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Will the surviving Boston bombing suspect, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, be tried FIRST by federal courts or a military commission for his part in the Boston bombings?




Does not get to trial


Predicted: 10.41%

Actual: 10.41%

Federal Court


Predicted: 86.76%

Actual: 86.76%

Military commission


Predicted: 2.82%

Actual: 2.82%

  • refunded

Question ends

May 05, 2013 @ 09:59pm PDT

Predictions Made


Most by: SneakyPete (5 predictions)


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chelseaboys   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 12:02pm PDT

Sneaky, If you are going to refund the close, why not open it too?

joshpcma   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 11:55am PDT

Again being TRIED is different than being CHARGED. Also, even you admit that there is still a slim chance “for some unknown reason the trial will not go forward.” Seems premature to close the question.

joshpcma   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 10:27am PDT

Why is this closed then if there is still another outcome possible (in your case death prior to trial)? Being charged in Federal court and being tried in on are two different things. If the question was one about where he was charged first then I would agree as to the closing of the question, but that is not the question here.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 10:40am PDT

A brief answer to your question is what the market is asking: “Will the surviving Boston bombing suspect, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, be tried FIRST by federal courts or a military commission for his part in the Boston bombings?”. He is alive and talking and will tried in the Federal Courts for his crime and not a military commission for his part in the Boston bombings.

joshpcma   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 09:59am PDT

Isn’t it still possible that this does not get trial? Even though they have said he will be tried in Federal court, could he not make a deal an avoid being tried in a court?

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 10:21am PDT

No way in my opinion. The heinous crime he participated in, will not go on punished. No plea bargain is likely. The only way I can see no trial is if he passes away. The feds have taken the lead on a trial.

London Bridge   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 11:32am PDT

Fleas are never a bargain. Neither is this question, which is totally bogus, for the reasons given by others. It was paid out before the conditions were met. There has been no trial, and there won’t be one for a long time it seems:

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 11:55am PDT

We can disagree as the market being bogus. It is not. He is going to be tried FIRST in a federal court not a military commission. The condition as where he is going to be tried FIRST was met. Agreed that the trail will be a while in coming, as such, I will refund the market.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 09:44am PDT

Boston bombing suspect charged, will not be treated as enemy combatant.

The announcement came as a federal complaint was filed against suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. Fox News has learned that the suspect made an initial appearance in front of a federal magistrate judge at the hospital where he still is being treated. Fox News also confirmed he was advised of his Miranda rights. No plea was entered.

Carney stressed that the civilian system has been used to try, convict and incarcerate “hundreds of terrorists” since the 9/11 attacks, including the Times Square attempted bomber. “The system has repeatedly proved that it can successfully handle the threats we continue to face,” he said.

Carney noted U.S. citizens — like Tsarnaev — cannot be tried in military commissions under U.S. law.

Read more:

SneakyPete   •   Sun Apr 21 2013 at 07:10pm PDT

Badly wounded Boston Marathon bombing suspect responding to questions.

Despite a serious throat wound preventing him from speaking, the surviving Boston Marathon bombing suspect is beginning to respond to questions from investigators, federal officials tell NBC News.

Nearly 48 hours after he was taken into custody following an intense gun battle and manhunt, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19, was communicating with a special team of federal investigators at Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital. He was responding to questions mostly in writing because of the throat wound, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The suspect remains in serious condition.

The throat wound may be the result of a suicide attempt, investigators said.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Apr 22 2013 at 02:35am PDT

OMG, I can’t believe he’s at BI. I’m scheduled to go there in just a few hours for a brain study. Sounds like he’s in no condition to do more harm, but the place is going to be crawling with cops! (Just to be clear, I’m a subject in the study, not a neuroscientist — they love to prod and poke my autistic brain — this study is about how the autistic brain ages compared with the neurotypical brain.)

After that, I’m helping to run a support group in Watertown, in an office only half a mile from the famous boat. Creepy.

mvguy   •   Sun Apr 21 2013 at 01:29pm PDT

There’s also the possibility of a state trial. Or he could be tried in more than one jurisdiction.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Apr 21 2013 at 01:46pm PDT

Agree that there could, and probably will be, state charges filed against him. However it appears that the Federal charges will be dealt with first, and if need be, followed by the state charges. The market intended to address the FIRST trial that occurs. I will clarify the question. Thanks for the comment.

Best4Lowell   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 11:11am PDT

If you knew the answer, why did you ask the question? Just to get a few inkles? I think mvguy was making a valid point; you never had a “none of the above” answer, so now this question will be in limbo for weeks if not months before the outcome is known.

SneakyPete   •   Tue Apr 23 2013 at 11:38am PDT

First off, I did not know the answer, to the market. It could have gone either way, Fed or Military commission. A State trial first, was not an option, in my opinion based on the nature of the crime. Secondly, The market was answered when the Feds took the case over the military. Finally, Based on the markets wording it was only asking if would be tried FIRST by the federal courts or a military commission for his part in the Boston bombings. I added the third option of no trial in the event for some unknown reason the trial will not go forward which is very doubtful.

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