before the official 139 Kentucky Derby, it appeared that the contenders list was set in stone. However, a day before the race, Black Onyx was scratched from the list due to an ankle chip.

http://www.examiner.com/article/22-carving-on-kentucky-derby-2013-contenders-list

MFWinAlford   •   Fri May 03 2013 at 08:34am PDT

In case anyone cares, my picks for this weekend’s big races are:

Kentucky Oaks
8 Dreaming of Julia

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
9 Point of Entry

Kentucky Derby
8 Goldencents

other horses that look good in the Derby:

14 Verrazano
16 Orb
12 Itsmyluckyday
5 Normandy Invasion
3 Revolutionary
9 Overanalyze

SneakyPete   •   Fri May 03 2013 at 11:22am PDT

Take your word with 50 on 8 Goldencents. Hope it will be the luck of the race gods and wins.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 01 2013 at 03:39pm PDT

Okay, the list now reflects actual post position (wagering) numbers for the Derby, along with Morning Line odds. No more than 20 horses will start, so if no horses are scratched between now and 9 AM on Friday, Fear the Kitten will not be running.

Orb is now the Morning Line favorite over undefeated Verrazano. Mylute would probably be listed at 30-1 if he had a different jockey, but the crowd loves to bet on Rosie!

chelseaboys   •   Wed May 01 2013 at 04:46pm PDT

Including me. Bet 650 ingles to win 24,000! Go Rosie!!

MFWinAlford   •   Wed May 01 2013 at 09:36am PDT

Here is the final list of entries. Post positions will be drawn beginning at 5 o’clock this afternoon, and I will modify the descriptions here to include those numbers and the Morning Line odds.

http://www.drf.com/news/2013-kentucky-derby-field-odds

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Apr 29 2013 at 03:27pm PDT

“Code West, Governor Charlie, Tiz a Minister, and Winning Cause all were officially taken out of consideration for the Derby.” http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-fear-kitten-brings-field-even-20

This may represent the final field, but we won’t know for sure until Wednesday, when entries close and post positions are drawn.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Apr 24 2013 at 04:45pm PDT

Do we know jockeys yet?

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 24 2013 at 06:17pm PDT

Mostly, yeah. There could always be last-minute changes, but they are listed in the 6th column here: http://www.drf.com/events/kentucky-derby-top-20-churchill-downs

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 24 2013 at 04:03pm PDT

Last update before the final field is known. There may be one or two changes near the end of the list, but this is very close to the entries who will go to the post on May 4. Post positions will be drawn a week from today, and I will post the final 20 then. Good luck!

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Apr 21 2013 at 03:53am PDT

Several horses on this list are probably not going to run, including War Academy and Den’s Legacy. Rydilluc and Uncaptured are also unlikely starters. Still, I won’t cash them out till their connections make an official announcement. Code West and Super Ninety Nine are two other horses considered doubtful, but they have enough points to qualify.

Power Broker is definitely out, Departing has departed, as has Merit Man.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 24 2013 at 10:05am PDT

No surprise here, as noted, but it is now official: http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-super-ninety-nine-dens-legacy-will-not-run

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Apr 11 2013 at 02:50am PDT

Lots of changes in the top 20 this week. The two big prep races this weekend will go a long way toward determining the final lineup.

In the Blue Grass at Keeneland, several contenders will be trying to move up or secure a place in the final 20. Java’s War may go off as the favorite, having finished 2nd to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby. Other horses in this market looking to pick up some points are Uncaptured, Rydilluc, and Palace Malice.

The Arkansas Derby may determine the fate of Falling Sky, Oxbow, and Overanalyze.

So, things are still wide open with no clear favorite in this bunch, and the Kentucky Derby only 3 weeks away.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Apr 08 2013 at 03:54am PDT

Flashback has been withdrawn because he will need surgery to remove a bone chip.

http://www.drf.com/news/flashback-kentucky-derby-trail-knee-chip

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Apr 07 2013 at 09:07am PDT

Based on his performance in the Wood, I really am liking the prospects of Normandy Invasion for the Derby. Another furlong and he might have overtaken Verrazano.

MFWinAlford   •   Fri Apr 05 2013 at 03:35am PDT

Hear the Ghost has been scratched from the Santa Anita Derby because of an undisclosed injury.

Also, Shanghai Bobby was removed from consideration after a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Florida Derby.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Apr 02 2013 at 12:11pm PDT

Thanks for the efforts. I know markets like this are a lot of work. Ahhh, Derby Day. I can almost smell the horseshit, I mean roses!

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Apr 02 2013 at 04:43pm PDT

Yes, a labor of love. As I think you know, I have a retired racehorse that I ride whenever possible. I obviously didn’t need to go into this much detail, but it’s one of my favorite days of the year. Enjoy the aroma!

Rationales

"horse breeding"

Tbahv!9a bought 10 Govenor Charlie (20-1) at 2.95%
April 11, 2013 @ 11:28am PDT

historical trend

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9 Shanghai Bobby (15-1)