Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Which US city hits 95F first in 2013?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

(none by Sept 1st)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

(tie)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.17%

Actual: 0.00%

Chicago

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

Cleveland

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

Minneapolis/St.Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

New York

(closed)

Predicted: 99.51%

Actual: 100.00%

Pittsburgh

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 16, 2013 @ 10:00pm PDT

topic

Regional

Predictions Made

213

Most by: towstore (121 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

towstore   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 07:16pm PDT

According to Weatherstreet. com,the high temp today at JFK was 91 degrees, I would appreciate a URL that confirms the temp alleged. Strange that the regional high temp would occur along L I Sound. Heat index is not “temperature”, I suspected Bob Devine is reporting the Heat Index. Ironically there were thunderstorms in the vicinty around 3:00 pm EST.

wstritt   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 07:45pm PDT

Weather underground say it hit 96 at JFK though peak in Central Park was only 94.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2013/07/15/DailyHistory.html

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2013/07/15/DailyHistory.html

wstritt   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 07:39pm PDT

Weather.com says NY hit 100 at 3:05PM today. No clue where they take their reading.

http://www.weather.com/weather/today/New+York+NY+USNY0996:1:US

bobdevine   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 07:38pm PDT

This NOAA weather log for JFK says the temp maxed out at 97 today.
The 16:51 hourly reading was 95. The 97 max temp is shown on the 19:51 record.
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html

NYC’s weather was on a rollercoaster today. It rapidly rose in the morning to touch 95 by early afternoon. I cashed out the question when that happened. Then clouds rolled over the city and temps dropped a couple degrees. Finally, the clouds cleared and temps climbed over 95.

towstore   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 08:14pm PDT

why do you give dead links?

wstritt   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 08:22pm PDT

Probably need to cut and paste entire URL and put into your browser. For some reason, end of link is not live. Those more technically competent than me might know why. MFWA knows how to convert to “tinyURL” or something like that but I’ve never spent the time to figure it out.

bobdevine   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 02:28pm PDT

Sorry for the confusion!

New York’s weather has a long history. There are old habits of which of the many weather reporting stations is official. Some media sites used old ones.

The most accepted station for a big area is at the JFK airport. It is currently reading 95F and might climb another degree at the next hourly report.
http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=NYZ072&local_place=New%20York%20NY&zoneid=EDT&offset=14400

chelseaboys   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 03:09pm PDT

OK

chelseaboys   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 02:15pm PDT

Perhaps the problem is: “What id the official location of NY, NY’s temperature?” When I input New York, NY into NOAA, it goes to Central Park. not the airport (which one, anyway?). So, maybe somone knows the answer to that….

bobdevine   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 01:46pm PDT

This airport site is currently showing 97. Other regional sites had 6-hour max temps of 96.
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KEWR.html

chelseaboys   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 02:04pm PDT

From your May 18th comment: “I’ll use the official NOAA reports for a city. So if some reporting stations nearby exceed 95 but the official one doesn’t, it won’t count.”

I’m not complaining because I made inkles; however, I still think towstore has a point…. This was about NY, NY, not Newark, NY.

towstore   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 01:20pm PDT

NWS @ 4:17 92 degrees! What’s going on?

towstore   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 01:15pm PDT

So what was the site of the 95 degree reading. It’s 4:00 pm my sources say 90 degrees.

chelseaboys   •   Mon Jul 15 2013 at 01:32pm PDT

bobdevine   •   Thu Jul 04 2013 at 07:52pm PDT

CHANGE TO QUESTION — ending date changed from Aug 1st to Aug 17th.

I’ll cash out as soon as a city gets to 95F, or the “none” choice gets 100% if none of the 5 cities get that hot by Sept 1st.

towstore   •   Sat May 18 2013 at 03:45am PDT

For a “tie” two cities on same day? Also official temp for Chicago is O’Hare?

bobdevine   •   Sat May 18 2013 at 09:36am PDT

Yes, if two cities reach 95 on the same day, it will be a tie.

I’ll use the official NOAA reports for a city. So if some reporting stations nearby exceed 95 but the official one doesn’t, it won’t count.

I hope the choice of cities gives enough unpredictability and similarity for a fun question.

Please add a comment of a city reaching 95 if I miss it.

This question runs live until one (or more) of the cities hit 95.

chelseaboys   •   Fri May 17 2013 at 06:18pm PDT

Does none mean of these 5 cities only?

bobdevine   •   Fri May 17 2013 at 07:23pm PDT

Yes, if none of those 5 cities hit/exceed 95 degrees, then “none” gets 100%. I think Phoenix has already topped 95 in 2013.

By the way, this question is a repeat from 2012 when Chicago was the surprise winner.

Tom501   •   Fri May 17 2013 at 11:38pm PDT

In Vegas we have already topped 100. It’s going to be a long summer.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader